This year, most rookie mock drafts are mostly all the same. One team selects Saquon Barkley, then everyone else picks who they think will be the best player within a large group of ten or eleven players. Sure, the order may change slightly from draft to draft, but the overall theme of everyone taking the “best player available” is a constant throughout any draft and this year is certainly no exception as we seemingly have one true dynasty pillar at the top and a large group of players in similar tiers right below him.
What exactly does best player available mean, though? Is it the player with the highest ceiling? Maybe it’s the player with the highest floor? Perhaps it’s a combination of the two? Barkley, for example, is thought by the masses to have both the highest ceiling AND highest floor of this entire draft – I don’t disagree one bit. So instead, I took to the DLF Voxer chat and proposed the following unique mock draft: A Rookie BUST Mock Draft.
The idea behind this is simple – select the player who, at their current rookie ADP, is in your opinion most likely to bust. The idea of selecting the player at their given their ADP is crucial. Yes, Auden Tate may be likely to bust, but no one would really care because of his fourth-round rookie ADP. I asked the group to consider this a Superflex valuation so we could possibly get a quarterback or two in here as well. The results are shared below, along with the comments made when the picks occurred – I’ll add my own thoughts on the picks as well.
1.01 = Rashaad Penny, RB SEA
Reason: “I don’t believe Seattle will feed Penny like people think, plus he’s horrible in pass protection.”
My thoughts: I was honestly a little surprised to see Penny go at the 1.01, but thinking about it more, this pick makes some sense. There are legitimate questions about his competition level in college as he’s coming into the NFL from a small school and really only had one year of elite college production. He’s also going to a team that hasn’t run the ball well since Marshawn Lynch departed and has a whole host of other red flags, including their poor offensive line and a recent history of getting their running backs injured. Penny has a lot of upside as a potential three-down back in this class, but going occasionally at the 1.02 in rookie drafts, he’s high up in this rookie bust mock draft based on the risk that comes with that high price tag.
1.02 = Sony Michel, RB NE