A View From the 1.12: Rookie Draft Strategy
For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft and we are now less than three weeks away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention, and sometimes even before, we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks, or if they will use them at all.
In this twelve-part series, I’ll use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder, to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, I’ll suggest the player you could be soon adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, I’ll also include a potential pivot option.
Also, I’ll include options based on the updated 2QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, I will examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick. Each trade is based on 12 team PPR, one QB leagues.
We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months, if not years, but difference makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, I’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.
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1.12
The Pick: Christian Kirk, WR Texas A&M
Much like James Washington in the 1.11 version of this series, I haven’t quite figured out why Kirk is viewed as a tier below the top wideouts, DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley and Courtland Sutton. Kirk dominated the SEC during his time there, both as a receiver and in the return game. He’s a lock to be a day two pick in the NFL and is a steal at the end of the first round.
Possible Pivots:
If you’re shopping for a running back with this pick instead, both Kerryon Johnson and Royce Freeman have been drafted in this tier, as has John Kelly. Other receiver options include Equanimeous St. Brown and Washington. If tight ends Dallas Goedert or Mike Gesicki land in New Orleans, they could certainly vault up to this range as well.
Trade Value:
- Deshaun Watson for Dede Westbrook, 1.12
- DeAndre Hopkins for Michael Thomas, 1.12
- George Kittle, 2.07 for Dontrelle Inman, 1.12
- Patrick Mahomes, Kareem Hunt for Jameis Winston, Jordan Howard, 1.12
- 1.04 for Marvin Jones, 1.12
Super-Flex Options: DJ Moore, WR Maryland
Maryland’s Moore could be the top receiver drafted in both the NFL and dynasty rookie drafts. With the strength and depth of both the running back and quarterback class this year, super-flex rookie drafts might only include one or two receivers in the entire top 12.
2.12
The Pick: Mike Gesicki, TE Penn State
As mentioned earlier, landing spots will be crucial for the top tight ends, and Gesicki has been linked to the Saints as a first-rounder in the days leading up to the NFL Draft. If that were to play out, not only would he not be available at the end of the second round, he could jump a full round. Regardless, Gesicki’s draft position should climb after his very impressive Combine and expected top 50 draft position.
Possible Pivots:
Other options likely to be available in this range include wide receiver Anthony Miller, along with quarterbacks Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen.
Trade Value:
- Jordy Nelson for 2.12
- Samaje Perine, ArDarius Stewart for 2.12
- Austin Seferian-Jenkins for 2.12
- 1.03 for 1.09, 2.12, 2019 first
- Randall Cobb, 4.01 for Cameron Meredith, 2.12
Super-Flex Options: Mason Rudolph, QB Oklahoma State
With the top five quarterbacks expected to be gone by the top half of the first round, some teams will miss out and be forced to look for alternatives. The first option could be Mason Rudolph, who put up major stats during his Oklahoma State career. With the opportunity to add a fifth-year option for first rounders, there has been speculation that teams could target Rudolph with their late day one pick and plan to sit him for a year. This combination of higher than expected draft capital and the plan to sit out a year would make valuing Rudolph a tricky proposition but landing a first-round quarterback at the end of the second round of rookie drafts is a dream in this format.
3.12
The Pick: Tre’Quan Smith, WR UCF
Smith was the star for the Golden Knights in their run to their self-proclaimed National Championship, but he’s gotten little fanfare from dynasty players. As Eliot Crist of 4for4.com recently said, Smith is a player that we should let the NFL tell us how they feel, based on the draft capital used on Smith.
Possible Pivots:
This is the point in the draft where there are no real reaches and we can almost throw ADP out the window. Other players who could be available with this pick include Washington receiver Dante Pettis as well as Allen Lazard and Hayden Hurst.
Trade Value:
- 2.06, 3.05 for Trey Burton, 3.09, 3.12
- Case Keenum for 3.12
- Kevin White, 3.06 for Paul Richardson, 3.12
Super-Flex Options: Josh Adams, RB Notre Dame
I was recently asked to name a player currently being drafted in the second or third round who could look like a total bust and lose all value on draft weekend. Notre Dame’s Adams was my response. Adams will likely fall to late day three and would not even be guaranteed a roster spot. He’s a player I’ll be avoiding in all formats.
4.12
The Pick: Trey Quinn, WR SMU
Quinn feels a lot like Trent Taylor a year ago. Taylor and his college teammate, Carlos Henderson, were both set to enter the league. Although Taylor had been the more productive college player, it was Henderson who got all the attention from dynasty owners and he was also drafted earlier in the NFL Draft. While Henderson missed his entire rookie season, Taylor went on to show some flashes in the 49ers offense. This year, that duo is Courtland Sutton and Quinn. While I wouldn’t predict Quinn will outproduce Sutton and certainly am not hoping for an injury, I do think Quinn can be a productive player and is in the shadow of Sutton.
Possible Pivots:
With the last pick in the draft, there are obviously many ways to go and many ways to view the pick. Some may view it as a throwaway, the last step before a waiver period begins. Personally, I like this advantage, assuming there are still quality options. Along with Quinn, some players who could fall this far are Keke Coutee, Mason Rudolph, and Justin Jackson.
Super-Flex Options: Akrum Wadley, RB Iowa
Wadley had a strong start to his final season for Iowa but tailed off toward the end and then came into the Combine undersized. I am not confident he’ll ever be a factor in the NFL, but then again, we’re talking about the final pick in the draft.
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