Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Calvin Ridley, WR ATL

Kyle Holden

Editor’s Note: To help you dominate your rookie drafts, this series will feature a look at the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of over 40 dynasty rookie draft prospects and run all through the month of May and even into June. We’ll cover all the premier prospects but also give you critical information on some of the lesser known talents. All of these rookie updates will be loaded into our ever-evolving 2018 Rookie Draft Guide – the ultimate resource for dynasty enthusiasts all over the world.

Name: Calvin Ridley

Position: Wide Receiver

Pro Team: Atlanta Falcons

College Team: Alabama Crimson Tide

Draft Status: Round one, 26th overall

Video Highlights

Combine Review

  • Height: 6’1’’
  • Weight: 189 pounds
  • Hands: 9 1/8’’
  • Arm Length: 31 5/8’’
  • 40-Yard Dash: 4.43 seconds
  • Vertical: 31.0’’
  • Broad: 110.0’’
  • Bench Press: 15 reps
  • 3-Cone Drill: 6.88 seconds
  • 20-Yard Shuttle: 4.41 seconds

Strengths

When you watch tape on Calvin Ridley, it does not take long to figure out what his greatest strength is. He possesses elite route-running that helps him create separation at all levels of the field. He is quick in an out of his breaks and is nearly impossible to cover if given a free release off the line of scrimmage. This should serve him well in the NFL and allow him to contribute for the Atlanta Falcons and fantasy teams right away.

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Ridley also has great speed, registering a 4.43 second 40-yard dash time at the NFL Combine. This was actually slower than many analysts projected him to run, but it is still a great time nonetheless. His speed really shows up on deep routes as he blows by defenders with ease. His combination of speed and route-running make him a difficult receiver to cover.

Weaknesses

Ridley’s main weakness is his size. He measured at 6’1’’ and just 189 pounds at the NFL Combine. His small frame will likely make it difficult for him to beat press coverages and physical NFL cornerbacks. It also makes it difficult for him to win contested-catch situations.

In addition to his small frame, Ridley lacks elite athleticism. His Combine measurements were mostly underwhelming, with the exception of his 40-yard dash and 3-cone drill times. While elite athleticism is not necessarily a requirement of being a successful NFL wide receiver, I do envision it limiting his upside.

Opportunities

Ridley landed in a great spot with the Atlanta Falcons. Not only does he get the chance to learn from fellow Alabama alumni Julio Jones, but Jones figures to take a ton of pressure off Ridley with the double and triple teams the former so often commands. Ridley might have struggled if he went to a team like the Cowboys where he might have been expected to be the team’s main receiver playing against top cornerbacks. In Atlanta, Ridley can line up opposite Julio Jones and occasionally in the slot where coverages will be softer than the ones Jones will face.

With all due respect to Mohamed Sanu, Atlanta needed another receiver opposite Julio who can threaten defenses like Ridley can. The rookie adds a new dimension to the Atlanta offense and makes them as explosive as any other team. Ridley should immediately start alongside Jones and Sanu and possibly become quarterback Matt Ryan’s second-favorite target as early as this year. I can see Atlanta working Ridley into their offense similarly to how they did with Julio alongside Roddy White.

Atlanta actually only ran “11 personnel” (one running back, one tight end, and three wide receiver sets) 50% of the time last season, eighth-lowest in the league. I expect that number to rise next year with the infusion of Ridley into the offense. He is much more talented than Taylor Gabriel and gives Atlanta three solid receiving options between Ridley, Jones, and Sanu.

Threats

Ridley has a pretty solid role waiting for him next season. He figures to be one of the more productive rookie wide receivers, but it will still likely take some time for him to get acclimated to the Atlanta offense and the speed of the NFL. Wide receivers have historically started their careers off slowly, but Ridley will look to buck this trend with his skill set that should translate well to the NFL.

Ridley is much older than some of his peers in this draft class. He will turn 24 years old later this year, making it imperative he is productive early in his career if fantasy owners want to enjoy many productive seasons out of him. He does not have as long of a “developmental window” as receivers who enter the NFL at 21 or 22 years old.

Julio Jones will see a ton of targets barring injury, but Ridley’s game is not reminiscent of a target hog anyways. He can still excel with 80-90 quality targets where he is able to get in space to use his elite separation skills to his advantage.

Atlanta’s offense is filled with talented skill position players, including Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, and Austin Hooper to go along with the aforementioned Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu. As a result, there might be games where Ridley does not see many targets. However, the potential for Atlanta’s offense to be one of the more explosive ones in the NFL could very well offset that threat.

Short-Term Expectations

I expect Ridley to be fairly productive right away, assuming he learns the playbook and earns the trust of Matt Ryan during camp. I envision him having a rookie season similar to the one Cooper Kupp had for the Los Angeles Rams last season. He might not necessarily be a prolific touchdown scorer, but he has the potential to be a solid ‘WR3’ in PPR leagues.

He should start right away alongside Jones and Sanu and carve out a solid role in the Atlanta offense. I do not see Hooper taking too many targets away from the receivers, but the running backs should see their fair share of targets in the passing game. It will be interesting to see if the Falcons become a little more pass-heavy in 2018 with the addition of Ridley. They were in the bottom-third of pass rate percentage last season, passing on 56% of their plays. I see them throwing the ball a little more next season, which would add a few more targets to go around.

Long-Term Expectations

Ridley probably does not have the highest long-term upside in the 2018 class, but he does not need to. He will be a part of a solid offense consisting of veterans who are not approaching the end of their careers. Julio Jones will likely be there for at least a few more years to draw the top cornerbacks as well as an extra defender or two away from Ridley’s coverage. Matt Ryan has just signed a massive new contract that will solidify Atlanta’s passing game. Tevin Coleman will be a free agent next off-season, but Devonta Freeman will likely be in Atlanta for two to five more seasons.

This stability gives Ridley a solid multi-year window to thrive. It is difficult to project past a three-year window in dynasty anyways, so Ridley’s situation appears secure as long as he can carve out a solid role in the offense.

Rookie Draft Advice

Before the NFL draft, I was lukewarm on Ridley. I acknowledged his talent as a route-runner but still had concerns about his size and upside. The landing spot raised him a bit on my board, into the 1.08-1.10 range.

According to DLF’s April Rookie ADP, Ridley sits in the 1.09 slot. With a plethora of solid running backs available in the first round, I do not advise reaching for Ridley unless he is absolutely your guy. However, I would feel very comfortable taking him at 1.09 in any of my rookie drafts. He probably does not have the highest upside out of the receivers in this class, but I view him as one of the safest options at the position. Late first-round rookie picks are very hit or miss as it is, so I would gladly take a wide receiver who I feel confident can be productive starting in his rookie season.

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kyle holden
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