Good JuJu: Buying High on a Talented Young Receiver

Bobby Koch Posted On May 2, 2018

JuJu Smith-Schuster burst onto the scene in 2017. Whether it was captivating fans with his impressive rookie numbers or his awesome touchdown celebrations, his was a name that every NFL fan came to know. One of the major discussions on fantasy Twitter this off-season seems to have become whether JuJu is being overvalued because we like his personality. Initially, I thought there was some of that at play but let me demonstrate why I have come to believe that his power level could be over 9,000.

Take a look at our Dynasty Wide Receiver Rankings to see where Smith-Schuster lands!

Background

Smith-Schuster was a second round pick out of USC in the 2017 draft. He led USC in receiving yards every season except his freshman season where he had strong competition from Nelson Agholor. In fact, during his sophomore season, he had the fourth most receiving yards in the nation with 1,454.

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Despite his good college career, many were concerned by the fact that he had somewhat of a down season in his junior year. That led him to slide down dynasty draft boards a bit. This time last year, he was widely considered the fourth best wide receiver in the rookie class after Corey Davis, Mike Williams, and John Ross. This meant most owners who were grabbing Smith-Schuster got him in either the late first or early second of rookie drafts last season. So, what did he provide them with?

The 2017 season

I’m not sure that anyone saw JuJu’s 58-917-7 on only 79 targets coming. I did start to like him when I did research for week six of my chasing the targets article because I noticed he was getting increasingly more red zone usage. But I never would have guessed he’d end his rookie season with seven touchdowns. If you did, can you please tell me how George R Martin will end A Song of Fire and Ice?

People who think Smith-Schuster are overvalued will knock over a young child to prove to you that his numbers were all accumulated in the games that Antonio Brown didn’t play. He did put up huge numbers when Brown was out, but look at these splits from Rotoviz:

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You may notice that neither of the full season numbers matches what Smith-Schuster did on the season. He missed both weeks 11 and 13 due to a hamstring injury. I know that pace doesn’t always work out, but I think it’s encouraging that in games with Brown playing, Smith-Schuster was pacing to put up even better numbers than he finished with.

Let’s also discuss those 79 targets briefly. Anyone want to take a stab at how many players have managed to put up 900 or more yards on less than 80 targets? If you answered two, you’re likely the psychic I mentioned earlier who knew that Smith-Schuster’s huge rookie season was coming. The complete list is below:

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I realize John Taylor isn’t the most encouraging player to show up on this list, but let’s keep in mind he accomplished the feat in his age-31 season, not his age-21 season. I applaud him, but Smith-Schuster’s accomplishment is a bit more impressive. Just in case you were curious, if you expand the list to include the list of receivers who were targeted 100 times or fewer, it becomes 29 players instead of just two. However, only six of them got to 900 or more yards on under 90 targets.

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Just in case you’re not in complete awe of Smith-Schuster’s rookie season based on how efficient he was, let me hit you with another historical fact. He was one of 37 wide receivers to have 900 or more receiving yards as a rookie. If you narrow it down to the last ten seasons, that becomes a list of 14 and includes such names as Odell Beckham, Michael Thomas, Amari Cooper, AJ Green, Mike Evans, Julio Jones, and Keenan Allen. Granted, it also includes Kelvin Benjamin, Eddie Royal, and Mike Williams but it’s a list of more good than bad.

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Julio Jones is very interesting, and a comparison who has often been thrown around for Smith-Schuster. Before you come try to steal my bike, let me explain myself. When Julio was drafted, the Falcons already had superstar Roddy White on their team. Julio played a few seasons with Roddy before taking over as the target hog when the Falcons knew they wanted to start phasing Roddy out of their offense.

In those years playing second fiddle to Roddy, Jones finished as the WR21 and WR11 in PPR leagues. I’m not going to get into 2013 because it was injury shortened for both him and Roddy, but 2011 and 2012 demonstrated he was capable of being the second option but still being huge in fantasy. You probably know where I’m going with this.

Smith-Schuster currently plays opposite Antonio Brown who I mentioned earlier. In his rookie season, he managed to finish as the WR21 in PPR leagues. I’m not about to sit here and tell you he will finish as the WR11 this coming season, but it’s honestly not bad to play behind a guy like Brown who will take the attention of the defense of you. The Steelers also have a long history of an older WR mentoring a younger WR and passing the torch, whether it was Mike Wallace to Antonio Brown, Santonio Holmes to Wallace, Or Hines Ward to Holmes.

It’s probably about the time we addressed the elephant in the room: the continuity looks great, but you’re concerned about the fact that Ben Roethlisberger may retire soon. Well, you may notice that from Ward to Antonio Brown spans nearly 20 years. Not all of those were played with Big Ben. I know it’s easier said than done to find a franchise quarterback, just ask the Browns, but I believe in the Steelers organization enough that I’m not worried about what the succession plan is after Ben.

Conclusion

At this point, you may find yourself agreeing with me but saying, “Smith-Schuster is already the 16th-ranked WR according to DLF April ADP. Doesn’t Bobby usually write about undervalued players?” I hope you’re wearing shorts because unlike the terrible April weather we’re having on the east coast, things are about to get hot.

I believe Smith-Schuster has the potential to be a first-round startup pick for dynasty purposes as early as next off-season.

If he has another performance like he did in his rookie season he will be heading into his age-23 season with two seasons of strong performance. If you’re anything like me, you may want to “buy high” on JuJu before he goes Super Saiyan Two.

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