2018 IDP Projections: Green Bay Packers
As per last year, I’ll be sharing projections for every team in the NFL. I use past production in specific roles for each team’s scheme to work out realistic production profiles. You can see how accurate I was in 2017 in my IDP Projection Marking series.
The Packers seem to be among the most traditional of NFL teams. The players borrowing kids’ bikes, the small-town vibe, the classic uniforms, the snow… It all adds up to being pretty stable. But for the first time in a while, we’re looking forward to a brand new defense in Titletown after Dom Capers was shown the door as defensive coordinator.
Mike Pettine takes over after a year away from the league, but we’ve got a pretty good idea of what he’ll bring to the table schematically: We know he’s a Rex Ryan disciple. Namely, that means exotic blitzes and an aggressive scheme that’s a nightmare for quarterbacks to decipher. It’s going to be fun for sure.
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Defensive tackle
Under Capers, the Packers ran a lot of fronts with only one or two linemen. Pettine says he’s going to mix three and four-man line concepts (as has become more common in recent years) which should mean Kenny Clark will have plenty of playing time. He played around 680 snaps last year which is impressive for a nose tackle. Clark is still young and has an excellent chance to continue his development into a top tackle. His lack of pass rush probably prevents him being a top IDP DT but he’s good enough to be relevant.
Montravius Adams should be the second tackle and if Pettine is true to his word, has a chance to be on the field more (he only played 65 snaps last season).
Defensive end
Mike Daniels is one of those IDPs who has been over-drafted in recent years. Everyone knows he’s a really good player, but the scheme has never really given him the chance to record big numbers. Pettine is likely to ask both Daniels and Muhammad Wilkerson to do more. Daniels absolutely has the chance to be startable but he’s just not the sort of pure edge rusher that can be an IDP star.
Wilkerson has come out of this projection particularly poorly, which no doubt will cause some objections. A handful of sacks won’t be surprising at all but he’s a good example of a big-name IDP who will struggle to be an elite player. Wilkerson only has eight sacks over his last two seasons and his 2017 was bad enough (just three and a half sacks) combined with his attitude issues that he was chased out of town. As an IDP owner, you need to be smarter than just buying into a “now he’s in Green Bay he’ll rededicate himself to football” narrative. That’s lazy.
Inside linebacker
Blake Martinez had a breakout season (whatever that is) in 2017 with 142 total tackles. As a result, he’s been extremely highly valued. Which seems fair. He’s still clearly the best inside linebacker in Green Bay. Some caution needs to be taken though. He’s had one just good year which was at least partially due to high volume (he played 982 snaps). With the change of coach (Pettine does not have a history of top end LB1s), it’s entirely possible Martinez slips back into the pack of good-not-great producers.
Behind Martinez, Jake Ryan and rookie Oren Burks are fighting for snaps. Burks has got a lot of hype too given his draft capital but it’s unlikely he’ll end up being a three-down player which limits his ceiling – at least in 2018.
Outside linebacker
Nick Perry is being drafted extremely late, even in leagues that reward OLBs. This may well be partially due to the boring-name phenomenon but it’s an exploitable error. Perry has 18 sacks from just 1,100 snaps across the past two seasons and should be getting more hype than he is. Perry is an efficient and effective pass rusher who should be in line for a volume boost.
Clay Matthews has just turned 32 but it’s important to remember he had a resurgence in 2017. He played 660 snaps and had seven and a half sacks. He’s been written off by many IDP players but is still worth owning.
Cornerback
This is a weird situation. The Packers have invested three top-50 picks in corners in the last two drafts. Playing those three (King, Jaire Alexander and Josh Jackson) together would likely be a disaster but they’re all going to get on the field at some point.
Cornerback is enormously variable and although it’s never a good idea to go out buying corners in mid-summer, it currently seems Kevin King looks set to have a very strong season. Pettine has a history of using a high amount of man coverage and although King is no longer a rookie he played just 382 snaps in 2017. He’s the favourite to play early and often on the outside and could have a similar year to Ronald Darby when he was a rookie on the Bills in 2015. Pettine was gone by then but Rex Ryan was in charge and their systems are very similar.
Safety
Josh Jones played in a few different ways in his 2017 rookie season. Early in the season, he played as an ersatz linebacker, but later in the year Jake Ryan got more playing time there and Jones played more as an orthodox safety. Again, this could all easily change with the new coordinator. Many in the IDP world think Jones is installed as a LB cheat code but this is far from certain, especially given Oren Burks was drafted who is a prototype hybrid LB/S.
The safety with the safest job is Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. He is the clear starter at free safety. Although he’s a deep player, he has been efficient with an average of 71 solo tackles per season over his four-year career. He’s also averaged over 1,000 snaps per season which is a very high bar. Obviously, it would be great to see him remain fit but five fully fit seasons in a row for a safety is a big ask.
Stud
Kevin King. It’s hard to predict corners but King really does look like the best bet at the position right now. If you can’t call the model’s top overall player at his position a stud then when can you say that?
Disappointment
Blake Martinez. Martinez is likely to still be productive but he’s being taken as the LB9 at the moment. A failure to return on that seems extremely possible.
Dark horse
Josh Jones. Treating him as an extra linebacker with a safety tag is optimistic but it’s still possible. If he does play that sort of role, Jones can be really effective and productive, but it’s not a sure thing at all.
Summary
It’s always tough to see how a scheme will shake out under a new coordinator and this situation seems especially flexible. Mike McCarthy has been in place for a long time and will likely have some input on how the defense is game-planned but we also have a good idea of Mike Pettine’s ideas and history. One thing is for sure – there’s a lot of potential for impact players at all three levels of this defense.
Thanks for reading.
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