A View From the 1.09: Rookie Draft Strategy
For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft and we are now less than three weeks away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention, and sometimes even before, we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks, or if they will use them at all.
In this twelve-part series, I’ll use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder, to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, I’ll suggest the player you could be soon adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, I’ll also include a potential pivot option.
Also, I’ll include options based on the updated 2QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, I will examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick. Each trade is based on 12 team PPR, one QB leagues.
We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months, if not years, but difference makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, I’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.
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1.09
The Pick: Calvin Ridley, WR Alabama
There is a good chance Alabama’s Ridley is the first wide receiver drafted on Thursday night, which should lock him into a first round spot, and potentially a high one depending on his landing spot. Ridley has been bashed for his age and thin frame, but he’s drawn just as much praise for his route running, which could be the best in the class.
Possible Pivots:
While Ridley certainly has his fans who will make him the pick at 1.09, I am not one of them. Instead, I would look at another wide receiver at this spot with options including DJ Moore, James Washington or Christian Kirk.
Trade Value:
- Ameer Abdullah, 1.11 for 1.09
- Jerick McKinnon for 1.09
- LeVeon Bell for 1.04, 1.09, 2.01
- Leonard Fournette for Joe Mixon, Patrick Mahomes, 1.09
- Case Keenum, Bilal Powell, 1.02 for Carson Wentz, Adrian Peterson, 1.09
Super-Flex Options: Courtland Sutton, WR SMU
Surprisingly, Sutton comes in ahead of a pair of the “big five” quarterbacks in this class in the 2QB format. While Sutton is certainly a player I will target in my own rookie drafts, I don’t think he carries enough value to be taken at this spot in a super-flex league.
2.09
The Pick: Lamar Jackson, QB Louisville
Drafted here as the QB2 off the board, this is another spot our two sets of data vary greatly. In our super-flex mock drafts, Jackson was the fourth signal caller drafted. This actually makes a lot of sense. In a typical one quarterback league, dynasty owners can gamble on their quarterback because even if he flops, it is easy to acquire another. This results in Baker Mayfield and Jackson as the top two drafted in that data set.
On the other hand, in a 2QB format, every quarterback on a roster will likely need to be used as a starter, so those owners tend to play it safer. Mayfield is still a desired asset, but it is Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold drafted highly, while Jackson falls to the late first round.
Possible Pivots:
If high-level production from the quarterback position is not your thing, you could consider Anthony Miller, Mike Gesicki or even another “safer” quarterback, Josh Rosen at this spot instead.
Trade Value:
- Duke Johnson, Jordy Nelson, 2019 first for Devonta Freeman, 2.09
- Robert Woods, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, 2.03 for 1.09, 2.09
- Patrick Mahomes for Jacquizz Rodgers, 2.07, 2.09
- 2.03 for 2.09, 2020 third, 2020 fourth
- Chris Thompson for Derek Carr, 2.09
Super-Flex Options: Michael Gallup, WR Colorado State
Gallup heads up the next tier of wideouts and while I am intrigued by him overall, I don’t love the value he currently offers in any format. Since I view him as the top of a tier, I’d prefer to trade down and potentially acquire a pair of players from that same group, rather than taking one shot on Gallup.
3.09
The Pick: Josh Allen, QB Wyoming
The hate is real for Allen, who seemingly no one wants on their roster, other than potentially John Dorsey. While there are reasons for that, he will likely be the hot potato in fantasy drafts, the one that no one wants to get stuck with. This will eventually result in him being a nice value for someone willing to use a pick on him. It is fair to have concerns, but by the late portion of the third-round, there are no NFL first-rounders who are essentially guaranteed of seeing starts still available.
Possible Pivots:
If you just can’t pull the trigger on Allen, and you might not want to if you grabbed Jackson in the previous round, you have other choices. Some pivot plays include Josh Adams, DaeSean Hamilton and Nyheim Hines.
Trade Value:
- Kirk Cousins, Jerick McKinnon for Carson Wentz, 3.09
- Julian Edelman, 4.05 for 3.09, 3.10
- C.J. Anderson, Rishard Matthews for Lamar Miller, 3.06, 3.09
- Ameer Abdullah for 3.05, 3.09
- Giovani Bernard, 2.12, 3.04 for Eric Ebron, 3.08, 3.09
Super-Flex Options: DaeSean Hamilton, WR Penn State
As I mentioned, Hamilton is an option for picks in this range of either format. He’s a solid slot player with some room to improve and I am interested to see how he performs away from starts like Saquon Barkley and Mike Gesicki.
4.09
The Pick: Keke Coutee, WR Texas Tech
Coutee, the speedy wideout who caught passes from Patrick Mahomes in previous seasons, has actually been drawing a lot of buzz recently as a prime late-round target. The bad news is this means he might not be available at this point in the draft. Coutee is almost certain to be a day three player in the NFL Draft and his landing spot will determine if he can rise to the third-round range or be a realistic option here at the 4.09.
Possible Pivots:
If Coutee does climb up the board, you’ll be forced to look for alternatives. Some possibilities would be Jaylen Samuels, Trey Quinn or Simmie Cobbs.
Super-Flex Options: Jordan Lasley, WR UCLA
As mentioned in earlier editions, there is little separation amongst these late-round picks. Lasley is a solid target in the final rounds of rookie drafts, though I do often take a deep shot on a late-round rookie quarterback in this spot instead.
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