Post-Draft IDP Rookie Safety Rankings
Today I’m covering my favorite position in football: safety.
Safety is a hugely fun position because of the variety. There are many different types of skills and players that can be valuable depending on scheme and even individual plays. Figuring out what safeties are doing is, in many ways, key to the modern game. So, let’s see who the players to own this year are:
1. Derwin James, S LAC
I’ve got some confusion about how the Chargers squeeze Derwin James into the same team as Jahleel Addae but that doesn’t stop me getting uncomfortably excited about James. He’s a big, strong, fast safety who can hit, rush the passer and also is good enough to not be a one-trick pony. He’s all set to be one of my favorite players in the NFL. I think he might have a slightly slow rookie season (due to the lack of a true free safety on the Chargers’ roster) but he’s going to be really good for a long time.
Notable stat: 38 pressures on 111 career college pass rush attempts.
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2. Terrell Edmunds, S PIT
I loved Edmunds in the pre-draft process so hearing his name in the first round (whilst still being a shock) was great. I think the Steelers know they couldn’t really replace Ryan Shazier with any of the LBs in the draft so they’ve gone after the player whose skill set most resembles Shazier’s. He just happens to be a safety.
The Steelers have toyed with big nickel before (in 2015 especially) and so using Edmunds with Sean Davis and Morgan Burnett at the same time is possible for them. At the moment Edmunds isn’t getting the hype he probably should do so there’s a nice window to obtain him at a good price. Long term, you’ve got a good LB/S hybrid. In 2018, it’s entirely possible he’s a safety-eligible cheat-code linebacker.
Notable stat: Just five total missed tackles in 2018. Derwin James had eight.
3. Minkah Fitzpatrick, S MIA
We can argue back and forth about how the Dolphins will use Fitzpatrick but of course, we won’t really know until he gets on the field. The team has already said they’ll use him as a safety but that means plenty of things. It could easily mean that he plays mostly in the slot which is the position Alabama thought he was best in.
With Reshad Jones on the field, we certainly know that tackles are not going to come easy so I’m much lower on Fitzpatrick in IDP terms than I am in NFL terms. His name recognition is huge, so I’ll be sitting back and watching him be over-drafted in my leagues.
Notable stat: In 2017 played 67% of defensive snaps in the slot. Just 6% at safety.
4. Ronnie Harrison, S JAX
We’re only on to fourth on the list and already we’re looking at players who will be backups early on. Harrison is a great prospect to play box safety, but the Jaguars have Barry Church in that role for now which means we need to show patience. In time I believe he’ll get his opportunity but (injury excepted) that’s unlikely to be in 2018.
Notable stat: Allowed one reception (directly into his coverage) for every 45 coverage snaps.
5. Kyzir White, S LAC
Kyzir White was announced as a linebacker and not a safety at the podium which is intriguing given the Chargers issues at the position. They failed to settle on a pair of starters last season with only Denzel Perryman secure in the job. I don’t really expect White to win one of the jobs, but crazier things have happened. Regardless he’s a good player and there are multiple routes to playing time for him.
Notable stat: Allowed an NFL passer rating of just 54.2 into his coverage in his final year of college.
6. Natrell Jamerson, S NO
What? Did you think my draft crush wouldn’t make this list? Jamerson was selected in the fifth round and that makes him a pretty sizeable outsider to earn the snaps needed to produce but I think he can do it. This man does not appreciate limitations at all. Last year the Saints used Kenny Vaccaro in the slot. As we keep seeing slot players are evolving to stay in line with the players offenses use there. I think that’s Jamerson’s best position in the pros and he’s got an excellent chance to win the job with the tenacity and passion he displays on the field.
Notable stat: Eight coverage plays (two interceptions and six defended passes) on just 24 targets in 2017.
7. Jessie Bates, S CIN
Bates has an excellent opportunity to win a starting spot given the capital invested in him which appears to suggest a lack of confidence in George Iloka. Unfortunately, the Bengals rotate their safeties as a matter of course which means even the upside of a starting job isn’t that tantalizing. There’s just no dedicated box safety job available on the Bengals which means Bate sis capped in terms of his production.
Notable stat: 43 total tackles on 320 snaps against the run in 2017 for a 13.4% tackle efficiency.
8. Justin Reid, S HOU
Reid also has the chance of winning a starting spot that isn’t that enthralling. Romeo Crennel has a history of using not just two safeties but four. He is the one defensive coach that seems to favor some sort of rotation at the position (beyond using different skill sets for different defensive roles). In four of the last five years, Crennel has run a defense (including 2017 when he was peering over Mike Vrabel’s shoulder) no Crennel safety has finished in the top 30 of snaps at the position. If a player is capped at 700-800 snaps then it’s just extremely hard to pile up significant individual statistics compared to his peers.
Notable stat: managed two interceptions when lined up as a slot DB in 2017.
9. Tarvarius Moore, S SF
This is a good landing spot for Moore. He doesn’t look like he’s ready to be a starter yet, but he has talent and should contribute at least in 2018. Jaquiski Tartt is installed as the strong safety in San Francisco (and is one of the more underrated IDPs in the league) and Jimmie Ward is expected to play deep. But last year the 49ers showed us just how quickly depth charts can change in the NFL. Adrian Colbert and Lorenzo Jerome are very much average talents, so Moore will very likely get a chance to show what he can do.
Notable stat: Seven pass breakups ranked him seventh amongst all college safeties in 2017.
10. Marcus Allen, S PIT
I spoke earlier about the Steelers’ seeming desire to move to far more big nickel personnel use. They backed that up selecting not one but two more safeties after Terrell Edmunds in the 20218 draft. Jordan Whitehead went in the fourth round and Marcus Allen in the fifth.
Given what we know about injury rates, I fully expect to see these two both get on the field at some point, but Allen is the far better prospect in IDP terms. Whitehead is the closest thing the Steelers have to a specialist deep safety. Whilst Allen, in the words of PFF, “attacks downhill in the run game. Classic box safety.”.
Notable stat: 246 total tackles (197 solos, 49 assists) over the last three seasons.
Initially, this class was not that promising but once I dug a little (OK, a lot) deeper, it starts to look much more exciting. If you’re looking for immediate impact, then there’s only a couple of promising players at the moment but I fully expect more to be significant contributors during the season and even a couple of deeper sleepers to pick up value.
Thanks for reading.
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