IDP-Only Round One NFL Mock Draft
We’ve finally made it all the way through to draft week! 11 weeks have already passed in the off-season. There are only another 16 until preseason starts. I’ll be spending most of the summer working on projections and trades but the draft is the only thing I can see right now.
You’ll have read a million different mock drafts and they’ll all be almost wrong. This is slightly different in that I expect it to all be wrong. It’s a mock to show what I’d do as the general manager for every team in the first round – if I could only select defensive players. I’ve not included any trading because, as I say, this is very much not how things will play out.
The lack of offensive players means some talent goes here who are really third round (or even later) prospects. It’s not about accuracy – it’s about enjoying one of the most dramatic sporting events in the world. At least of ones that don’t involve anyone actually doing any sport.
1. Cleveland Browns Bradley Chubb, DE North Carolina State
Pass rusher is the most valuable position on the defensive side of football and for me Chubb is the top option. He’s the most valuable player in the draft and although all teams always need another pass rusher, the Browns have a clear need as well.
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2. New York Giants Denzel Ward, CB Ohio State
It’d be easy to put another pass rusher here but after the Giants whiffed on Eli Apple they have a burning need for a top corner. Ward is feisty, has excellent man skills and allowed just 35% of balls thrown at him to be completed in 2017.
3. New York Yets Harold Landry, OLB Boston College
Quick – who was the last good Jets edge rusher? Yeah, I can’t remember either. Even when Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Rankins were at their peak together with Leonard Williams, they lacked an outside rusher. I think Landry could fit in beautifully with their 3-4 scheme and potentially transform the defense with pure speed around the corner.
4. Cleveland Browns Roquan Smith, LB Georgia
The more pressing need here is probably corner but I just can’t resist Smith. Christian Kirksey and Jamie Collins were both bad in coverage in 2017. Hopefully one or both can improve this year, but I don’t think it’s feasible to argue that Smith wouldn’t improve the unit.
5. Denver Broncos Derwin James, S Florida State
With Aqib Talib out of Denver, I was tempted again to go corner but like the previous pick, I couldn’t bring myself to pass up the elite talent on the board. Justin Simmons is a perfectly good NFL player but adding James to that unit would instantly add so much flexibility and disguisability to the unit. For a team that already plays a lot of big nickel, this would be enormously tantalizing.
6. Indianapolis Colts Joshua Jackson, CB Iowa
Lots of people are seeing the Colts taking an edge rusher but with Jabaal Sheard an underrated player there, I think corner cannot be ignored. The Colts might have been the worst team in the league at corner in 2017 and in my eyes it’s the third most important position in football. Jackson is long and rangy in the style of modern corners and managed 18 passed defended and eight interceptions in 2017. He’d instantly be the best corner on the team.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Marcus Davenport, DE UTSA
The Bucs were the worst pass rushing team in the NFL in 2017. Adding Jason Pierre-Paul and Vinny Curry was good but neither of those are long-term solutions. Davenport is outrageously talented as a speed power prospect but needs polish. What better way to get that than spelling two vets? In this situation Davenport could have a similar rookie season to Derek Barnett or Takkarist McKinley in 2017.
8. Chicago Bears Minkah Fitzpatrick, CB Alabama
It’s easy to argue that pass rusher is a big need. Leonard Floyd has flashed but is not a dominant player at this stage. For me though, corner is even more pressing. Kyle Fuller was good in 2017 but it should be reiterated that he was poor the preceding two years and also led the league in targets. Oppositions last year thought Fuller was a weak point on the Bears. Fitzpatrick would instantly come in as an impact slot player with the upside of being able to play as a boundary corner if he can handle the transition.
9. San Francisco 49ers Tremaine Edmunds, LB Virginia Tech
This pick would sting given the 49ers also spent their 2017 first round pick on a linebacker (a non-premium position). With Reuben Foster facing serious legal issues the opportunity to add a talent like Edmunds is too tantalising. If Foster is proven innocent then the two of them together would be absurdly exciting. Foster would nail down the coverage side of things with Edmunds a bit more freed up to rush the passer and dominate the running game.
10. Oakland Raiders, Leighton Vander Esch LB Boise State
There are lots of directions the Raiders could go after they drastically backslid in 2017. When I look at their inside LBs, I see a bunch of complementary role players but no real dominant player. Vander Esch is a gamble to be that but certainly has the potential with his combination of crazy athleticism, hard-hitting and alpha-dog mentality.
