Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Derrius Guice, RB WAS

Joseph Nammour Posted On May 4, 2018

Editor’s Note: To help you dominate your rookie drafts, this series will feature a look at the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of over 40 dynasty rookie draft prospects and run all through the month of May and even into June. We’ll cover all the premier prospects but also give you critical information on some of the lesser known talents. All of these rookie updates will be loaded into our ever-evolving 2018 Rookie Draft Guide – the ultimate resource for dynasty enthusiasts all over the world.

Name: Derrius Guice

Position: Running Back

Pro Team: Washington Redskins

College Team: Louisiana State Tigers

Draft Status: Round two, 59th overall

Video Highlights

Combine Review

Height: 5’10.5’’
Weight: 224 Pounds
Hands: 9’’
Arm Length: 30 3/4’’
Bench Press (225 Pounds): 15 Reps
40-Yard-Dash: 4.49
Vertical: 31.5’’

Strengths

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

Guice’s film and production are among the best in this class, and he may be the best pure runner in this deep group. He’s incredibly dangerous with the ball in his hands, utilizing his good size to punish would-be tacklers by seeking out contact and running violently at all times. Guice’s balance is special, allowing him to bounce off defenders and continue downfield.

Be sure to keep checking our Complete Dynasty Rookie Rankings for constantly updated rookie values!

Guice has good vision, often finding cutback lanes and using his acceleration to burst through a hole and reach the second level of the defense, where he uses his ferocity to create extra yardage for himself. His game revolves around his physicality, but his high motor allows him to continue to dole out punishment throughout games as he wears down opposing defenses.

Weaknesses

Guice isn’t a prospect with litany of issues. He doesn’t have elite long speed, but a sub-4.5 time is plenty adequate for the way he runs. His aggressive, contact-seeking running style has led to some durability issues, particularly since Leonard Fournette’s departure for the NFL. Like his predecessor at LSU, Guice struggles with his efficacy at less than 100%, which could limit the length of his career.

Guice isn’t a player who was asked to do much in the receiving game at LSU. His pass protection needs work, but he likely won’t be on the field particularly often in obvious passing situations. LSU never leant on their running backs to catch the ball out of the backfield, but Guice has shown adequate ability in this area when targeted. However, just because a prospect isn’t asked to do something often doesn’t mean he can’t do it. The larger concern with Guice’s receiving upside has nothing to do with him, as we’ll get to shortly.

For someone who was considered a lock for the first round for most of the pre-draft process, Guice’s high-profile fall in the draft has raised some eyebrows about his personality and his likeability. Six separate teams passed on Guice in favor of other running backs, and this is a cause for concern. Despite this, he was still drafted in the second round and should ascend to the lead spot in the backfield immediately.

Opportunities

The Washington Redskins needed a lead back going into the draft, because injuries and subpar play led Washington to utilize five different backs heavily throughout the 2017 season. Samaje Perine struggled with ball security and production in his opportunities throughout his rookie season and Rob Kelley is the definition of a pedestrian talent, so Guice should be able to step in right away and command a significant early-down role. Chris Thompson shouldn’t get in the way of Guice on early downs or on the goal line, so he should be able to assume around 200 touches as a rookie as a minimum.

Threats

Guice should quickly surpass Perine and Kelley, but Chris Thompson’s third-down role is securely intact, limiting Guice’s potential to be a well-rounded workhorse right away despite an ability to contribute in this area. Head Coach Jay Gruden has even gone so far as to say that Thompson’s role will not change despite the drafting of Guice.

The problem with Thompson throughout his career is his lack of durability, which could benefit Guice greatly if he were to go down again. Perine, who isn’t known for his receiving prowess, saw 16 targets in six games following the injuries to Kelley and Thompson, while rotating with Kapri Bibbs and Byron Marshall – both of whom may not belong in the NFL for much longer.

Short-Term Expectations

Guice should be expected to immediately command the lion’s share of the carries on early downs. He’s the favorite for goal-line touches in a decent offense, and should be able to add a couple receptions per game. He should be able to return RB2 value in fantasy lineups as the hammer in Washington’s offensive attack. If Thompson were to succumb to injury again, Guice would have high-end RB1 upside.

Long-Term Expectations

It may take a few years, but Guice has all the ability to contribute on all three downs in the NFL. If Thompson moves on to a different team or cannot stay healthy, Guice could develop into a Melvin Gordon-like threat in the receiving game. Gordon wasn’t considered a pass catcher as a prospect coming out of Wisconsin, but had 58 receptions in 2017 after catching 33 and 41 in his first two seasons.

As mentioned above, his running style may take a toll on his body and his effectiveness as time goes on. A couple years down the line, if Guice starts to falter, he’d be an immediate candidate to sell before his value drops off a cliff.

NFL Comparison

Guice’s strengths and running style are reminiscent of Marshawn Lynch. They’re similar in size, stature, and long speed, but utilize balance, power, and acceleration break through tackles and create yards after contact frequently. Guice also has similarities to early-career Frank Gore.

Projected Range for Rookie Drafts

Guice was the consensus 1.02 pre-draft in both DLF’s rookie rankings and DLF’s Rookie ADP. Expect this to dip a bit now that more information is available. Saquon Barkley has locked up the 1.01 spot, but Guice has fallen into a tier with Rashaad Penny, Sony Michel, Nick Chubb, DJ Moore, and Ronald Jones post-draft. Because of this, 1.02-1.07 is the range in which Guice could be selected.

[/am4show]