2018 IDP Projections: Indianapolis Colts

Tom Kislingbury

As per last year, I’ll be sharing projections for every team in the NFL. I use past production in specific roles for each team’s scheme to work out realistic production profiles. You can see how accurate I was in 2017 in my IDP Projection Marking series.

The Colts were a bad football team in 2017. And it was down to far more than just Andrew Luck being hurt. They were bad pretty much at every level. Injuries were a major part of this (at quarterback, on the offensive line, at cornerback…) but they were a bottom five team in all pro football.

This year they have a brand new coaching staff (after the embarrassing Josh McDaniels incident) and brought in a solid haul of players in a very interesting draft. Hope springs eternal for every team in the NFL but the Colts could be set for an immediate bounce back year.

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

Defensive tackle

word image 68

With the Colts switching to a 4-3 base, front tackle becomes much more important – and potentially productive. The team has multiple options at the position but right now, it seems Al Woods will be the nose with Denico Autry getting the first crack at the under tackle role.

Autry is by far the most intriguing. He’s played a lot of edge in his career and has the explosiveness needed to penetrate on the interior.

TyQuan Lewis is also a wildcard. He could easily play on the edge but it seems he’ll be used as a rotational piece on the inside. Woods is unlikely to see the field on passing downs so it’s very possible Autry and Lewis see plenty of time together.

Defensive end

word image 70

Jabaal Sheard was one of the more unappreciated players of 2017. He finished 15th in total pressures with 66 (five more than Everson Griffen’s 61) but because he only recorded four sacks (Griffen had 12), people don’t think he was good. Sheard is now a DE – which suits him more – and is still a great value buy even now, which shows how little attention many people are paying.

The team has shown a predilection towards rotating edge players through their off-season activities and in OTAs, Tarell Basham received plenty of first-team snaps. They also drafted Kemoko Turay with a high second round pick though. It seems both of them will get on the field and have the chance to stake their claim. Turay is more of a pure edge-bender and will likely be a situational pass rusher in the same way Dante Fowler or Ezekiel Ansah are used. He may even get some time at Sam linebacker.

Basham was hugely disappointing as a rookie but has been getting positive press under the new coaches in the new scheme. He’s one to watch but certainly a gamble.

John Simon rounds out the group. There are plenty of rumors of him not actually making the team at all which shows just how quickly fortunes can change for IDPs.

Inside linebacker

word image 72

The Colts drafted Darius Leonard with the 36th overall pick in the draft. This is about as clear a signal as you can give that you are unhappy with the current options. With Jon Bostic gone, Antonio Morrison and Anthony Walker are a pedestrian pair of players and Leonard has potential to come in and take over the positional instantly. It’s asking a bit much for him to be an instant top-tier producer (that just rarely happens for LBs) but he has a higher ceiling than the other options.

Morrison is the more established of the veterans here and should be on the field more. Walker only played 115 snaps in 2017 and they all came in the final three games. Even with a new coaching staff, it’s tough to see him leap up to every-down player status. It seems he’ll be another entry in the long book of late-round linebackers the IDP world falsely puts their faith in.

Cornerback

word image 73

Quincy Wilson missed nine and a half games of his rookie season and played just 402 snaps in 2017. That was frustrating for everyone involved – given how decimated by injury the rest of the options were – but it sounds like he’s finally fully healthy going into 2018. A solid but unspectacular season seems like a sensible prediction.

Fighting for snaps behind him is a group of ne’er-do-wells and frankly, it seems likely that no one will manage to win a job for the full season. More chopping and changing seems likely with the end result being no IDP stars.

Safety

word image 74

The controversy here is a training camp battle between Matthias Farley (who played well last season) and Clayton Geathers (who had a handful of impressive games back in mid-2016). This seems a no-brainer. Geathers commands no loyalty to the regime in charge and Farley was impressive enough last year that we should expect him to continue as a weekly starting safety.

Manning the free safety spot will be second-year Malik Hooker. He was drafted relatively early in many rookie drafts due to name value but is unlikely to ever be a reliable IDP for you given where he lines up on the field. He’s very much a specialist one-deep safety.

Stud

Matthias Farley. Farley managed to finish sixth amongst all safeties in tackles last season and could easily replicate that sort of return. Assuming he wins the job (and he should) there’s no reason not to believe he’s a top 12 safety.

Disappointment

Kemoko Turay. I’ve been a huge advocate of Turay since the draft. In a class short of true edge-benders Turay has length and agility that can’t be taught. But he does have some holes in his game (namely lack of experience or a history of playing high volume) that could prevent him being an immediate hit. Don’t be put off though. Yannick Ngakoue, Ezekiel Ansah, Frank Clark and Danielle Hunter have all flourished with the same limitations. That’s not to say Turay is on their level but he has the potential.

Dark horse

Jabaal Sheard. As mentioned above, Sheard was a really effective player in 2017 but is being ignored by far too many IDPers because his low sacks don’t look that enticing. Picking up a few more this year should be a no-brainer and he’s certainly flashed the ability to potentially reach double digits.  If that happens, he’ll be a top-ten end.

Summary

This defense is genuinely exciting.  Last year was a disaster but this team has all the hallmarks of a defense that could drastically improve.  Every year, we see a defense or two drastically improve from a low base (the Saints in 2017 were a good example) and the Colts could easily manage that.

Thanks for reading.

[/am4show]

tom kislingbury