How likely is it that Keenan Allen keeps his 27% target share from 2017? Is DeAndre Hopkins more or less likely to see a drop in volume after going over 30% in targets in 2017? Will Jarvis Landry see the kind of volume he had in Miami in Cleveland?
The answer to those questions are: I don’t know. But I can tell you about how players with enormous target shares have fared in the past. Hopefully this can provide some context for high volume players going into 2018.
In that context, the answers are: he probably will be close, he probably won’t by much, and maybe now.
Based on all wide receiver seasons from 2000 to 2016, players with high target volumes tend to keep those high target volumes. I’ll also show you something about the ones who didn’t.
I’m using data from ffstatistics.com for all of these tables and tools.
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Peter Howard
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
Latest posts by Peter Howard (see all)
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Slick M.
July 22, 2018 at 7:03 am
excellent research Peter. Keep it coming. All of this good data begs another question: how can we determine when a WR is on the brink of joining the WR1 ranks? Are there any hints at the season (or 2) before a player makes the jump to rock solid WR1 market share? Can we follow scheme? coaches? draft pedigree? measurables?
It is crystal clear the WR1 is the foundation of any winning dynasty team. Your data reinforces why we all do everything we can can to acquire one and why we keep them forever. Personally, I traded for Keenan a few years back (before the fluke injuries) and acquired Demaryius early on after his achilles injury. My latest project is Corey Davis, who i got at the 1.01 last year and also added Mike Williams (certainly not a WR1 with Keenan there, but physically profiles as WR1) and Chris Godwin (high upside/baller mentality).
Peter Howard
July 23, 2018 at 12:26 pm
I just did a research project on when WR’s break out, but that was based on 800 and 1000 rec yard seasons
-2nd year is actually the most common
-Before year 4 1st rd draft picks more likely
-After that breakout rate stabilizes somewhat across draft rounds
-players with lower breakout ages more likely to breakout even within the draft rounds
As for indicators for WR1 breakouts, I’d watch the target shares, they are more stable then yards and targets by themselves, but honestly by the time tgt share become over 20% we already know, I’ll try to look for more indicators but at this point, I just thinking about hit and breakout rate is more dependable
@lateroundQB has a good episode on breakout wrs looking on at overperfomingADP though which might help
thanks for checking it out,
Peter Howard
July 23, 2018 at 3:50 pm
I checked it out, WR1s breakout in the same pattern
https://twitter.com/pahowdy/status/1021527233146617857
Slick M.
July 24, 2018 at 4:07 am
thanks Peter! very helpful.
Peter Ruohoniemi
July 22, 2018 at 9:29 am
I think your data has some incorrect information. Steve Smith from Carolina. Never played for NYG. Was a completely different Steve Smith.
Peter Howard
July 23, 2018 at 12:27 pm
Yes there are two steve smiths in the dataset, I separate them by draft year, do the same for multiple Mike Williams fyi
I’ll check to see if they became entangled but assure you it would not change the trend at all.
Mark Wilcox
July 22, 2018 at 9:32 am
Love that I own 5 of these guys 🙂
Mark Wilcox
July 22, 2018 at 9:33 am
And none rhyme with Farve’s Pantry.. 😉
Peter Howard
July 23, 2018 at 12:28 pm
congrats 😉
Leo Guidroz
July 22, 2018 at 5:09 pm
Great piece, Peter. I wish OBJ would have been in the 2017 numbers. Not sure why, but I see both Antonio and OBJ dipping a little, but still 25% in 2018. My rival has for the c’ship has OBJ and AB. I have Hopkins, Edelmann (Sanu for 4 weeks) and Hilton. I m hoping to keep pace.
Peter Howard
July 23, 2018 at 12:29 pm
Sounds like a nice lineup
Mitchell Springer
July 23, 2018 at 3:24 am
I wonder how the target share changes when the QB changes. I’m thinking along the lines of Thielen. While the numbers show his target share should stay high the following year, does Kirk coming in throw a wrench in that?
Peter Howard
July 23, 2018 at 12:31 pm
Someone asked me this on twitter and I dug it out: https://twitter.com/pahowdy/status/1021163431074902017
” I found 43 players who had changed qbs but not years in year n+1 (next year) who had 27%+ Targets, only 12 of those players dropped below 21% in tgt share (an WR1 tgt share) the next season”
Targets are about the player a lot more then the qb, coach or situation imo