Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Baker Mayfield, QB CLE

Editor’s Note: To help you dominate your rookie drafts, this series will feature a look at the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of over 40 dynasty rookie draft prospects and run all through the month of May and even into June. We’ll cover all the premier prospects but also give you critical information on some of the lesser known talents. All of these rookie updates will be loaded into our ever-evolving 2018 Rookie Draft Guide – the ultimate resource for dynasty enthusiasts all over the world.

Name: Baker Mayfield

Position: Quarterback

Pro Team: Cleveland Browns

College: Oklahoma

Draft Pick: Round one, first overall

Video Highlights

Combine Review

• Height: 6’1”
• Weight: 215 pounds
• Hand Size: 9 1/4”
• Arm Length: 30 1/4”
• Bench Press: N/A
• 40 Yard Dash: 4.84
• 20 Yard Shuttle: 4.28
• 60 Yard Shuttle: N/A
• 3 Cone: 7.00
• Broad Jump: 111” (9 feet 3 inches)
• Vertical Jump: 29 inches

College Production

• 2017: 14 games, 4,627 yards, 70.5% completion percentage, 43 TD, 6 INT
• 2016: 13 games, 3,965 yards, 70.9% completion percentage, 40 TD, 8 INT
• 2015: 13 games, 3,700 yards, 68.1% completion percentage, 36 TD, 7 INT
• 2013 (Texas Tech): 8 games, 2,315 yards, 64.1% completion percentage, 12 TD, 9 INT
  • 3 Star Recruit (number 1029 overall, number 42 pro style quarterback) out of Lake Travis High School in Texas

Strengths

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Mayfield is one of the best statistical quarterbacks in college football history. The reigning Heisman trophy winner holds the record for highest passer rating and yards per attempt in a single season, while also holding second and third place in those same categories. As illustrated by his completion percentage, Mayfield is the most accurate quarterback in the draft. Here’s a chart from Pro Football Focus illustrating how accurate he was over the middle of the field, and at all depths:

Mayfield isn’t just accurate. He’s one of just four quarterbacks to ever have a ball velocity measured over 60 miles per hour at the NFL Combine, showing that he possesses elite arm talent. He’s also no slouch on the ground, rushing for 311 yards this season and having 21 rushing touchdowns. This will provide him with added fantasy value at the next level. Lastly, the combination of his arm strength, accuracy, and mobility make him lethal on play action and roll out plays. He’s the most accurate quarterback to come out in a long time, and he’s my top quarterback in this year’s class by a wide margin.

Weaknesses

The main concern is Mayfield’s height. While I don’t see this as a major worry, many scouts and coaches want their quarterback to be above 6’3”. If Mayfield was two inches taller I would think he’d be the consensus top quarterback in the class, no questions asked.

On-field concerns I have about Mayfield are his footwork and throwing motion. Mayfield tends to throw off his back foot too often and he has a little bit of erratic footwork. His release point is also a little low, which causes him to loft his deep balls more than he should sometimes. He’ll need to clean these up if he wants to become an elite quarterback at the next level.

Mayfield’s personality is also an issue for many. There are three incidents in particular: his off-season resisting arrest charge, planting an Oklahoma flag at midfield after defeating Ohio State, and grabbing his crotch against Kansas. I don’t have any problem with the last two – if anything I think they show his competitive nature. However, the arrest is concerning. It’s not enough to dissuade me from drafting him, but it is something to consider.

Lastly, Mayfield is already 23, so he’s quite old. I’d prefer for him to be younger coming into the league, but the age concern may be a bit overblown at the quarterback position. In 2015, Jonathan Bales of Fantasy Labs wrote an article discussing quarterback age and came away with the following conclusion: “The typical 24-year old rookie passer can be expected to score 46 more fantasy points than a 21-year old.” In the short term, this may actually help Mayfield.

Opportunity

Mayfield comes into an awkward situation in Cleveland. They just traded a third-round pick for Tyrod Taylor, and Hue Jackson has already declared that he’ll start the year. Taylor is a solid quarterback, and I really think he could be very beneficial to the team. However, he was benched for Nathan Peterman last year and I think Mayfield could take the Browns to the next level.

The over-under for number of games that Mayfield starts is currently set at 9.5, and while I would likely take the under on this, I’d expect him to be starting late in the season and start at least five or so. When he does start he’ll be thrown into one of the most promising situations in football.

The running back group is strong, as second-round pick Nick Chubb could be one of the best backs in this class, Carlos Hyde has been productive in San Francisco, and Duke Johnson is one of the top receiving backs in the league. Not to be outdone is the receiving core, led by Josh Gordon. When he’s on the field, he’s one of the top receivers in the league. Jarvis Landry is one of the best slot receivers in the league, and former first-round pick Corey Coleman will look to break out in year three. Antonio Callaway was a fourth-round pick who fell due to off-field issues, and likely could have gone in the first two rounds.

Lastly, tight end David Njoku is an uber-athletic former first round pick who was one of the top receiving options in Cleveland as a rookie. It’s a great landing spot for Mayfield to come into.

Threats

As I mentioned above, in the short term Tyrod Taylor is a roadblock, but he shouldn’t have any other threats in the long term like someone like Lamar Jackson might. The interior offensive line is solid, but the tackle situation is a little worrisome.

However, the biggest threat to Mayfield is Hue Jackson and the Browns coaching staff. Over the course of two years, Jackson is 1-31, and has so little trust within the organization that according to reports, GM John Dorsey didn’t tell him the pick until two days before the draft. Jackson hasn’t shown signs that he’s capable of leading an organization during his stints with the Raiders or now with the Browns. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams isn’t doing wonders with the defense either. Hopefully a potential change in coaching staff doesn’t stunt Mayfield’s development, but actually helps him.

Short-Term Expectations

In the short term, Tyrod Taylor will open the year as the Browns starting quarterback. Mayfield will likely start at some point this year, but not to open it. You can likely leave him on the waiver wire in redraft leagues until he becomes the starter later in the year.

Long-Term Expectations

In the long term, I expect Mayfield to regularly finish as a QB1. He has all the traits of a prototypical modern quarterback, a young talented group of weapons, and the attitude to match his talent. His accuracy and arm strength will allow him to slice up most NFL defenses, and pairing that with a little bit of rushing ability will allow him to rack up even more fantasy points.

Pro Comparison

I’d compare Mayfield to a less polished Drew Brees with added rushing upside. Both quarterbacks are on the smaller side, have tremendous accuracy, and arm strength to hit big plays. They both are commanding presences in the locker room that their team looks up to, albeit in very different ways. I think it’s a lot to ask of anyone to have the kind of career that Brees has, but the two have a very similar play style.

Projected Rookie Draft Range

Mayfield is currently coming off the board as the QB1 at pick 19. This feels like the right range for Mayfield, as quarterbacks don’t typically go very high in rookie drafts. I’d considered Mayfield at the earliest in the middle of round two if I needed a quarterback. He’s my QB1 and this is typically where I start to think about quarterbacks in rookie drafts.

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