A View From the 1.11: Rookie Draft Strategy

Ryan McDowell Posted On April 26, 2018

For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft and we are now less than three weeks away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention, and sometimes even before, we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks, or if they will use them at all.

In this twelve-part series, I’ll use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder, to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, I’ll suggest the player you could be soon adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, I’ll also include a potential pivot option.

Also, I’ll include options based on the updated 2QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, I will examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick. Each trade is based on 12 team PPR, one QB leagues.

We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months, if not years, but difference makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, I’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.

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1.11

The Pick: Royce Freeman, RB Oregon

The valuations of Freeman, the longtime workhorse back for the Oregon Ducks, vary widely. Some, like myself, worry he runs too stiff and lacks the versatility to be a major fantasy factor. Others compare him to Le’Veon Bell. Yes, for real. Freeman will likely be somewhere in the middle, which makes him a solid option in the late first-round. He’s just not a player who will be on many of my teams.

Possible Pivots:

Since I won’t be targeting Freeman at this spot, I have become very familiar with the other potential options and I love the tier of wideouts that could fall to the late first round, including James Washington, Christian Kirk and Equanimeous St. Brown.

Trade Value:

Jimmy Garoppolo for 1.11
1.09 for Ameer Abdullah, 1.11
1.09 for Aaron Jones, 1.11
Paul Richardson, 2.01, 4.12 for 1.11
2.01, 2.02 for Jason Witten, 1.11

Super-Flex Options: Ronald Jones, RB USC

Much like Freeman, Jones is another back I have concerns about and will likely be avoiding, but I do feel like he has more upside and word from those in the know is that Jones will likely be a top 50 NFL Draft pick, which will keep him in the first round despite the criticism he’s gotten in recent weeks.

2.11

The Pick: Anthony Miller, WR Memphis

Miller recently took to Twitter to state his case as the best wide receiver in the class of 2018, and many seemed to agree with him. I mentioned in a previous edition of this series that a half dozen receivers could end up being the best dynasty option, but I wasn’t including Miller. He too is expected to be a top 50 draft selection. That should boost his value and draft position, though there are valid concerns about his age and level of competition at the collegiate level.

Possible Pivots:

If Miller does rise up the board, dynasty players will be forced to find a new target and the available options include most of the quarterbacks and tight end, so options include Lamar Jackson, Josh Rosen and Mike Gesicki.

Trade Value:

Tyler Eifert for Jared Goff, 2.11
Jordan Howard, Trey Burton for Dalvin Cook, 2.11
Julius Thomas, 1.05 for Austin Seferian-Jenkins, 1.11, 2.11
Patrick Mahomes for Emmanuel Sanders, 2.11
Michael Thomas, Elijah McGuire, 3.09 for Jarvis Landry, Derrick Henry, 2.11

Super-Flex Options: Dallas Goedert, TE South Dakota State

As I mentioned, this is a nice spot to target quarterbacks and tight ends in your basic one quarterback leagues, but the big five will be long gone by this spot. Tight ends, including the potential TE1 Goedert, would make nice picks in the late second round.

3.11

The Pick: Antonio Callaway, WR Florida

For a player we’re not sure will even get drafted, Callaway sure has drawn a lot of attention from dynasty players and the draft media. Obviously, that attention is due to the talent of Callaway combined with his numerous off-field issues. Callaway missed the entire 2017 season at Florida and we recently learned that he failed the drug test at the NFL Combine, one of the most egregious errors a prospect can make since everyone knows all players are tested during the week in Indianapolis. There is now a strong chance Callaway goes undrafted or at the very least falls to the late part of day three, making him a risk, even in the late third round of rookie drafts.

Possible Pivots:

Other wideouts, who might lack Callaway’s talent but are much safer options, include DaeSean Hamilton, Tre’Quan Smith and Dante Pettis.

Trade Value:

Emmanuel Sanders for 3.11
3.08, 5.08 for Chris Ivory, 3.11, 5.11
3.02 for Donnel Pumphrey, 3.11
Laquon Treadwell for 3.11, 4.11
Greg Olsen for George Kittle, 3.11

Super-Flex Options: Deon Cain, WR Clemson

If Clemson’s Cain somehow falls to the late third round, even in the super-flex format which pushes talent down the board, he should be an automatic and easy pick. I expect him to be closer to the second round following the weekend’s events.

4.11

The Pick: Marcel Ateman, WR Oklahoma State

Early in the off-season draft process, there were actually some who claimed Ateman was a better NFL prospect than his Oklahoma State teammate James Washington. That nonsense didn’t last long and any buzz surrounding Ateman has faded.

Possible Pivots:

Other picks available late in the draft that I would target instead of Ateman are Keke Coutee, Trey Quinn, and Jaylen Samuels.

Super-Flex Options: Keke Coutee, WR Texas Tech

Coutee is the choice in the super-flex format, pushed down as these owners chase second and third-tier quarterbacks like Kyle Lauletta, Luke Falk and others. He would be a great pick this late.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.