The Rise and Fall of Kelvin Benjamin

Noah Ballweg

What if I told you four years ago that Kelvin Benjamin would currently hold the same ADP data as he did a month into his rookie season? Would you believe it? I certainly would not have.

Benjamin has become a very interesting study over the last few seasons. In a matter of years, he has gone from a first round pick, to now being in danger of falling outside the first ten rounds in startups.

The answer to this curious case remains unexplainable. What has happened to the former first round draft pick over the last four years?

Regardless of the speculations, theories and hot takes that are swirling around, in this article I will break down the statistics and story lines in Benjamin’s career that explain his case of fluctuation.

The question you should really be asking is: will Kelvin Benjamin find the fountain of youth or has his short-lived stardom come to an abrupt halt?

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When DLF’s April ADP data was released just months ago, Benjamin came stumbling into the ninth round with an ADP of 116.5. If you look just four years prior to when the 23-year-old from Florida State was drafted, (28th overall pick) he also held an ADP of 115.2 with many skeptical of how the receiver would fare at the professional level.

Before we address the current issues that are causing owners to drop Benjamin left and right, let’s re-analyze the course of history that has led him to this point.

Rookie Explosion

After catching 19 touchdowns and 1,500 yards at Florida State, Benjamin picked up right where he left off with the Carolina Panthers. In his rookie season, he caught 73 passes for a team high 1,008 yards and nine touchdowns.

By the end of November, the hype train was in full flow. Benjamin had been targeted 110 times, caught eight touchdowns and had already posted over 800 yards receiving. In a matter of months, his 115.2 ADP skyrocketed to its highest at 22.5 (first round) with many believing his 6’5” frame truly was the future of the NFL’s receiving corps. One shadow that unfortunately continued to follow Benjamin around was his issue with drops. In just his rookie season alone, he saw 11 catchable passes slip through his hands, something he had struggled with significantly in college.

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Statistics from Pro Football Reference.

ACL Injury

In late August of 2015, Benjamin saw his ADP plumet from 35.3 where he had been averaging for nearly a year, to 59.25 (fourth round). This downfall was due to an ACL tear that he suffered to his right knee during practice. Unfortunately, the injury came so late in the preseason that many owners were left having wasted their first or second round draft picks in startups.

Though the injury dropped his immediate value, just seven months later, Benjamin’s ADP had again climbed even higher than it was previous to his injury.

Comeback

Benjamin had much to prove in his year long absence from the playing field. He quickly shook off any rust, and silenced the critics by posting 13 receptions, 199 receiving yards and three touchdowns in his first two games back. He would go on to have a very consistent and solid season, totalling seven touchdowns and over 900 yards receiving.

In his 2015 absence, the Panthers brought in veteran receiver/return man Ted Ginn Jr. and drafted a standout receiver out of Michigan, Devin Funchess.

Despite what many would chalk up as a terrific fantasy season, the ADP data suggested something else. With Greg Olsen, Ginn Jr. and Funchess all cutting into the target share that Benjamin had dominated his rookie year, dynasty owners began to quickly doubt the future consistency of his production. As the 2016 season progressed, Benjamin’s ADP regressed and by July 2017, his ADP had fallen to 67.3 (mid fifth-round), a low point that he would never truly recover from.

Downfall

Prior to the start of the 2017 season, expectations were high for the Carolina offense which had struggled to meet expectations the year prior. In addition to the added pressure on the offense, Benjamin showed up to OTAs in some of the worst physical shape in his career. Some reports suggested he weighed in at 280 pounds, 35 pounds over the weight he had been playing at.

Based on images from the OTAs, you would probably agree to not wanting him as the key piece to your roster in comparison with the typical wide receiver frame.

Thankfully, he was able to cut his weight down before the beginning of the regular season, but with the addition of Christian McCaffrey and the emergence of Devin Funchess, Benjamin really seemed to have lost his focal point in the Carolina offense.

Prior to being traded to the Buffalo Bills, he had only caught 32 passes for less than 500 yards in eight games. After the trade, Benjamin expressed more of the behind-the-scenes frustrations, stating that he didn’t want to be in Carolina since he wasn’t being targeted like a number one receiver.

What Now?

Since December, Benjamin’s ADP has fallen from 59.5 (fourth round) to 120.83 (tenth round) with a very bleak outlook on his future. Nearly every take that I have heard on him from dynasty owners is the same: Because of the situation that he is in with Buffalo, he is being written off and sold for nearly nothing. Plain and simple, owners do not want any part of the Bills offense.

A surgery to repair a torn meniscus to the same knee he injured in 2016 has consumed his off-season thus far. Now just months away from fall camp, Benjamin appears to be getting back to full strength as he shakes off the rust of surgery.

At the ripe age of 27, Benjamin could still have a handful of years ahead of him with consistent and solid fantasy production. With the ADP downfall he has taken over the past year, he can be acquired for very cheap via trades, and would even now be considered a sleeper pick in dynasty startups. I would expect his ADP to climb back up as August approaches, but he should remain at best a seventh round startup pick.

He will undoubtedly be the Bills number one wide receiver and should be getting the targets he was accustomed to his first three years with Carolina. Benjamin is a high risk in startups right now, but if you have the extra roster space, I would suggest acquiring him in dynasty leagues that have been running for a while. I’m predicting he bounces back for at least two more seasons to the level he had been playing at before.

What are your thoughts? Are you steering clear of Benjamin, or would you take a chance on acquiring him now while he is at his cheapest? Share your thoughts below.

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