11. Miami Dolphins, Maurice Hurst DT Michigan
Hurst’s medical red flag at the Combine was pretty terrifying but the opportunity to nab the best interior pass rusher in the class at this stage is too tempting. With Ndamukong Suh and his absurd contract out of town, the Dolphins are desperate for a player to push the pocket up the middle. No one in this class is as good as Hurst at his best in that phase of the game.
12. Buffalo Bills Rashaan Evans, LB Alabama
Without the need to go after a quarterback, the Bills are freed up to fill defensive holes. Taking Evans would stop them needing to rely on Lorenzo Alexander or Ramon Humber at linebacker. Evans is a vicious player on the line of scrimmage which would be invaluable in Buffalo where teams pass less than most other venues.
13. Washington Redskins Jaire Alexander, CB Louisville
Josh Norman isn’t getting any younger and behind him, Quinton Dunbar and Fabian Moreau aren’t scaring anyone. Alexander would instantly slot in behind Norman. Alexander would replace Kendal Fuller and play both outside and in the slot.
14. Green Bay Packers Uchenna Nwosu, OLB USC
Clay Matthews was surprisingly effective last season but there’s a significant gap between him and the reserves. The Packers prize flexibility and the ability to line up in multiple spots and Nwosu could blend being an edge rusher as well as playing inside.
15. Arizona Cardinals Mike Hughes, CB UCF
Number two corner across from Patrick Peterson has been an issue for a couple of years in Arizona. Hughes is far from a finished product but has a ceiling vastly higher than players the Cardinals currently have at the position.
16. Baltimore Ravens Justin Reid, S Stanford
Eric Weddle and Tony Jefferson are a good pairing, but the Ravens need to have an eye on the future. The Ravens selected Tyus Bowser, Tim Williams, and Marlon Humphrey as project picks last season, which relieves the pressure at edge and corner. Reid’s intelligence and ability to play deep and in the box strongly remind me of Weddle as a prospect.
17. LA Chargers Taven Bryan, DT Florida
The Chargers’ defensive line is suddenly a contender to be the most fearsome in the NFL with this pick. In 2017, Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa were great on the edge but they lacked interior pressure. After Maurice Hurst, Taven Bryan has the best chance to add serious disruption in the trenches in this class. He’s got a sudden first step and a frame that’s incredibly similar to J.J. Watt’s.
18. Seattle Seahawks Isaiah Oliver, CB Colorado
In the real NFL draft, I could easily see an edge rusher but make no mistake corner is a drastic need too. I suspect they’ll draft corners later because with Pete Carroll in town developing less elite corner talent is possible. But with this board, I’d take Oliver in a heartbeat. He’s got the frame that we expect from Seattle corners and although he makes mistakes has potential to be a starter in 2018.
19. Dallas Cowboys Vita Vea, DT Washington
This might actually be the pick in the real draft. The Cowboys always seems to prize glamour more than grit and their defensive interior is a good example at the moment. Vea’s disruptiveness is more about causing trouble than single-mindedly putting the QB in the dirt but he would solidify them against the run whilst also bringing three-down ability.
20. Detroit Lions Da’Ron Payne, DT Alabama
I think Matt Patricia needs to solidify the Lions in his first season. The Patriots defensive philosophy has always been about excellent fundamentals and although there are really good players in Detroit there’s not been enough balance in recent years.
Lining Payne up next to A’Shawn Robinson (both Alabama alumni, of course) on the inside would give them the basis of an extremely stout unit against the run which would enable Patricia to unleash his creativity around a fixed point.
21. Cincinnati Bengals Donte Jackson, CB LSU
William Jackson came on last season to look like an elite corner in the making. But Dre Kirkpatrick and Darqueze Dennard are eminently upgradeable players. The Bengals used a wider variety of corners than any other team last year (nine games where four or more games played significantly) which tells me they’re not happy with their current roster.
22. Buffalo Bills Duke Ejiofor, DE Wake Forest
I was hugely disappointed with Shaq Lawson last season. I thought he’d flourish under Sean McDermott but he just wasn’t good enough to take advantage of the opportunity. I’m not sure Ejiofor is going to be a star but as part of a committee with Jerry Hughes, Lawson and Eddie Yarbrough, he could be a real impact player.
