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Voxer Rookie Bust Mock Draft

We perform a very unique mock draft based on risk.

Josh Allen is a risky bet with a rookie selection

This year, most rookie mock drafts are mostly all the same. One team selects Saquon Barkley, then everyone else picks who they think will be the best player within a large group of ten or eleven players. Sure, the order may change slightly from draft to draft, but the overall theme of everyone taking the “best player available” is a constant throughout any draft and this year is certainly no exception as we seemingly have one true dynasty pillar at the top and a large group of players in similar tiers right below him.

What exactly does best player available mean, though? Is it the player with the highest ceiling? Maybe it’s the player with the highest floor? Perhaps it’s a combination of the two? Barkley, for example, is thought by the masses to have both the highest ceiling AND highest floor of this entire draft – I don’t disagree one bit. So instead, I took to the DLF Voxer chat and proposed the following unique mock draft: A Rookie BUST Mock Draft.

The idea behind this is simple – select the player who, at their current rookie ADP, is in your opinion most likely to bust. The idea of selecting the player at their given their ADP is crucial. Yes, Auden Tate may be likely to bust, but no one would really care because of his fourth-round rookie ADP. I asked the group to consider this a Superflex valuation so we could possibly get a quarterback or two in here as well. The results are shared below, along with the comments made when the picks occurred – I’ll add my own thoughts on the picks as well.

1.01 = Rashaad Penny,  RB SEA

Reason: “I don’t believe Seattle will feed Penny like people think, plus he’s horrible in pass protection.”

My thoughts: I was honestly a little surprised to see Penny go at the 1.01, but thinking about it more, this pick makes some sense.  There are legitimate questions about his competition level in college as he’s coming into the NFL from a small school and really only had one year of elite college production. He’s also going to a team that hasn’t run the ball well since Marshawn Lynch departed and has a whole host of other red flags, including their poor offensive line and a recent history of getting their running backs injured. Penny has a lot of upside as a potential three-down back in this class, but going occasionally at the 1.02 in rookie drafts, he’s high up in this rookie bust mock draft based on the risk that comes with that high price tag.

1.02 = Sony Michel, RB NE

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Michael Zingone

Michael is the rare Chargers fan who grew up in New Jersey but currently lives in Boston. While most college students spend their Sundays catching up on homework from a weekend of fun, you can find Michael on the corner seat of the couch watching Redzone all day. He puts his coursework in Math, Finance, and Econ to good use with his excel sheets full of NFL statistics and analysis, but unfortunately doesn't get any extra credit for them. He's only a closet Pats fan for the 87 cent Dunkin' Iced Coffees every Monday.

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Voxer Rookie Bust Mock Draft
13 Comments

13 Comments

  1. Todd Walters

    May 20, 2018 at 5:59 am

    So you think every RB not name Barkley or Johnson is a bust candidate, I do not agree. Guice and Jones will both be productive

    • Ken Kelly

      May 20, 2018 at 10:03 am

      Hey Todd! I’d hesitate in saying “every running back not named Barkley or Johnson is a bust candidate.” The idea behind this was basically trying to illustrate the risk associated with each pick in relation to their ADP. While many of this year’s running backs carry risk for different reasons, each of them also has great promise. This post is really about us doing our due diligence in making sure we clearly define the pros and cons for all the rookies so each follower of DLF can make the best rookie pick possible. I wouldn’t read too much into this and assume we don’t like those rookies. In fact, we love many of them.

  2. Tony Wehrs

    May 20, 2018 at 6:33 am

    If you had the 1.2 right now in your dynasty league, who would you take? I’m between Jones and Guice. I need an RB badly. Thanks!

    • Paul Julian

      May 20, 2018 at 7:00 am

      @Tony Wehrs take Guice.

    • Gregory Massa

      May 20, 2018 at 7:07 am

      They both should have immediate “lead back” status going into the year. Personally, I agree with the assesment of RoJo more than I do of Guice: RoJo has the skills, but maybe not the build. Guice is a potential 3-down back, but may be a little bit of a headcase (the good one’s always are, right?).

    • Ken Kelly

      May 20, 2018 at 10:05 am

      Collectively, we at DLF believe Guice is the clear 1.02.

  3. Gregory Massa

    May 20, 2018 at 7:10 am

    Glad to see my first two potential picks are not on this list! Haha

  4. Jacob Smith

    May 20, 2018 at 10:43 am

    “Reason: The Cleveland Browns” can be used all-encompassingly. Not buying the revamped-and-this-year-it-will-be-different-no-really mantra for a second. Godspeed, Baker Mayfield.

  5. Dennis Salisbury

    May 20, 2018 at 11:06 am

    And I thought Kerryon Johnson should have been on this list…opinions opinions!

  6. Paul Reuben

    May 20, 2018 at 1:13 pm

    Just saw your new article on Sam Darnold. How did HE escape this list??

    • Ken Kelly

      May 21, 2018 at 8:18 am

      Darnold is an interesting case for sure. He escaped the list basically because he’s going behind Mayfield, Jackson and Rosen in most drafts and the capital needed to get him isn’t nearly as great. It’s not uncommon to see him going in round three and that certainly mitigates the risk involved in acquiring him. Could he still bomb in the league? Sure. However, the price you’ll pay and penalty you’ll incur as a result likely won’t put your team back in the building process too much.

  7. Stephen Paratore

    May 21, 2018 at 6:54 pm

    LOVE looking at a bust perspective to see where people think there is higher risk versus their ADP. I think could even go two rounds next year by take top 36 by DLF consensus then come out with a top 24 Bust Concensus by the same group of voters. Good stuff…

  8. Brad Forrest

    August 10, 2018 at 9:08 am

    Now that we are into August, how has this Bust List changed for you if it has at all? Thank you, great list!

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