Don’t Go for Joe

Bobby Koch

I recently returned from my honeymoon and was going through some ADP data when I noticed a player who stood out to me-Joe Mixon. Any discussion of him is bound to involve some discussion of his ugly behavior in college. The question, for many, is does that color how you feel about him? I’d be lying to say that it didn’t make me root against him a bit. You might be thinking: why should I trust anything you say about him now? Well, everyone has biases whether they are subconscious or not. At least I’m willing to admit to mine. If you can’t trust someone who admits they have biases, who can you trust?

Rookie season

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

I should start by acknowledging that I underestimated Mixon’s rookie numbers. I thought he had something like 700 yards from scrimmage and had been outplayed by Giovani Bernard. That’s not quite the case since Mixon had 913 yards from scrimmage last season in only 14 games played. That’s an impressive total. Or is it? Here is a complete list of rookies running backs who have totaled 900 yards from scrimmage since 2007.

word image

If you notice, 40 have accomplished the feat. There are quite a few on this list who have gone on to have major fantasy success. However, as you get further and further down the list you notice names like Roy Helu, Mikel Leshoure, Tre Mason, and Thomas Rawls. They didn’t all have the draft pedigree of Mixon, but I’d argue there are just as many fantasy misses who accomplished the feat in their rookie year as there are fantasy hits.

Here’s the other thing: Mixon was touted as an elite rusher coming out of college. It’s understandable when you total 1,274 yards as a sophomore. However, that changed quite a bit once he got to the NFL. Of 35 running backs who had at least 125 attempts last season, Mixon ranked 31st in his rush yards per attempts. The others around him? DeMarco Murray, Samaje Perine, Jonathan Stewart, Adrian Peterson, and Ameer Abdullah. I’m fairly certain outside of Murray last year, none of those running backs were filling with you the warm and fuzzies.

I should probably mention that the Bengals’ O-line was ranked 28th out of the 32 teams by PFF at the end of the season. A bad O-line can make finding an opening to run through tougher than finding the castle that Princess Peach is in. That said, it doesn’t speak well for Mixon that the Dolphins O-line was ranked worse than the Bengals and yet Kenyan Drake managed to have the fourth-best yards per attempt in the league.

You may find yourself saying, “you’re ignoring Mixon’s pass-catching ability”. That’s completely fair. I’m impressed that Mixon managed to catch 30 of his 34 targets.  To his credit, of running backs who had at least 30 targets last season, Mixon had the second best catch percentage. He also had the ninth-best yards per reception. He’s shown that he has the chops to handle himself in the passing game, and as we’ve seen with Melvin Gordon, that can make up for a lack of what is normally considered good rushing numbers. The ability to be in all on three downs is something that is becoming rarer in the NFL, and something that is highly valued.

That’s ignoring a very key component though. Remember when I mentioned Gio Bernard earlier? His main role on the team is to catch passes. Over the last three seasons, Bernard has the tenth-most receptions of any running back. In fact, according to ffstatistics.com, in PPR formats last season, Mixon had five games where he rated as the RB24 or better. Bernard had six while playing behind Mixon. To be transparent, Bernard played 16 games to Mixon’s 14, but only one of his top 24 finishes came while Mixon was out.

Enough about the past though. I’m sure many of you think there are improvements in store for Mixon in his sophomore season. Let’s see if we can find the reason for that.

The situation

Let’s begin with Marvin Lewis. I know coaching isn’t the end all be all, but schemes and plays matter. When someone has been a coach as long as Lewis has, they have certain usages they like to get out of players. Of course, the talent level of the player matters. You’re not going to call running plays if you generally haven’t had good running backs. Rudi Johnson provided the Bengals with three RB1 seasons, and the other belongs to Jeremy Hill in 2014. Four out of 15 seasons doesn’t exactly inspire confidence that he’s a coach who gets the best out of his running backs.

It isn’t fair to lay the blame directly at Lewis’ feet. He is more of a defensive-minded coach, and the team has cycled through different offensive coordinators including Bob Bratkowski, Jay Gruden, Hue Jackson, Ken Zampese, and Bill Lazor. I don’t think I need to tell you that the Bengals went through three different coordinators in three seasons.

They’ve decided to bring back Bill Lazor which provides some consistency, so let’s take a look at what Lazor’s fantasy success with the running back position looks like. Lamar Miller twice finished as a fantasy RB1 when Lazor was the coordinator for the Dolphins. I don’t think we can count Mixon’s finish last season against Lazor, since he took over part way through the season.That means in two of three seasons coaching, Lazor has coached a fantasy RB1. Not bad at all.

The Bengals also spent a first-round pick on center Billy Price and traded for Cordy Glenn to improve their O-line. However, as pointed out by Tyler Buecher, Glenn graded out as a much better pass blocker than run blocker.

It remains to be seen if either of these players are true upgrades for the run game, but at least the Bengals know there is a problem and are actively trying to fix it

So, what about Giovani Bernard then? He has two years left on his contract, but after this season the Bengals can get out from it for less than $1 million in dead cap. It wouldn’t be that shocking to see him end up a cap casualty. Those words should be music to Mixon truthers’ ears, but not so fast!

The Bengals just drafted Mark Walton in the fourth round of the 2018 rookie draft. Walton wasn’t exactly a pass catching specialist in college. In fact, Mixon was generally better at catching passes than he was. So he may not be a true threat, but it’s still worth noting that he’d be around if Bernard left. Mixon had a few targets a game even with Bernard around last season, but I never see him as more than a 40 catch sort of player at best.

Additionally, the Bengals ranked dead last in total offensive yards last season. You’d have to imagine there has to be some improvement, right? I guess it depends how much you trust a 31-year-old Andy Dalton. For me, the answer is not much. It’s possible that John Ross takes a step forward and helps the team out, but the Bengals didn’t do much to address their skill players in the draft. A.J. Green can only put the team on his back for so long before it breaks, so I’m not sure I’m as confident as others are that this team will be an improved offense. That means that Mixon’s red zone opportunities may not necessarily go up.

Conclusion

There are reasons to believe that Mixon will improve upon his rookie season. There are also reasons to be skeptical that Mixon is a late second round startup value. Part of his price is due to the inflation of the running back position – a league-winner the past few seasons. Still, at the end of the second, what does Mixon have to do fantasy wise to justify his price?  In PPR leagues last season, Ezekiel Elliot finished as the RB12 with 203.2 points. Joe Mixon had 141.3 points last season.  How much volume would Mixon need to score an extra 60 points and justify his RB12 price?

I know Devonta Freeman has had a few concussions lately, but I’d still take the player who finished as the top running back in all of fantasy as recently as 2015 over Mixon. In fact, Freeman missed two games last season and still managed to finish as the RB13, and the year before was the RB6. That’s why it surprises me that Freeman is going eight picks after Mixon. Not to mention the fact that at pick 22 you’d be taking Mixon over the likes of Tyreek Hill, Brandin Cooks, and Travis Kelce. I’d take the proven elite producers over Mixon any day.

It’s possible that taking Mixon in the second round of startups pays off for you, but you’re buying him at his ceiling. If I owned any Mixon shares in any league right now, I’d be looking to cash out. Perhaps you should approach the Freeman owner. You might be able to get Freeman and something else for Mixon, and that my friends would be turning lemons into lemonade.

[/am4show]