Last Chance Profile: DeVante Parker

I know, it’s draft season and you’re really more interested in rookie profiles than looks at old hands like DeVante Parker. But as I was writing my profiles on Calvin Ridley and Jaylen Samuels, I thought the format could be used to look at players who aren’t necessarily rookies – perhaps it can serve as a useful refresher.

And if anyone needs a refresher, it’s DeVante Parker. Doesn’t he realize he’s supposed to be a WR1 by now? Parker has now coasted through three disappointing seasons in the NFL, and as he enters his fourth we have many more questions than answers. Let’s break him down.

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THE STATS

As we do in our rookie profiles, let’s first take a look back at Parker’s college production:

Statistics from sports-reference.com.

Both in terms of total catches and yardage, these stats are good but not great. The strength here really comes from his touchdown numbers, which are likely the best indicator of Parker’s game. He’s not so much a chunk yardage or big-play wide receiver, but his hallmark was always his ability to highpoint the ball and to perform in the red zone. He is very strong at the catch point, and wins those balls up in the air.

One last note here is that senior season, as although the numbers look so-so he did only play six games that year. He was actually on track for one of those 1,000 yard-plus seasons that we covet, he just didn’t get there due to injury. Imagine doubling those senior season stats to 80+ catches, 1,600+ yards, and 10 TDs. (As a matter of fact, I wonder if that’s what we did – extrapolated a number that he never actually hit.)

So let’s turn that same lens to his pro stats thus far:

Statistics from pro-football-reference.com.

Two key numbers have taken quite a dip with Parker at the pro level – his average yards per catch and his touchdowns. Parker’s games started and targets have gone up each year, but his yardage and touchdown numbers have not gone up at the same rate. Parker doesn’t seem to be winning at the catch point like he did in Louisville.

But are the problems here Parker himself, or the Miami offense? Adam Gase was brought in to bring a little offensive pizzazz to South Beach, but in Parker’s three seasons they’ve languished in the mid 20’s in total offense. The Dolphin quarterback play isn’t doing Parker any favors, either. Ryan Tannehill has shown flashes here and there, but he hasn’t stayed on the field and Matt Moore and Jay Cutler have had to fill in. One thing to note here is that Cutler should be the perfect QB for someone like Parker who can go up and get it, but we really didn’t see it this year.

THE FILM

You weren’t expecting some highlight reel, were you? We’re beyond that now. This is a look at Parker against a very good Florida State team in 2014 that went undefeated during the regular season that year. I think this video does a good job of encapsulating the agony and the ecstasy of DeVante Parker.

On the good side, the very first play shows why we have had such high hopes. He’s big and fast, and we love that in receivers. He also demonstrates around 1:35 in the video his excellent skills at the catch point. Parker is excellent when it comes to going up and getting the ball in the air. At around 3:00, you can also see Parker do an excellent job of tracking a ball over his shoulder. All of the skills illustrated here put stars in the eyes of fantasy owners.

But it’s not all chocolate and roses. I also watched all 96 of Parker’s target from the 2017 season. Both that analysis and the video above exposes some of his flaws.

He doesn’t have true “finishing” speed, as evidenced in the very first play. And while he makes some great catches, he does drop catchable balls as well. He also has a bad habit of knocking balls up in the air in an attempt to get his hands on them, which often leads to interception chances.

His route running is average, and that might be a little nice. His routes are rounded off too often, and you don’t see crisp fakes or suddenness out of breaks. Because of that, he rarely generates any separation on his own. Parker also does not demonstrate any escapability or power. Although he has good speed, he is not elusive, and he doesn’t have tackle-breaking power either. All too often, Parker will only have one man to beat on a crossing pattern and fail to get by him. Once a defender has a hand on him, that’s it.

MEASURABLES

Parker’s measurables show no glaring weaknesses. He grades out to at least “very good” in most areas, with his height and arm length being his biggest advantages. But his chart shows a player who is really good in a lot of areas but not great in any one area. He doesn’t have blazing speed, he doesn’t have power, and though he did not participate in the agility drills at the Combine, I would imagine that he would not do well in those areas – I don’t see a lot of quickness on film.

It’s also interesting to look at comparable players listed on his MockDraftable page:

I remember hearing comparisons between Parker and AJ Green. Perhaps that’s the kind of thing that did Parker a disservice. I’m always a little leery when I hear comparisons between college players and established pros – especially studs like Green. But you’ll also see quite a few guys listed here who didn’t amount to a whole lot like Cordarrelle Patterson and Justin Blackmon. It’s certainly something to keep in mind as we get into our rookie drafts – not everyone pans out.

DYNASTY VALUE

Find more on Parker at his player page.

Parker’s current ADP sits in the mid-60s. It’s at nearly its lowest level in his four-year career. Here’s a look at his ADP going back to his rookie year.

His ADP started in the 30s, and at its highest point, Parker was a top 20 player in early 2016. It took quite a tumble in 2017 however, as owners tired of his lack of production. It did move up a bit recently with Jarvis Landry leaving town. But Parker has had plenty of chances to be the WR1 regardless of who else has been around.

If you want to take a chance, now is likely your best time to buy. If the Dolphins don’t draft a WR1 type, I’d expect his value to climb up a little more. There is danger here, as if they do draft WR heavy this season it will likely have a negative impact on his value.

WRAP-UP

So what does it all mean? Well, I’m calling this a “Last Chance” profile for a reason. I think Parker does still have the potential to breakout, but I think there are more limiting factors to Parker’s potential than we may have thought.

As I noted in the measurables section, Parker is very good in a lot of areas, but he doesn’t have anything I’d consider “elite” from a physical perspective. The trait most admired when he came out was his ability at the catch point. He was amazing with 50/50 balls in college, but he hasn’t had the same level of success in the pros. The defensive backs at the pro level are frankly a lot better at battling for the ball.

He also doesn’t run the kind of routes that can really free him up, so he finds himself battling for a lot more catches in the NFL. When he does catch the ball, he doesn’t have breakaway speed or any kind of elusiveness, so he can’t turn a cross into a home run. Elusiveness is another trait that Parker showed more in college and has not been able to show at the pro level.

One other note I wanted to fit in here is Parker’s attitude. There have been questions about his maturity and work ethic. Ultra-talented players can often get away with that kind of shortcoming, but it’s much more difficult if you aren’t performing on the field. I also noticed during my film review that Parker loves to jaw at the opponent after big grabs. I’m not adverse to the trash-talking that goes on in the league, but when it comes from someone hasn’t done a whole lot, I have to question it.

Lastly, we have to remember that Parker hasn’t had either good or consistent QB play. Tannehill has his own issues, and has also struggled with injury. Tanny doesn’t have the kind of deep ball to take advantage of a guy like Parker. But I also have to say he had a year with Cutler, who is very good at feeding receivers just like Parker, and he didn’t perform then either. Then again, Cutler was brought in late and likely need time to get up to speed.

I think our expectations for Parker may have been overblown. A lot of what we’re doing with rookie players is taking what we know (or really what we think we know) and extrapolating it to NFL production. But the pro game is not the same as the college game. We hear time and again about the overall speed of the game at the pro level, and Parker wouldn’t be the first player to look like a beast at the college level but wash out in the pros. Parker just can’t outmatch NFL talent like he could at times in college.

All that being said, I still think it could happen with Parker, but this has to be his Last Chance.

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