23. New England Patriots Carlton Davis, CB Auburn
Carlton Davis is a big, physical corner. He was inconsistent (especially in big games) but showed the ability to play against big, strong receivers and make plays on the ball. The Patriots have tried to go after corners like him before with varied success (hello Ras-I Dowling) but there is definitely a role for players like him in an era of enormous receivers.
24. Carolina Panthers MJ Stewart, CB North Carolina
Stewart has some issues which have prevented him getting more hype but he’s a very solid player and the Panthers do not have the opportunity to be picky given their limited depth at DB. Stewart managed 27 PDs in his last three seasons which shows how well he competes for the ball. He’d be able to help instantly in sub packages and I think he’d fit well in their zone-heavy scheme.
25. Tennessee Titans Kemoko Turay, OLB Rutgers
I love Turay as a specialist pass rusher but his limitations in the running game will likely prevent him being a full-time player as a rookie. The Titans have Brian Orakpo and Derrick Morgan installed which would allow Turay to play 500 snaps and develop more gradually. He’s long, powerful and bendy but the fact he never managed more than four sacks in a season shows how raw he is.
26. Atlanta Falcons Da’Shawn Hand, DT Alabama
Hand played a lot of DE at Alabama but I think he looks like a tackle in the NFL. He’d fit in beautifully next to Grady Jarrett on a defense that is still all about speed. Those two flanked by Vic Beasley and Takkarist McKinley would clearly be all about a modern NFL where rushing the passer is the most important part of a defensive front’s job.
27. New Orleans Saints Shaun Dion Hamilton, LB Alabama
The Saints have the luxury of picking for talent rather than need here and the potential of Hamilton (who has had a couple of nasty injuries) is worth the risk here. I’m not sure I can trust either Hamilton or Alex Anzalone to play a full season but the two of them together could hold down the spot next to Demario Davis.
28. Pittsburgh Steelers Jerome Baker, LB Ohio State
Baker is the best example in this draft of a new position we’re seeing emerge in the NFL: the specialist coverage LB. I don’t think he’ll play 1,000 snaps because I don’t think he has a complete NFL LB skillset but he’s fantastic in the receiving game. This would not be a direct replacement for Ryan Shazier but the combination of Baker and Jon Bostic could work nicely in the same way as Avery Williamson and Jayon Brown combined in Tennessee last season.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars Ronnie Harrison, S Alabama
The Jaguars were historically healthy last season. Telvin Smith missed two games but aside from that everyone lasted the whole year which is almost unheard of. Naturally I expect that to change in 2018 and right at the front of injury risks is 30-year old strong safety Barry Church. Harrison would slot in as a direct replacement in case of injury but also as the new starter from 2018 onwards.
30. Minnesota Vikings Genard Avery, LB Memphis
The Vikings have a stacked roster under Mike Zimmer but having paid Kirk Cousins the risk of losing players is very real. Chief amongst those is Anthony Barr who I expect to leave the team after 2018. Avery is a similar player. He’s excelled as both a pass rusher and an off-ball linebacker. He’s raw but a year of off-field development under Zimmer could turn him into a viable starter in a year’s time and a great value pick at this stage.
31. New England Patriots Quin Blanding, S Virginia
The Patriots continue to add to their secondary here. They could easily add a LB or a DE too but the value for me is Blanding. Patrick Chung will be 31 by the end of the 2018 season and the Patriots will be looking for a replacement who can play box safety and in the slot. Blanding isn’t going to be an NFL star, but I think he’s versatile and would thrive in the Patriots’ system.
32. Philadelphia Eagles Jessie Bates, S Wake Forest
Similar to New England Malcolm Jenkins is closing in on being 31. He’s had a fantastic career but the Eagles would be well-served by adding a potential replacement. Corey Graham is a useful role player but I don’t see a starter on a championship-level team. Bates’ physicality is a fine starting point that would allow Jim Schwartz to develop him.
It will not have been wasted on you that the talent towards the end of this draft was in no way plug-and-play level. There were plenty of projects that snuck into it. This is exactly what I’d expect from players who will likely be picked at the end of round two or early round three. It’s a reminder of the fact that most drafts offer limited stars. It’s just not realistic to expect multiple elite players in any one year.
As IDP owners, this is important to remember at this time of year. You’ll fall in love with prospects and see screaming value. That’s part of the fun of the game but smarter owners will always remember just how many of those feelings are misplaced and not go crazy.
Thanks for reading.
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