Post-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three
Dynasty Christmas is finally here! Or as some people call it, the NFL draft. After so much waiting, hypothesizing, debating, and hoping, we finally know which teams are connected to which players. That means we can now begin the process of trying to figure out what can and will happen once the rookies hit the field this fall.
Before we get to any of that, you have your rookie drafts! Possibly starting as soon as today, it is your turn to do your best predicting and forecasting on who will be the next stars in the NFL. To help you make your decisions. I gathered some of DLF’s finest to put together an instant reaction rookie mock draft.
We conducted the three round mock on Saturday afternoon, just as the final rounds of the NFL draft were wrapping up. That means these are our initial reactions and thoughts on how these players should be valued. For this mock, we assumed it was PPR scoring without any glaring team needs. The results were tweeted out live as they occurred using #dlfrookiemock.
This is how things turned out in the third round. If you missed the first round or the second round, you should go take a look.
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Early Third Round
3.01 – Kalen Ballage, RB MIA
3.02 – Tre’Quan Smith, WR NO
3.03 – Nyheim Hines, RB IND
3.04 – Mark Andrews, TE BAL
We have now arrived in the third round, the land of upside and fliers. At this point in the draft, especially later in the round, I’m looking for players who either have reasonably clear paths to playing time or who are athletically gifted but with big holes. The hope for the former group is they do a little something as a rookie, and I can trade them for a second-round pick next off-season. With the latter, I’m planning on holding them for a few years and hoping their athletic upside gets them some playing time. Most of the players in this round will fit into one or the other of these categories.
Ballage is an interesting player who I have struggled with. I don’t know how his skill set fits in a traditional running back role. The good news for him is that he ended up in a situation without a clear, established running back. While I like Kenyan Drake, he doesn’t have the long history of production which would gift him the starting role. That means with an impressive training camp, Ballage could steal a fair number of snaps. If that happens, I’m definitely looking to trade him, because I don’t think he has the skills to sustain the production.
One of my favorite picks of the early third was Smith. He is definitely good enough athletically that I’m intrigued by what he might become as a pro player. The fact he landed in New Orleans with Drew Brees gets me a bit excited. I also think the depth chart is a bit more wide open than it appears at first glance. Michael Thomas is clearly the top target, and Smith isn’t going to change that. Outside of that, you have Ted Ginn (who is older than you think), and a bunch of others with injury questions. It is possible Smith could be the second receiver by the middle of the season.
Hines was one of the more interesting picks, not just in the third round but also in the NFL draft. The Colts have a pretty large hole at the position, but they didn’t address the position until the fourth round when they drafted Hines. The issue with Hines is he isn’t a complete running back. I think he will be great for the Colts if they use him right, but due to his part-time role, he is unlikely to be a true fantasy asset. Then again, maybe he can be so productive with limited touches that he does push for flex consideration. He could be lightning in a bottle.
Andrews had a very interesting draft. It isn’t because of where he was selected in the NFL draft, but rather because he was the second tight end selected by the Ravens in this draft. That definitely clouds his future a little bit. As I mentioned when I talked about Hayden Hurst in the second round, I think Andrews will be the part-time pass catcher while Hurst is the full-time tight end. However, this means Hurst will be the blocking tight end in two tight end sets. This makes Andrews a solid pick at this point in the draft because he could push for end TE2 numbers as soon as this year.
Middle of the Third Round
3.05 – Lamar Jackson, QB BAL
3.06 – Antonio Callaway, WE CLE
3.07 – Jaylen Samuels, ??? PIT
3.08 – DaeSean Hamilton, WR DEN
Jackson is a player you are going to see all over the board. I know there are several people who have Jackson as their top quarterback even after the Ravens took him. I also know there are other people who have him way down their board. If you use a traditional scoring system, he is the boom or bust type of quarterback you want. If he hits, you could be looking at a top-five quarterback in fantasy leagues thanks to his talent and his explosive upside.
