Dynasty Myths: Young Quarterbacks and their Tight Ends, Part Two

Matt Price

There are some old sayings, proverbs, rules, tropes, and “what have you’s” that permeate within both the football and fantasy football industries. Here are just a few:

  • “You can’t win a league in the first round of your draft, but you can certainly lose it.”
  • “Running backs with over 370 carries don’t perform well the following season.”
  • “Wide Receivers break out in year three.”
  • “Rookie tight ends never produce in year one.”

Some of the things we read may be completely true but others could be things we have heard or read so many times we just take them as factual without really knowing the truth behind the statement. I’m certainly guilty of saying and believing some of these things myself, so I wanted to take a look at one of these blanket statements. One I’ve long wondered about is the old adage, “Young quarterbacks love targeting their tight ends.” Another version you hear is, “Tight ends are a young quarterback’s best friend.” Even still, “Tight ends are safety valves for young quarterbacks.”

Say it however you want to, but are any of those statements true? Do young quarterbacks really have a propensity for throwing to their tight end more than veteran quarterbacks? I wanted to find out.

The Method

For the purpose of this study, I am arbitrarily calling a quarterback “young” during their first three seasons in the NFL. This is regardless of age, number of years as a starter, or stage of development. I only looked at quarterbacks who had played in less than four NFL seasons over the last five NFL seasons (2013-2017). The only other criteria for a young quarterback season to be included is a minimum of 100 pass attempts.

The Data 

Once filtered through the above criteria, I ended up with 60 qualifying quarterback seasons from 2013-2017 for quarterbacks in their first, second, or third season. Using Pro Football Reference, I pulled passing target data for each of those 60 seasons, only counting those that went to a wide receiver, tight end and running back – this gave me the target distribution for each quarterback during a particular season. For each NFL season, I pulled total target numbers per position from Fantasy Pros and was able to calculate the average target share at each position across the entire league. Lastly, I compared the tight end target percentage for each of the 60 quarterback seasons that qualified for the article to the league average tight end target percentage.

The Results

To make it easier to digest, I’ve broken down the data sets by years. At the end, we will look at the total numbers. Make sure you check out part one of the study I posted yesterday before moving on to 2016 and 2017 here today.

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2016

In 2016, there were 17,984 passing targets, of which 3,750 went to tight ends for a league average target percentage of 20.85%. That’s down 0.62% from 2015.

2016

In total, ten quarterbacks made the cut in 2016, of which four targeted their tight ends more than the league average to the position. Carson Wentz was just shy of 10% above league average and was the only one to break 5%. Wentz targeted his tight ends 187 times with 106 of those going to Zach Ertz for 78 receptions, 816 yards and four touchdowns. Despite the success Marcus Mariota had throwing to Delanie Walker in 2015, his percent over league average dropped more than 11% from year one to year two.  Six young quarterbacks finished below the league average for tight end target share in 2016.

2017

In 2017, there were 17,158 passing targets, of which 3,583 went to tight ends for a league average target percentage of 20.88%. That’s up 0.3% from 2016.

2017

A total of 13 quarterbacks made the cut in 2017, four hit 5% over league average, and one nearly hit 10%. Mariota didn’t hit the 15.24% mark that he did in his rookie season but did rise up 5.33% over his second season. Wentz fell 1.32% but was still well above the league average. Jacoby Brissett led the way amongst this group – he threw 105 of his 140 tight end targets to Jack Doyle who caught 78 of them for 649 yards and four touchdowns.  Nine young quarterbacks finished below the league average for tight end target share in 2017.

Conclusion

So, what does it all mean? Do quarterbacks in their first three seasons rely on their tight ends more than veteran signal callers?

Let’s look at the facts:

  • 60 quarterback seasons over the last five NFL seasons from 2013-2017 were played by quarterbacks in their rookie, second, or third years in the league.
  • 29 (48.33%) of those seasons finished above the league average in tight end target percentage.
  • Seven of those seasons (11.67%) finished 5% or higher above the league season average.
  • Four of those seasons (6.67%) finished 10% (including a 9.95% season and a 9.96%) or higher above the league season average.
  • Two of those seasons (3.33%) finished 15% or higher above the league season average.
  • In the last five NFL seasons, only two quarterbacks (Mariota and Wentz), have thrown for 5% or more than the league average to the tight end position in more than one of their qualifying seasons.

The answer to the above question based on the data seems to be “sometimes,” or about 50% of the time, but depending on what you consider to be significant enough to specifically target those tight ends, it’s closer to “no.” If you consider 5% above league average enough to be worth it, you only had an 11.67% chance to be right about the decision and half to a third of that if your threshold is higher.

Let’s look a bit deeper at the seven who at a minimum hit the 5% over league average benchmark.

2013

Colin Kaepernick was throwing to Vernon Davis, perhaps the most athletic tight end in the history of the NFL. Other than Anquan Boldin, Davis was the only legitimate threat in the passing game for San Francisco that season.

