Love the Drake
Last year around this time I opined on Twitter dot com that Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill had arguably the best off-season out of any player in the NFL, thereby enhancing his value for his fantasy owners as well. A brief snippet of my rationale is shown below:
But most importantly, he’s had arguably the best off-season out of just about any player in the NFL (non Tom Brady class).
— Eric Hardter (@EDH_27) June 4, 2017
1. Coach says “we need to get him on the field more”
2. No competition is drafted for him
3. The best WR on the team was released— Eric Hardter (@EDH_27) June 4, 2017
This is the type of 23-yr old people used to fawn over, given the perfect dynasty storm that’s potentially brewing.
— Eric Hardter (@EDH_27) June 4, 2017
While Hill is his own man, and a similar scenario won’t unlock fantasy greatness for every player experiencing such highs, we in the dynasty universe can use these types of arguments to supplement the opinions we already held. Given that NFL coaches and general managers have an entire free agency period plus seven picks (on average) in the draft to enhance their rosters, it’s notable when they refuse to address a certain position. Much like with Hill in 2017, I think we can apply this logic to Dolphins ball carrier Kenyan Drake this year.
First, consider my synopsis on the Miami running back from the Dolphins Dynasty Capsule back in February:
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“Drake represents the ultimate dynasty conundrum. What do you do with a player who seemingly came out of nowhere to light the world on fire for a short stretch of time? Should you get out while you can, or buy into the possibility that you’ve unearthed the next fantasy stud?
When it comes to Drake, I think he’s worth buying into. Upon receiving the keys to the kingdom, he never received fewer than 13 touches in a game, and had more than 20 in three of five contests. His YPC never dipped below 4.4 YPC in any of those games, and he had three or more receptions four of five times. He had at least one 30-plus yard run in four of five games. Long story short, he did everything that was asked of him, and more.
Perhaps the key here is that Drake comes with some draft capital behind him. He was the 73rd pick in 2016 by the same regime who’s currently in charge. This is the same regime who traded starter Jay Ajayi in order to pave the way for Drake’s ascension. The Dolphins might add another player in 2018, but I firmly believe it’ll be someone to share the load more than anything. Drake is currently the RB20 with an ADP of 61.5, and I believe that represents an opportunity to buy.”
The last paragraph, in particular, presents some of the same arguments I made for Hill a year ago. The Dolphins release of Ajayi is stretching it a tiny bit, as it happened during the middle of the 2017 season. However, the fact remains that the decision makers were more than comfortable with what they had in Drake and Damien Williams, who is also now no longer a member of the team.
Miami paid lip service to the concept of adding competition, manifested in the form of soon-to-be 35-year old Frank Gore, as well as through the draft at the end of the fourth round (pick number 131) with Kalen Ballage. Jarvis Landry, he of the “extension of the run game” fame (that’s not an insult, as I’m a huge fan of the guy, but facts are facts), was traded to Cleveland, taking a whopping 161 targets with him. To me, this represents a best-case scenario.
Gore has a great chance to be a future Hall of Famer, but without seeming snarky, I think it’s laughable to assume he was brought in to be anything more than a backup. Albeit behind some bad offensive lines in Indy, Gore failed to average even 4.0 YPC in any of his three seasons as a Colt, getting by on volume alone. He still has some ability in the receiving game (101 receptions over that time) and remains an above-average blocker, but it would appear to be folly to believe he’s going to take over the backfield.
Head coach Adam Gase offered up his own context as well, stating the following:
“I think he’s a great guy for us to have in that locker room and that running back room. I think he’s a great guy for Drake to see work day in and day out.”
A pessimistic view could assert this is a slight on Drake and his maturity and/or work ethic, but I view it more as an acknowledgment that Drake is the alpha dog, and Gore is meant to be more of a locker room presence than anything. Gore will fulfill his role, which is more related to team chemistry than an on-field presence.
With Ballage, the phrase “looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane” has been bandied about. Despite his size and speed, he could never accrue a lion’s share of Arizona State’s running back carries, and his career 4.4 YPC in college is less than mediocre. He was solid in the passing game with 76 receptions over his last three seasons, but that seems a redundant skill to both Drake and Gore.
It may seem disingenuous to dismiss Ballage due to his lack of collegiate volume, given that Drake himself never totaled more than 100 carries in any given season at Alabama, but the major differences are twofold. Firstly, Drake had to contend with a trio of NFL second round draft picks in Eddie Lacy, T.J. Yeldon, and Derrick Henry during his time with the Crimson Tide, which would be enough to keep 99% of collegiate backs off the field. Secondly, Drake averaged a robust 6.4 YPC and 12.4 YPR (across 46 receptions), easily dwarfing Ballage’s output. He was certainly far from a bell-cow, but unlike Ballage he made the most of his opportunities.
Though Gase has promised to “spread the thing out” with regard to his ball carriers, it remains easy to see Drake receiving 200+ touches, including 40-50 receptions. Based on 2017 data, nine of the top 24 PPR ball carriers received fewer than 200 carries, so the path to fantasy stardom isn’t exactly narrow even if he’s not functioning as Le’Veon Bell. Additionally, he possesses reasonable size at 6’1”, 210 pounds, has above-average speed and explosion, and is only 24 years old. Over an (admittedly small) sample size during the tail end of the 2017 season, Drake proved the ability to carry the load and function as the lead back on a bad team, and I think he’s poised to do so again.
So whether you love The Drake or hate The Drake, he remains an interesting “buy” candidate with an ADP of 70.2, as the RB27, which has somehow dropped since my remarks in February. And if I haven’t convinced you of that yet, consider the following notes from running back guru Graham Barfield, and start making offers!
Kenyan Drake During Weeks 13-17:
– 86% Snap Rate
– 91 carries (6th-most)
– 444 rush yards (1st)
– 4.1 yards after contact (1st)
– 17 receptions (13th)
– 150 receiving yards (14th)
– 88.4 PPR Points (8th)— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) March 22, 2018
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