Mixon It Up?
Much has been said about Cincy running back Joe Mixon’s rookie season. Unfortunately, little of it was positive, and for good reason. Calling his statistical output “pedestrian” would be an overwhelmingly kind use of the word, as the second-round pick slogged his way to a mediocre 3.52 YPC on the year. But is it possible that the hate has gone overboard?
While I’m not going to argue that Mixon’s freshman campaign was anything other than a disappointment, I believe there are some rays of sunshine peeking through the clouds. As such, let’s get started on trying to discern some reasons for positivity! After all, the man has an ADP of 22.5 (RB12) to live up to!
Summary
In the below table are Mixon’s stats from the 2017 season.
The above allowed Mixon to finish the year as the PPR RB30, or a mid-level RB3. As alluded to in the previous paragraphs, it was hardly the stuff of legend, but I believe peeling back the layers a bit provides some much-needed clarity. First, consider the young man’s progression as the season proceeded.
Seasonal Rushing Splits
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The next table shows Mixon’s rushing output as broken down by the season, half-season, and quarter-season.
Without wanting to seem too simplistic, it’s blatantly obvious that the guy just got better as the year went on. When comparing his second half to his first, Mixon turned 18 fewer carries into 58 additional yards, good for a net positive change of 1.38 YPC, and 0.76 YPC better than his season average. The change is even more pronounced when breaking the year into quarters, as Mixon increased his YPC by 0.60, 0.75, and 1.17, respectively. Though it’s fair to point out that Mixon’s final “quarter” of the season only consisted of one game plus change, he very clearly showed well when on the field. “Second-half Joe” would’ve finished with a higher YPC average than eight of the top 12 NFL leading rushers. Not bad.
Additional Game-flow Splits
There were a couple of additional nuggets within Mixon’s 2017 profile that I found interesting. The first is that the numbers detailed above weren’t game-flow dependent, as he averaged 3.49, 3.53, and 3.59 YPC when the Bengals were leading, trailing, or tied (94, 55, and 29 carries, respectively). He also did his some of his best work when the games were tight, averaging 4.02 and 4.09 YPC when the team was either leading by 1-8 points or behind by 1-8 points (64 and 45 carries, respectively).
Finally, his “workhorse” usage outpaced the rest of his production on the season. For this exercise, I defined “workhorse” usage as 18 or more carries in a game, as the average number of rushing attempts per game for the top-ten running backs (by rushing volume) was calculated to be 18.3. Mixon had four such games, and rushed for 321 yards on 79 carries, good for 4.06 YPC. This accounted for over half his rushing output, and outpaced the rest of his seasonal production by nearly a full yard per carry.
Comparisons to Teammates
Much of the negative press regarding Mixon centered around how he performed relative to his peers, namely Giovani Bernard. On the season Bernard was better, and there’s no sense denying that. His 4.36 YPC was nearly a full yard better than Mixon, and he also corralled an additional 13 receptions. The difference was most apparent on first down plays, when Bernard averaged 5.07 YPC and Mixon only 3.29. Bernard, however, became less effective on second/third downs, averaging only 3.65 YPC, as compared to Mixon’s 3.86 YPC. I don’t have the answer as to why this was, and it may be nothing more than trivia, but it’s fascinating to note nonetheless.
Most surprisingly, despite the lesser efficiency, Mixon was actually (ever so) slightly better than his teammate at picking up first downs. On the season 19.66% of Mixon’s runs resulted in the chains moving, as compared to 19.05% for Bernard. Despite the massive YPC disparity, Mixon’s “real world” prowess somehow outpaced Bernard’s. I’m a firm believer that “actual football” traits will keep players on the field, and though first downs don’t show up in the fantasy scoresheet, it’s guaranteed the coaches notice. The argument could be made that Bernard simply served a different purpose than Mixon, but it’s imperative to note that 61 of Bernard’s 105 carries came in games where Mixon either sat out or missed the majority of the contest, meaning he wasn’t pigeonholed into a satellite or long-yardage role.
