2018 Summer Sleeper: Los Angeles Rams

In our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series, DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.

To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:

Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.

Because we aren’t going to give you the likes of mainstream sleepers, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Adam Thielen is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.

As a unit, the Los Angeles Rams themselves were somewhat of a sleeper last season, posting an 11-5 record, winning the NFC West in the process and making the playoffs. That came only a year after finishing a miserable 4-12. Their 2017 finish broke a streak – stretching all the way back to the 2003 season – of finishes that were at, or usually below, the .500 mark.

The last time I did a sleeper article for the Rams the team was still in St. Louis, Jeff Fisher had just signed on to become their head coach, Sam Bradford was at the helm, Steven Jackson was their bell-cow running back and my choice to be their sleeper that season was Danny Amendola, a player who went on to lead the team in targets and receptions that season before moving on to New England, and now Miami. As, at best, a tangent side note, isn’t it weird that Amendola’s career is the exact opposite, in terms of order of teams he has signed with, to that of Wes Welker’s? Anyhow, moving along.

This season, no one is taking the Rams for granted and many of their offensive starters are on the radar of nearly everyone. Josh Reynolds would have been a clear sleeper this season had the Rams not made a trade to acquire Brandin Cooks, pushing Reynolds back into the non-starter ranks of Los Angeles’ depth chart.

Furthermore, both of the Rams’ young tight ends, Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett, appear to be splitting snaps so evenly that they hurt each other’s fantasy value. This left me with only one real option to highlight this season…

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John Kelly, RB

Category: Deep Sleeper

Kelly was drafted by the Rams in the sixth round of this year’s draft, filling a pressing need for a, hopefully, reliable option behind Todd Gurley, the team’s, and the league’s, leader in yards gained from scrimmage last season. Now, while many dynasty owners are likely aware of Kelly due to his landing spot with Los Angeles, he is likely to be on the waiver wire in all but the deepest of dynasty leagues. That said, his potential, and even the situation he finds himself in is undeniable. Kelly will likely start training camp as third on the Rams’ running back depth chart behind the aforementioned Gurley and, fellow sleeper, Malcolm Brown.

Brown appears poised to hold onto the number two role at least at the start of training camp, but make no mistake, his position on the depth chart is in clear danger. Kelly is a bit more dynamic than Brown and could leapfrog him before the end of the preseason. Los Angeles could be playing an interesting game here where they feature Brown early in the preseason as a way to drive up his value before trading him away to a running back-needy team that has suffered one or more injuries or suspensions to their running back corps.

Gurley himself is playing in the fourth year of his rookie contract with a massive fifth-year option of $9.6 million dollars already exercised and guaranteed by the Rams unless an extension is signed. It is highly likely Los Angeles will work hard to hammer out a deal with Gurley over the coming months, but so much of that deal will be dictated, internally, by the looming deal of Aaron Donald, and externally, by that of fellow elite running back, Le’Veon Bell.

While it seems likely the Rams will do everything they can to get a deal with Gurley done, the potential exists that his asking price may just be too high for the Rams to keep. Also, running back is a position particularly susceptible to injuries, of which Gurley is not immune. In the unfortunate event that Gurley is required to miss any time, Kelly could be the best suited to carrying the load and would be the running back with the closest skill set on the Rams’ roster.

Between contract disputes, the high price tag on elite running backs, and the potential for injury to the position, Kelly would make a very solid add to any taxi squad. The potential also exists that he could see enough snaps on his own with Gurley as the starter, to be a flex option in his own right. The Rams appear to be signaling a desire, and maybe even a need, to lighten Gurley’s workload so as to extend his career. Last year alone, Gurley carried the ball 279 times and was targeted through the air another 87 times, to say nothing of when he was used in pass protection. That kind of sustained workload will increase the chances of injury and will chip away at his effectiveness and longevity.

Kelly could be in a prime position to relieve Gurley of, at least, a percentage of that workload. Last year, Brown accounted for 63 rushing attempts and another 11 passing targets out of the backfield. Given the dynamic nature of Kelly’s game, that work, and more, could be moved to him as early as this season.

While I would not advocate adding Kelly in leagues with shallow rosters, or those owners looking for immediate starting potential, he is a very solid value for those owners in leagues with deep rosters and taxi squads who are willing to take a chance on a young player with undisputable upside.

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