A View From the 1.10: Rookie Draft Strategy

Ryan McDowell

For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft and we are now less than three weeks away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention, and sometimes even before, we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks, or if they will use them at all.

In this twelve-part series, I’ll use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder, to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, I’ll suggest the player you could be soon adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, I’ll also include a potential pivot option.

Also, I’ll include options based on the updated 2QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, I will examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick. Each trade is based on 12 team PPR, one QB leagues.

We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months, if not years, but difference makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, I’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.

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1.10

The Pick: James Washington, WR Oklahoma State

Despite being one of the most productive wideouts not only this past season, but in recent memory, Washington is being undervalued. He belongs in the conversation with Calvin Ridley, Courtland Sutton, and DJ Moore, yet he’s being viewed as the fourth option, at best. While the wideout class as a whole has taken some criticism, this shows the depth of the position.

Possible Pivots:

I don’t expect any of the three previously mentioned receivers to fall this far, but if draft capital and landing spots change things, any of them would be a strong option. Another receiver in this range is Texas A&M dynamo Christian Kirk. Running backs Kerryon Johnson and Royce Freeman are also expected to fill this tier.

Trade Value:

Super-Flex Options: Lamar Jackson, QB Louisville

This was one of the biggest surprises of all pre-draft ADP data, seeing a quarterback with massive fantasy upside like Jackson falling to the end of super-flex rookie drafts. Don’t get your hopes up that this actually happens, unfortunately, as Jackson could be drafted as high as top three overall in this format.

2.10

The Pick: Josh Rosen, QB UCLA

This range of the late second round is where the running backs and receivers really start to run dry and that is the ideal time to target quarterbacks. Rosen is drafted here as the QB3 in the class. Although he does have some questions and is rumored to potentially fall down the board on draft night, Rosen is still a value in the late second round.

Possible Pivots:

Other players to consider in this range are Jackson, Memphis wide receiver Anthony Miller and Penn State tight end Mike Gesicki.

Trade Value:

Super-Flex Options: Kalen Ballage, RB Arizona State

I’ve made it clear in previous articles in this series that I am no fan of Ballage, but he has his share of supporters who have been wooed by metrics and measurables. In the end, Ballage failed to produce at the college level so I’m not sure why that would change on the NFL level.

3.10

The Pick: DaeSean Hamilton, WR Penn State

One of my favorite targets in the third round of rookie drafts this year will be Hamilton, the Penn State receiver who was made to be an NFL slot. Hamilton is an excellent route runner and could get on the field immediately if he lands in the right spot. He’s also projected by many to be a top 50 NFL Draft pick, which would likely boost his rookie draft value from this late third round range.

Possible Pivots:

There are many wideouts in this tier that would be worthy of the 3.10 pick, including Antonio Callaway, Dante Pettis and Tre’Quan Smith.

Trade Value:

Super-Flex Options: Nyheim Hines, RB North Carolina State

As dynasty owners chase the next Alvin Kamara or at least the next Tarik Cohen, most eyes have fallen on Hines, the speedy, pass-catching back from North Carolina State. Hines, a converted receiver and former member of the Wolfpack track team, has a chance to make a quick impact, but expectations should certainly be more in the Cohen range than Kamara.

4.10

The Pick: Mason Rudolph, QB Oklahoma State

There are late rumblings that as teams chase quarterbacks, Rudolph, the prolific passer from Oklahoma State, could sneak into the end of the first round. This would obviously boost his value, but I would remind you to temper your expectations for a player who was viewed as a mid-day two pick not so long ago. Rudolph is likely to sit for a year no matter where he lands.

Possible Pivots:

A pair of wideouts I love late in the draft, though I’m not sure either actually last this long, include Keke Coutee and Trey Quinn.

Super-Flex Options: Jarvion Franklin, RB Western Michigan

Franklin, a productive back from the same school that gave us Corey Davis a year ago, has gotten almost no attention through this process. I was actually surprised to see him drafted in these mocks. He’s likely an undrafted free agent who will do well to make an NFL roster. Look elsewhere even with your late fourth-rounder.

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ryan mcdowell