2018 Summer Sleeper: Green Bay Packers
In our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series, DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.
To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:
Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.
Because we aren’t going to give you the likes of mainstream sleepers, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Adam Thielen is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.
There are quite a few options in Green Bay worth consideration as sleepers – all of them wide receivers.
With Jordy Nelson moving on after his release, only Davante Adams and Randall Cobb remain as trusted targets for Aaron Rodgers. Even with the addition of tight end Jimmy Graham in free agency, there’s the potential for another pass catcher to be relevant for dynasty owners in 2018.
After drafting a trio of late round wide outs back in April including J’Mon Moore (6’3” – 205 pounds) in the fourth round, Marquez Valdes-Scantling (6’4” – 206) in the fifth, and Equanimeous St. Brown (6’5” – 214) in the sixth, the Packers were obviously looking for a big receiver to fill the void left behind by Nelson’s departure. Each of those rookies – along with holdovers such as Trevor Davis and DeAngelo Yancey provide some level of upside. It’s another veteran receiver who has my attention this off-season, however.
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Geronimo Allison, WR GB
Category: Sleeper
Since signing with the Packers as an undrafted free agent following the 2016 NFL draft, Allison has dipped in and out of relevance for dynasty owners – posting just 35 catches for 455 yards and a pair of touchdowns in 25 games. Although the stats above aren’t a direct indication of a breakout in 2018, there are reasons for optimism for Allison’s prospects going forward.
The reason to be optimistic when considering Allison for the 2018 season and beyond can be tied to one word – opportunity.
Many may raise an eyebrow towards the suggestion that Allison is talented enough to post numbers good enough to crack starting lineups for dynasty owners. It’s difficult to strike down that point of view considering his 4.67 40-time and 33-inch vertical at the combine just a couple years ago, but I point to his opportunity to play with one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL as enough to overcome his shortcomings.
Despite his weaknesses, Allison is a high-point catcher that has worked hard over the last two seasons to become a better route runner and remove the drops that plagued him in college. Rodgers’ pin-point accuracy and history of using all of his weapons as well as turning average (or even below average) receivers into productive fantasy options is impossible to ignore.
That brings me to Allison’s second opportunity of this off-season.
Although the third wide receiver in Green Bay is, by all accounts, an open competition this summer, all indications out of Titletown are that Allison will have the first opportunity to grab hold of the job. Dynasty owners should also keep in mind that whomever wins that third wide receiver role, will likely be playing a majority of their snaps on the perimeter, as Cobb plays inside almost exclusively. And while many might snicker at what a third wide out in a passing offense that already is sure to feature Adams, Cobb and Graham, the Packers have a history of generating multiple productive receivers for dynasty owners – as well as turning waiver wire fodder in dynasty leagues into useful pieces.
With all that in mind, let’s take a look at how the outside receiver opposite the WR1 in Green Bay has fared over the last five seasons leading up to Rodgers missing much of last season.
* – Missed Games to Injury
^ – Rookie Season
While these stats don’t paint a perfect picture of what to expect from Allison in 2018, it certainly proves that the Packers can turn relatively unknown receivers into values for dynasty owners. And while some of that production has been due to injury to the top pass catchers in Green Bay and some has been due to the emergence of truly talented players, the fact that Rodgers has helped make depth receivers that were complete unknowns or castaways by many dynasty owners into flex options for at least stretches of seasons is quite valid.
Now, many of you may be saying to yourselves that the chart above simply glazed over Jimmy Graham and his almost assured role as a primary threat in the Green Bay offense. Let’s quickly take a look at the production from the tight end position over that same span.
Obviously, none of the names listed among these tight ends are in the same class as Graham, but it’s worth noting that the Packers weren’t completely oblivious to the tight end while still making their third option at wide receiver a relatively big part of their offense. In fact, over these five seasons the tight ends listed here averaged 57 catches for 597 yards and 5.4 touchdowns. Graham averaged 57 catches for 683 yards and six touchdowns over his three seasons in Seattle.
Most agree that there’s little doubt Graham will surpass those numbers now that he has the benefit of playing in Green Bay and with Rodgers, but it’s once again noteworthy that Packers tight ends have put up similar numbers to Graham.
There’s still one opportunity Allison has the potential to take advantage of in 2018 that I want to bring to light, and that’s the sheer volume a Mike McCarthy offense affords the third receiver.
For years, the Packers have been among the league leaders in three-plus wide receiver sets. Last year, despite having an athletic tight end in Martellus Bennett (for at least some of the season) and the loss of Rodgers to injury, the Packers still had at least three wide receivers on the field on 747 of 999 offensive snaps (74.77%) according to Jason Wilde of the Wisconsin State Journal. Despite the addition of Graham, McCarthy’s stubborn play calling makes that unlikely to change which will give somebody a chance to be on the field with Rodgers a lot in 2018.
So what does all this mean? That Allison is sure to break out in 2018?
Hardly.
There are plenty of holes in the theory that Allison could post similar numbers to those Adams, Jones or even Boykin have over the last handful of years.
First, he has to win the job as the primary option opposite Adams and hold onto it throughout the season. Some out there at least question how plausible that is, particularly after the Pack drafted those three wideouts with similar skill sets to Allison.
Next, he has to earn the trust of his quarterback in the same way that many before him have. There are some who feel that has started to happen and point to the surge of targets Allison got late in the 2016 regular season and into the playoffs as well as the six catch, 122 yard effort he posted in week three before Rodgers got hurt last year, as evidence of growing chemistry. I’m not sure that’s enough to pencil in Allison’s name as a trusted member of Rodgers pass catching posse, but it’s at least a start.
Thirdly, McCarthy and the Packers coaching staff has to actually use a third wide receiver, meaning they have to refrain from simply splitting Graham out wide in three receiver sets. While a personnel group including the 6’7”, 265 pound tight end flanking out wide is intriguing, it’s not likely – at least not as their regular three-wide package.
Finally, even if those first three things happen, Allison’s upside is directly tied to Rodgers’ health. It’s clear from last year’s horrible stretch without him that Rodgers needs to be on the field for Allison (or whomever lines up opposite Adams) to be successful, and last season is a painful reminder of that. For those that forgot. Here is the previously-omitted 2017 line of the chart from above.
And if you remember back to early last season, Nelson posted 25 of those catches for 290 yards and all six touchdowns with Rodgers under center for the first six weeks while still spreading the ball out to his other targets. Further evidence of what Rodgers can do with all of his targets and that the Packers have the potential to have more than just Adams, Cobb and Graham as playmakers for dynasty owners in 2018.
While I don’t have any idea who the third receiver in Green Bay will be this season, it seems like Allison is the most likely to take over that role. And with an ADP of 178 in July, his cheap price tag makes him a nice target in trades – particularly for those looking for a throw in during negotiations.
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