2018 Summer Sleeper: Carolina Panthers
In our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series, DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.
To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:
Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.
Because we aren’t going to give you the likes of mainstream sleepers, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Adam Thielen is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.
After trading wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin and losing tight end Greg Olsen to injury for the bulk of the season, the Panthers were desperately short on pass catchers in 2017. To that point, WR1-by-default Devin Funchess was the only receiver (not including Benjamin) to collect more than 33 targets. He and running back Christian McCaffrey each accrued 113 looks, with the next closest player way back at 47 (tight end Ed Dickson).
As an acknowledgment of the above, Carolina went out of their way to bolster their pass-catching corps during the off-season. Receiver D.J. Moore was selected in the first round of the NFL Draft, and appears likely to earn a big role right out of the gate. Torrey Smith was acquired via trade, and Jarius Wright was picked up in free agency. Perhaps as a hedge on Olsen’s age and health, developmental tight end prospect Ian Thomas was made the first pick in the Draft’s fourth round. Even newly-signed running back C.J. Anderson has been known to dabble, with 103 career receptions, and 16 more across five playoff games.
Given the totality of these additions, it’s decidedly dicey to forecast passing game prowess past the quartet of Olsen, Funchess, Moore, and McCaffrey. This becomes even more challenging considering quarterback Cam Newton has only attempted more than 500 passes in a season twice, with his most voluminous season occurring as a rookie. Quite amazingly, tossing out a 2014 campaign truncated due to a car accident, and Newton has had between 473 and 517 passing attempts in each of his other seven years. In short, this is no Air Raid offense.
As such, my choice for Carolina’s Summer Sleeper likely doesn’t make a heck of a lot of sense on the surface. Still, given his age, prior draft capital, and relative uniqueness amongst his peers, there remains a chance for fantasy viability. With a current dynasty ADP of 202.67 (WR85), it certainly can’t hurt to make an investment in…
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Curtis Samuel, WR
Category: Deep Sleeper
There’s “out of sight, out of mind,” and then there’s Samuel. Despite being selected as the 40th overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft (yes, the one that was barely over a year ago – said draft capital is the only thing keeping him from being labeled a super deep sleeper), Samuel has seen a swift decline in dynasty value, as evidenced by the chart below. 
While he was never thought of as an elite asset (his ADP peaked at 111.83), Samuel’s ADP has fallen roughly 90 slots since June, 2017. This change was most pronounced between May and June of this year, with a drop of 25 spots following the drafting of Moore. Surrounded by rookies in bad situations (Mark Andrews, Mark Walton, John Kelly, and Jaylen Samuels provide the bread in his ADP sandwich), Samuel has become an afterthought in just one year’s time.
Based on his rookie output, it’s easy to see why. The Ohio State alumnus was only able to corral a meager 15 of his 26 targets for 115 yards, “good” for 7.7 YPR and 4.4 YPT. These are dreadful numbers, but they also beg a larger question – was Samuel the disease, or was he a symptom?
Newton is far from one of the league’s most accurate quarterbacks and has only eclipsed a 60% completion percentage twice. In 2017, he completed 59.1% of his passes for only 6.71 YPA. Based on the table below, Samuel clearly wasn’t the only pass catcher to suffer.
While Samuel’s numbers remain miserable, consider the catch percentages of the other major players in the passing game. McCaffrey led the bunch, but obviously ran a much different route tree than his compatriots. Meanwhile, Olsen and the outside receivers also had difficulty converting (side note: Kelvin Benjamin is underrated as a player, and I’ll never be convinced otherwise). Again, Samuel still suffered in terms of YPR and YPT, but it’s fair to remember that this will be the case for most slot receivers when compared to their outside counterparts.
Samuel also began his season after being 21 years old for less than a month. Yes, we’ve seen our share of success stories at such an age, but for a “slash” player in college (he had more rushing attempts than receptions as a Buckeye) doubling as one of the youngest players in the league, shouldn’t it be fair to expect a bit of a learning curve? This doesn’t completely absolve him of blame, but it should certainly be a contributing factor.
Ironically, following the surprising trade of Benjamin, Samuel was actually beginning to come into his own a bit. In the first game without the big fella, Samuel logged a 75% snap rate. In the second game, he had a season-high with five receptions for 45 yards (on seven targets) in little over a half of football prior to succumbing to an ankle injury and being lost for the season. While his moment was decidedly short-lived, it’s fair to believe the Panthers had plans for their young rookie.
Unfortunately, injuries remain a concern. Samuel was lost for the year with a broken ankle and ligament damage and is reportedly still not 100% recovered. He also suffered from back and hamstring issues during the course of the season. While this could be more noise than signal, you can’t make the club from the tub, and Samuel needs to get and stay healthy.
If he’s able to do so, however, there remains a path forward. I mentioned earlier that he brings a different dimension to the offense, and despite the selection of Moore, Samuel could still carve out a role. Funchess appears locked in at one outside receiver slot, and Moore could man the other. If this were to come to fruition, Samuel would more than likely be in a direct battle with Jarius Wright for slot work. However, if Moore plays inside, Samuel would likely be a man without a country.
At his cost, however, this is a chance worth taking. I believe the Panthers were looking to get Samuel the ball more, perhaps at the expense of “extended handoffs” to McCaffrey. If so, and even with the addition of Moore and return of Olsen, Samuel could still fill a niche in the offense.
At the end of the day, this is a team that, outside of Olsen, is still lacking in the “proven playmaker” department. With 4.31 40-yard dash jets and “Swiss Army” abilities, Samuel has the potential to bring a different dynamic to the offense. While it remains a long shot, I wouldn’t be surprised if the stars align and this sleeper awakens.
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