2018 Summer Sleeper: Indianapolis Colts

Eric Hardter Posted On July 18, 2018

In our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series, DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.

To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:

Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.

Because we aren’t going to give you the likes of mainstream sleepers, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Adam Thielen is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.

There’s no sense in burying the lede here. When I consider Colts running back Christine Michael…

Hold on. My editors just informed me it’s 2018, not 2014. Apologies, and cue the Greyjoys – what is dead may never die.

The Indianapolis Colts are facing arguably some of the biggest roster turnover in the league, as well as maintaining some of the best drama. There’s the elephant in the room – whether or not quarterback Andrew Luck will return, and if so, how will he look? There was the departure of veteran Frank Gore, leaving a running back room full of journeymen and unproven, fresh faces. Eric Ebron, he of the Michael-esque Teflon reputation has entered to challenge incumbent Jack Doyle who, incidentally, was about the only consistent piece on last year’s team. And finally, there’s a receiving corps who, outside of standout T.Y. Hilton, has little to nothing in the way of proven production.

Given the totality of the above, a case could be made for upwards of four to five players to be considered Indy’s Summer Sleeper. With question marks at seemingly every position, this might be the single most unpredictable team in the league. But that certainly doesn’t mean we can’t mine for value, does it?

Amidst all the turmoil, I’d posit the largest volume vacuum exists amongst the wide receivers, perhaps lending possibility to that grouping having the largest amount of potential fantasy viability. To wit, factoring out those no longer with the team (Donte Moncrief, Kamar Aiken, Quan Bray and Matt Hazel), the holdovers from the 2017 roster could only muster a combined line of 80-1,250-5 last year, “good” for 235.0 PPR points. You’re reading that correctly – the entire returning collection of Colts receivers would’ve finished as the 2017 PPR WR10.

Clearly not blind to this fact, the team added Daurice Fountain and Deon Cain in the NFL Draft’s fifth and sixth rounds respectively, and they’ve already settled in as the second (Cain) and third (Fountain) most valuable receivers on the roster, per DLF’s July ADP. However, it’s a leap to expect immediate contributions from any rookie receiver, let alone those selected so late. In the case of Cain, it’s also fair to reason that his stature as a former devy darling is influencing his ranking relative to his peers, as contrasted to his collegiate output and draft status. Personally, I’ll choose to look elsewhere to see a sleeper emerge, and will instead look to…

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Ryan Grant, WR

Category: Deep Sleeper

Low-key, Grant may have had one of the strangest non-injury or suspension related off-seasons of any NFL player. Originally signed to a four-year, $29-million contract by Baltimore, Grant ultimately found his way to the Colts on a significantly more modest one-year, $5-million contract following some dirty pool (allegedly) by the Ravens front office, as they released him with a nebulous injury designation and subsequently signed Michael Crabtree. As the Ravens continued to load up on pass catchers, via both free agency and the Draft, it’s possible that from a production perspective this release wound up becoming a blessing in disguise.

Of course, it’s important to mention the likely rationale behind Grant’s surprise release stemmed from the fact that this is a young man who, despite being in the league for four years, still doesn’t have 1,000 total receiving yards to his name. In fact, his best season came just last year, when he corralled 45 of 65 targets for 573 yards and four scores. The efficiency (8.8 YPT, 1.94 PPR PPT) was certainly nice, but his upside was decidedly capped, with a 5-80-1 type of line constituting his ceiling. With that said, he still managed to check in as the Redskins third-leading receiver and was more efficient than his peers in doing so.

The Redskins – Grant’s former team – were also distinctly deeper at the pass catching positions, boasting the likes of Jamison Crowder, Josh Doctson, Terrelle Pryor, Jordan Reed, and Vernon Davis. Some, if not all of these players were either injured or disappointing in 2017, but they still possess significantly more in the way of proven pass catching ability than do Grant’s new Colts compatriots. While it’s not my favorite argument (“He couldn’t beat out the guys on his previous team, but…”), it’s a fair one – Grant’s obstacles in Indy are definitively fewer.

If the previous paragraphs didn’t sell you on Grant, I doubt his physical profile will do a much better job. He has reasonable size (6’0”, 204 pounds), but put forward subpar speed, strength, and explosion metrics in the 2014 NFL Combine. He was sneakily above average in close quarters, checking in at the 88th and 76th percentile for the three-cone drill and 20-yard shuttle, respectively, but there’s little else for him to hang his hat on. Perhaps his best, but also most abstract quality is that his former coaches seem to love him – tying this into the above and hammering home the point one last time, when competing with unproven rookies, this type of trust could be enough to get him on the field early, in and of itself.

It’s also imperative to remember we’re playing a game of shifting probabilities here. If X, then Y, so to speak. So, let’s ask ourselves the pertinent questions, and analyze the potential results. Think back to the “choose your own adventure” books you might have read as a kid:

1. Will Grant win the WR2 job in Indy?

If yes, we’ll continue to the next question. If no, you’ve died (Eric Ebron and his famously steady hands dropped something very large and heavy onto your head). You can stop reading here.

2. Will Andrew Luck be healthy enough to play?

If yes, we need to dig into Luck’s viability and how long it takes him to knock the rust off. If no, sorry, you haven’t made it to end of this adventure. Donte Moncrief ran you over in his Brinks truck after signing his new contract.

3. Will Andrew Luck perform as in years past?

If yes, continue reading. If no, I’m sorry. You came close but chose the wrong grail. You challenged an “angry” Robert Turbin to a fight and lost.

If you’ve made it this far, you’ve “won” and gained the knowledge that a reversion to previous form for Luck will result in a preponderance of fantasy points to the tune of a weekly 22.4 completions for 272.5 yards and 1.9 touchdowns. For those of you doing the math, that’s a hair over 61 PPR points per week that he’ll spread around to his pass catchers. Hilton will get his, as will the tight ends and running backs. But we’ve previously seen the WR2 of Luck-led offenses compile the following lines (2015 excluded as he only played seven games):

2012: 50-861-7, 178.1 PPR points

2013: 38-503-2, 100.3 PPR points (in seven games)

2014: 64-779-2, 153.9 PPR points

2016: 33-528-2, 97.8 PPR points

None of this is world-beating, and in 2016 was even worse than Grant’s output last year. But there is a ceiling here, around 150-180 PPR points, that could result in a high-end WR3 finish. What more could you want from a man currently being valued as the WR97, with an ADP of 229.83?

There’s also one last bit of intrigue. I don’t know if I’m a big believer in sports psychology or clumsy clichés, but if I was, this is the guy to whom I’d apply them vociferously. Given the way he was treated by the Ravens, I’m not sure if anyone could possibly have a chip on his shoulder larger than Grant’s. Combining that with the one-year, bet-on-himself, prove-it deal, and the man has practically created his own redemption narrative. Being the afore-mentioned “Coach’s pet” is the cherry on top (he’s probably a gym rat, too).

Is any of the above overly sexy or enticing? No, but we’re talking about a deep sleeper here, and also about a guy who’s not even the most famous NFL Ryan Grant of the past decade. These players are buried in our collective dynasty consciousness for a reason and will likely require a confluence of events to gain any sort of fantasy relevance. I’m not saying Grant will pan out in 2018, but if you’re considering help for the end of your bench, or for a possible bye week replacement, he’s at least worthy of your consideration.

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.