NFL Draft Aftermath: IDP Winners and Losers from the NFC North

Tom Kislingbury Posted On May 24, 2018

With the 2018 NFL Draft in the rear-view mirror, it’s time to start looking ahead to get an idea of what is going to happen in 2018 in terms of IDP leagues. The first step of that is analyzing the overall defensive makeup of every team in the league. Who’s moving up and who’s moving down?

Today I’m looking at the NFC North.

GREEN BAY PACKERS

Winner: Clay Matthews

I honestly expected the Packers to consider an edge rusher with their first-round pick. Corner was obviously a major issue as well, but I was surprised the team didn’t really address the outside linebacker position until they picked James Looney in the seventh round.

Rumors of Clay Matthews’ demise are greatly exaggerated. He led the team at the position last season with 660 snaps and was pretty effective yet again. Nick Perry is a good player and the team clearly has some faith in Kyler Fackrell and/or Vince Biegel (who played 570 snaps combined) but Matthews is still the man in position and will likely be a value this season.

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Loser: Josh Jones

Jones played 735 snaps as a rookie with many of them in the box (although he did play deeper later in the season). So, why is he an NFL Draft loser? The main reason is the Packers selected a player who is a pure LB/S hybrid in Oren Burks in the third round at 88^th overall. Maybe it was just how their board shook out but it’s worth noting that Jones was actually fairly inefficient. He recorded 56 solos and 11 assists at a 9.1% tackle efficiency – 46 other safeties managed a better efficiency than that in 2017.

Coming from Vanderbilt, Burks will likely take some time to acclimate to NFL speed, but it looks to me as if it will be a serious battle at some point rather than Josh Jones just being anointed as the starter at the spot in perpetuity.

CHICAGO BEARS

Winner: Adrian Amos

Quintin Demps was signed a year ago as the starting strong safety but played less than three games before injury ended his season and is no longer with the team. Amos only played ten full games but was highly impressive. He looked good on the field and was efficient (he recorded a tackle on 10% of his snaps). The team was not committed to him, though, so it was excellent news that they did not select a safety at all in the draft. With Eddie Jackson a natural deep player, Amos is in a good spot.

Loser: Danny Trevathan

I like Trevathan but the selection of Roquan Smith in the top ten is very bad news for his IDP value. It’s very rare for linebackers to be taken in the top ten in modern times so the team clearly think the position needs improvement. Trevathan hasn’t managed to play 750 snaps since 2013 (when he played 947) and he has averaged just 61 solo tackles and 27 assists per season across the last three seasons. In short, he has simply not been a very productive player. It seems Smith will walk in and be the top guy from day one on the Bears. Trevathan is still worth owning and could easily have some useful weeks but he’s not an every-week starter any longer.

DETROIT LIONS

Winner: Anthony Zettel

The first defensive linemen the Lions selected was Da’Shawn Hand in round four and he very much profiles as an interior player at the next level. Zettel has competition at the position in Kerry Wynn (assuming he recovers fully from his injury) and Ezekiel Ansah, but I thought he was easily the best edge rusher on the team last season.

Loser: Miles Killebrew

My friend Bill Latin will be furious to see Killebrew on this list. Sorry, Bill. We have to be realistic.

Killebrew has played a total of 501 defensive snaps in his two seasons in the league after entering as a fourth round pick. On those snaps he’s looked extremely average at best. And in my eyes, he still looks lost. He seems visibly hesitant and confused pre-snap. Once the ball is in play then sure – he’s a heat-seeking missile and it’s great fun to watch but you can sure bet that’s not how Matt Patricia is thinking. The selection of Tracy Walker in the third round seems to confirm this. It pains me to say it, but I think Killebrew is fighting for his roster spot right now – and it could easily be a fight he doesn’t win.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Winner: Anthony Barr

It’s easy to forget Barr was a top ten pick back in 2014. Even so with his contract up next season and Eric Kendricks just receiving a big contract, I was halfways expecting the Vikes to bring in some depth at the position with an eye on potentially replacing Barr – that did not happen with only Devante Downs being chosen at linebacker. He was a seventh-round pick and so we’ll see another season of the same starters barring injury. Barring. Geddit? Zing!

Losers: Brian Robison

Robison is heading into his age-35 season. He played 563 snaps last season as relief for Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen, but it seems far-fetched to expect him to do the same again. The Vikings selected not one but two ends in Jayln Holmes (Ohio State) and Ade Aruna (Tulane). Holmes was selected in the fourth round and Aruna followed in the seventh. That’s not huge draft capital but it’s worth remembering Danielle Hunter was only a third round selection, too. Mike Zimmer is one of the finest defensive coaches in the NFL so anyone that makes it into his tutelage has a decent chance of developing. With Stephen Weatherly and Tashawn Bowser both on the roster, Robison has his work cut out for him.

Hopefully that gives you an idea of the biggest movers and shakers in this division.

Thanks for reading.

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Tom Kislingbury

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Being from England Tom only discovered American Football in the late 90s. From there he's gone from casual defender to devoted obsessive and likes to delve into deep data primarily about defensive players. He spends his days trying to pretend the spreadsheets and graphs he makes about football are actually work for his day job. No-one is fooled.

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