2014

No qualifier

2015

As previously discussed, both Mariota and Mettenberger threw for more than 15% over league average, producing Delanie Walker’s career-best season. The duo targeted him 133 times. The next highest passing targets for the Titans that year were Harry Douglas with 72 and Dorial Green-Beckham with 67. It’s pretty safe to say Walker was far and away the best pass catcher Tennessee had to offer in 2015.

2016

Carson Wentz was throwing to Zach Ertz, who is now widely regarded as a top 3-5 tight end in the league. He was second in targets from Wentz with 106, behind only Jordan Matthews who was targeted 116 times. It’s arguable that Ertz was the best receiving option for the Eagles in 2016 and if he hadn’t missed two games would have likely received more targets than Matthews.

2017

Mariota makes the list for the second time in his first three seasons, again throwing to Melanie Walker, who was clearly an integral part of the Titans offense during Mariota’s developmental years. Wentz also repeats throwing to Ertz again. His target share decreased slightly, largely due to the emergence of Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor.

Jacoby Brissett rounds out the last of the seven to hit 5% above league average, nearly hitting 10%. Again we see a tight end as a focal point of the offense. Other than TY Hilton, Doyle was really the only weapon Brissett had to work with.

Final Thoughts

If you still think you have the ability to pick which young quarterback will heavily rely on his tight end as a safety valve, security blanket, or whatever else you want to call the position, you’ll have a better chance looking at one where there aren’t many other proven weapons to throw to.

With that in mind, who might qualify in 2018?

Let’s start with two of the newly drafted rookie quarterbacks who used their tight ends in college. At this point, it’s unknown how much they will play in 2018, but we may as well start with the youngest of the bunch and work our way through to the older guys.

Baker Mayfield’s NFL tight end seems like an obvious choice. At Oklahoma, he turned his tight end Mark Andrews into a collegiate star. In 2017, Andrews led the Sooners in receptions with 62, was second on the team in yards with 958 and led the team in receiving touchdowns with eight – this could mean very good things for Browns tight end David Njoku, who you could very well acquire for a late first round pick during your rookie draft.

It may take awhile for Lamar Jackson to start over incumbent Joe Flacco, but his NFL tight ends could also be worth a look once he eventually takes over at quarterback. In 2016, Jackson connected with Cole Hikutini for 50 receptions, 668 yards and eight touchdowns. Baltimore drafted two of the top tight end prospects in the 2018 class. First-rounder Hayden Hurst and the aforementioned third-rounder Mark Andrews both bear consideration in rookie drafts this Spring and Summer.

Of the third year quarterbacks, only Wentz seems like a lock to get there again. Unfortunately, Ertz is already one of the most expensive tight ends so unless you want to pay up for him then it’s hard to consider him a buy target.

Both Andrew Luck and Jacoby Brissett have heavily used their tight end. The problem with picking the Colts tight end in 2018 is that there are now two of them. Indianapolis signed Eric Ebron late in free agency, making it difficult to trust Jack Doyle as a low-end TE1 in 2018

If I’m looking for the next tight end that could benefit from having a young quarterback, I’m looking at second-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky’s new toy, Trey Burton. Other than the also newly signed Allen Robinson and the rookie Anthony Miller, Burton is likely the best receiving weapon Chicago has. His price has risen to TE11 but there is still upside at that price and I would gladly pay an early-mid second for him on a tight end needy team. Trubisky targeted tight ends 5% less than the league average but that was likely due to a slew of injuries and a rookie who was playing Division II football in 2016.

Patrick Mahomes seems like a quarterback who might throw to the tight end more than the league average but there are two issues. One, Travis Kelce is the dynasty TE1, so he is obviously very expensive. Second, the Chiefs added Sammy Watkins and also have Tyreek Hill, making it difficult to project him throwing to the tight end significantly more than the rest of the league.

If you are really value hunting, Stephen Anderson in Houston is intriguing as the best of what’s left in the wake of C.J. Fiedorowicz retirement after a concussion-riddled 2017 season. Anderson is an athletic WR/TE tweener who can leap out of the building, excels at making plays in the air, and could emerge as Deshaun Watson’s third option in the passing game behind DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. Rookie wide receiver Keke Coutee could put a damper on this but if Anderson hits as Houston’s starter, I could see him leading the team in red zone receiving touchdowns in his third season. Anderson is likely on the waiver wire in most leagues. Just keep in mind Ryan Griffin is also in the mix and while Jordan Akins is intriguing, the Texans will likely give him time to develop.

My advice after doing this study is to not specifically target tight ends being thrown to by young quarterbacks, but if you are going to do so, make sure that tight end is David Njoku, Trey Burton, or even Stephen Anderson depending on what price you’d like to pay and what you want out of the position.

Thanks again to Pro Football Reference and Fantasy Pros for the data.

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matt price