Pass Catching Chops
Easily the best part of Mixon’s season was how well he caught the ball out of the backfield. We knew he was a well-rounded player, as evidenced by his 65 receptions in two collegiate seasons, but I’m not sure anyone saw him hauling in 88.2% of his targets (30 of 34). Though it’s an admittedly small sample size, only two other PPR top-50 running backs caught a higher percentage of their looks – Samaje Perine (22 of 24, 91.7%) and Dion Lewis (32 of 35, 91.4%). Mixon was much better than Bernard in this respect as well, with the veteran managing only a 71.7% success rate and 6.48 YPT, nearly two full yards below Mixon. While it isn’t as if Bernard will disappear, even a modest increase to 50-60 targets could provide an additional source of PPR scoring for Mixon.
Roster Turnover
The combination of free agency and the NFL Draft seemed to act as a net positive for Mixon. Free agency led to the loss of plodder Jeremy Hill (not that he would have been ticketed for much of a role anyhow), and more importantly the arrival of tackle Cordy Glenn in a trade with the Buffalo Bills. The Bengals again bolstered their line with the selection of first round center Billy Price. The offensive line play, a glaring weakness in 2017, could now function as an average unit, or better, moving forward.
Also included in the draft haul was fourth round ball carrier Mark Walton. The former Hurricane had an excellent sophomore year and was on his way to an even better junior campaign prior to suffering a season-ending injury. He subsequently bombed the NFL Combine, checking in as smaller and slower than his compatriots, while also lacking even average explosion. His best NFL-relevant comparables include Duke Johnson and Theo Riddick, with Devonta Freeman as the “pie in the sky” scenario. It remains most likely that he’ll function as Bernard’s potential replacement in 2019, as cutting the veteran could save the team over $3 million in cap space.
A Comparison Moving Forward?
In trying to come up with a comparison for Mixon, I not only wanted to check the boxes of his physical profile and college production, but I also wanted to select someone who similarly failed to meet rookie year expectations. The best I could come up with was former Bronco and Dolphin Knowshon Moreno. Though Mixon was a bit bigger than his Bulldog counterpart, their 40-yard dash and 20-yard shuttle times were similar, as were their vertical and broad jumps, and bench press scores. Consider the comparison below.
Both also had their teams sink significant draft capital into them, with Moreno as a former first-round pick, and Mixon a second-round pick with an asterisk (his off-field concerns are well documented). Moreno was a bit more of a workhorse in college than was Mixon, averaging 249 carries over two seasons in the tough SEC, but the two were both known for the ability to make defenders miss, while possessing the ability to function as three-down backs.
Moreno’s rookie year was fine from a fantasy perspective, but similar to Mixon it left owners wanting more. Consider the table below.
Moreno was a bit better on the ground and Mixon through the air, but apart from the number of carries, the output is eerily similar. And while Moreno never had the career arc many expected, he got better and was a fantasy viable player in his second season (1,151 total yards in 13 games, with eight touchdowns, 4.3 YPC, and 10.1 YPR across 37 catches), and truly broke out in his fifth season after battling injury in years three and four (1,586 total yards in 16 games, with 13 touchdowns, 4.3 YPC, and 9.1 YPR across 60 catches). He remained efficient in his final season, with Miami, prior to falling to a career-ending injury.
While many might point to Moreno as a disappointment, I view him as an inspiration for Mixon. A poor first year is hardly a death knell for a young player, especially one who has workhorse traits. Moreno’s career was decidedly uneven, but he showed an apex that many might not have believed after his rookie season. No two players are the same, but this goes to show that the young Bengal certainly has a chance to make good moving forward.
Conclusion
As I stated at the outset of this article, I’m not going to argue that Joe Mixon was anything other than mediocre in 2017. With that said, I believe it’s clear he improved over the season, compared favorably to his teammate Gio Bernard in some aspects, and, albeit in a small sample size, looked like one of the best pass-catching running backs in the league. His supporting cast improved during the off-season, and finally, it also wouldn’t be the first time that a much-hyped player bounced back after a miserable rookie year. While his ADP certainly makes me wary, and I likely wouldn’t be a buyer at that price, if I’m already a Mixon owner I’m expecting much better things in 2018.
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