Callaway landing in Cleveland doesn’t exactly thrill me. It isn’t so much due to the fit but rather due to the culture. As you probably know, he had some issues in college. Cleveland doesn’t have the established culture and leadership to help him stay on the straight and narrow, which is very concerning for his future. The talent is undeniable, but I would have liked him much better on a team with some strong veteran leadership. Nonetheless, as an upside pick, he is worth a shot. Just keep him on a short leash, because if he starts having issues it will go downhill pretty quickly.
Out of all of the players in this draft class, the one I’ve had the biggest issues with this year is Samuels. It has nothing to do with what he does on the field, but rather because I have absolutely no idea what position he will play in the NFL. I still think he is more of an H-back than anything else. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Steelers line him up as a fullback and then motion him out into the slot from time to time. Overall, I think he is another player who will be better in the NFL than he will be in fantasy leagues.
Hamilton is a very sneaky pick, and I love it. He joins a very crowded receiver group in Denver with Thomas and Sanders at the top as well as fellow rookie Courtland Sutton. However, both Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are getting a little long in the tooth with large, mostly unguaranteed contracts after this year. It is entirely possible that Hamilton could learn from Sanders and then step into his role in a year or two. As a middle to late third round pick, I’m more than willing to take that shot and hope something pans out down the road.
End of the Third Round
3.09 – Deon Cain, WR IND
3.10 – Equanimeous St. Brown, WR GB
3.11 – Jaleel Scott, WR BAL
3.12 – Daurice Fountain, WR IND
The last four picks of our mock were all big swings. They will either be home runs or they will be out of the league within a few years. What three of the four have in common, assuming Andrew Luck comes back to full health, is they play with elite quarterbacks who should be at the helm of top-tier offenses. As we all know, if the offenses are scoring, then someone needs to be moving the ball and getting those touchdowns!
Cain was a player who was as high as the early second round in rookie mocks once upon a time, but I think his fall in the NFL draft will make him a late third round flier for sure in most leagues. None the less, the Colts depth chart at the receiver position is thin, to say the least. Behind T.Y. Hilton, there isn’t much for established production. They did sign Ryan Grant this year, but he doesn’t bring a lot of size to the field either. That means the “big” receiver role is completely up for grabs, and Cain has the ability to step into that role in the offense.
Speaking of bigger receivers, Equanimeous St. Brown, the pre-draft favorite of so many, was one of the shockers of the draft. I don’t think anyone expected him to fall to the sixth round. I wasn’t ever super high on him, but I was thinking third or fourth round for him. While he did land in a good situation with the Packers who just cut Jordy Nelson and could be looking to move on from Randall Cobb in the near future, he is one of many who want those snaps. He was the third receiver the Packers drafted this year, and one of ten receivers who are currently on the roster and have joined the team in the last two years. The chances aren’t great that he is the one who emerges, but he has size and athleticism that you can’t coach.
Jaleel Scott isn’t joining an elite offense. Instead, he is joining a team desperate for some wide receiver talent. The Ravens made a lot of moves in free agency, but the majority of them are short-term band-aids intended to give some options this year. The future of the position, especially with Breshad Perriman not getting extended, is very much up in the air. Scott is a big, physical receiver with nice hands and ball skills. However, he is a bit limited athletically which hurts him when it comes to route running and separation. Regardless, with the holes on the Ravens’ depth chart, he is someone to watch.
Mr. Irrelevant of this mock was Fountain. He was actually drafted before Cain in the NFL draft, but he wasn’t on the radars of as many people pre-draft. For this reason, I think he will routinely go after Cain in rookie drafts. You can pretty much copy most of what I said about Cain down here. The Colts need receivers, very badly. He wasn’t invited to the Combine, but he has solid size and speed to burn. The small school prospect is inconsistent and raw, but he has the physical tools and a great situation to potentially be a diamond in the rough. Keep an eye on him, especially super late in drafts.
That’s it for the mock draft! Who are the players we didn’t draft who are on your radar?
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
