A View From the 1.07: Rookie Draft Strategy

Ryan McDowell Posted On April 23, 2018

For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft and we are now less than three weeks away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention, and sometimes even before, we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks, or if they will use them at all.

In this twelve-part series, I’ll use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder, to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, I’ll suggest the player you could be soon adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, I’ll also include a potential pivot option.

Also, I’ll include options based on the updated 2QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, I will examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick. Each trade is based on 12 team PPR, one QB leagues.

We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months, if not years, but difference makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, I’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.

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1.07

The Pick: Ronald Jones, RB USC

Former USC running back Jones is a player that almost everyone I talk to seems to have major concerns about, yet he keeps ending up in the first round of rookie mocks and drafts. Jones has many flashy plays in his college career, but there is concern he lacks the speed and pass-catching skills to fill that role in the NFL, while also being a subpar runner between the tackles. I would look elsewhere with my mid-first rounder.

Possible Pivots:

While the top five running backs are almost certainly going to be gone by this point, there should be at least one first-round receiver remaining, so one of DJ Moore or Calvin Ridley could be considered instead of Jones.

Trade Value:

Michael Thomas, Zach Ertz for Mitchell Trubisky, Martavis Bryant, 1.07
Jack Doyle, 1.03 for Dion Lewis, Chris Hogan, Jared Cook, 1.07
Cameron Meredith, Laquon Treadwell, 1.05 for Pierre Garcon, Curtis Samuel, 1.07, 2.07
JuJu Smith-Schuster, 2.07 for 1.07, 1.10
Jerick McKinnon for 1.07

Super-Flex Options: Rashaad Penny, RB San Diego State

While the top five backs should be long gone by this pick in most drafts, expect to see at least one sitting there in super-flex leagues. That one, based on our current rookie ADP, is Penny from San Diego State. While I really like Penny and hope to add him to some of my teams, I am surprised he is being drafted over some of the available quarterbacks in this format.

2.07

The Pick: Baker Mayfield, QB Oklahoma

The exact positioning of the top five quarterbacks is clearly still to be determined, but not only has reigning Heisman Trophy winner Mayfield been rapidly moving up the NFL Draft board, he’s rising in dynasty ranks as well. Based on our latest ADP, this 2.07 spot makes him the first quarterback drafted. Dynasty owners are obviously excited about his playmaking ability and upside, which would be cemented by an early draft position, which is expected this Thursday.

Possible Pivots:

Considering Mayfield was the first signal-caller drafted, potential pivots would include most other top quarterbacks. Personally, I prefer Lamar Jackson. Other options include Miami back Mark Walton and likely any of the tight ends available.

Trade Value:

Patrick Mahomes for Jacquizz Rodgers, 2.07, 2.09
2.01 for Jeremy Hill, 2.07
Dontrelle Inman, 1.12 for George Kittle, 2.07
Jimmy Graham for 2.07, 3.07
Joe Mixon for Zach Ertz, 2.07

Super-Flex Options: Christian Kirk, WR Texas A&M

At Texas A&M, all Kirk did was dominate from day one, especially making an impact on special teams. He’s drawn comparisons to Stefon Diggs and he’s pretty firmly in the top 12 rookies. That changes a bit when factoring in the quarterbacks, but Kirk feels like a steal outside of the top 18 overall rookies in this format.

3.07

The Pick: Nyheim Hines, RB North Carolina State

Hines, the diminutive back from North Carolina State, is one I was generally not aware of until really digging into the rookie class over the past few months. While I am intrigued by his ability and potential role, I could actually see him being overdrafted in rookie drafts as dynasty owners chase the next Tarik Cohen. Taking him at 3.07 would not be an example of this, but if he sneaks into the top 25 players, I’ll likely look for other options.

Possible Pivots:

If Hines does climb and is not on the board here, players to target instead would be Josh Adams of Notre Dame, Deon Cain from Clemson or Penn State receiver DaeSean Hamilton.

Trade Value:

Bilal Powell, 2019 third for James Conner, 3.07
Jimmy Graham for 2.07, 3.07
Javorius Allen, 4.02, 4.05 for 3.07
1.01 for Allen Robinson, Jerick McKinnon, 1.07, 3.07
John Brown for 3.07

Super-Flex Options: Bo Scarbrough, RB Alabama

Despite the near ideal profile of a power back, Scarbrough rarely was able to separate himself during his time at Alabama. Factor in his injury history and limited role in the passing game, and Scarbrough is locked in as a third rounder in most leagues. With that said, when he falls this far in the super-flex format, I’d be willing to take a chance and see if he can prove most of us wrong.

4.07

The Pick: Justin Jackson, RB Northwestern

Jackson, the longtime starter from Northwestern, has been one of my favorite sleepers throughout the draft season. I was somewhat concerned when his Combine measurements were revealed, and he was smaller than expected. He will have to overcome that, along with the heavy workload he endured during his college career. He could become a nice change of pace type back and is worth the chance in the middle of the fourth round.

Possible Pivots:

Other players coming off the board in this range you might prefer are Jordan Lasley, Hayden Hurst, Jaylen Samuels, and Keke Coutee.

Super-Flex Options: Simmie Cobbs, WR Indiana

Cobbs is a fine player to take a chance on in the fourth round, but in this case, there is little value difference between the super-flex format and your typical one quarterback leagues.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.