The second tier of dynasty rookie receivers often ends up overlooked. Not likely drafted in the first round during the NFL draft, these players fly under the radar despite still having fairly high draft capital and intriguing college profiles. Michael Gallup looks to be one of the 2018 entries into this category, and a promising one at that. Let’s take a look at his profile to see if he warrants his position as a mid second round dynasty rookie.
Statistics from sports-reference.com.
Gallup spent two years at Butler Community College due to poor test scores before transferring to Colorado State for his age-20 season. His numbers were quite impressive, especially from a market share perspective:
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Image courtesy of Peter Howard (@pahowdy).
His market share of receiving yards fits right in with other successful fantasy wide receivers. The big unknown, though, is what he would have done if he were on Colorado State at ages 18 or 19. While we shouldn’t penalize him for not being with the team until age 20, we also can’t assume he would have been just as good either.
I set out to get a better idea of what we can expect from a WR of this kind of unique market share profile. Using this market share data sheet compiled by Peter Howard, I added Gallup to a list of all rookie WRs from 2014 to 2017 whose college production didn’t begin until age 20 or later and included at least one season of at least 30% market share of receiving yards, sorted by year:
Robby Anderson and Cooper Kupp have had fantasy success, while Keelan Cole, Dede Westbrook, and Geronimo Allison have shown promise. Gallup outranks all four in terms of expected NFL draft position (second or third round) and torches the entire list in first-year market share. Only Cole has Gallup beat on average market share for his college career. Despite the lack of age 18 and 19 seasons for Gallup, this is a promising list of market share comparisons.
If Gallup possesses one elite trait, it’s his complete route tree. He excels at both short and long-distance routes. Other than that, Gallup is a jack of all trades on tape. He frequently gains separation despite not being exceptionally fast and has the hands to pull down tough passes. A willingness to dish out hits makes him dangerous after the catch. None of his pass catching skills are elite, but there aren’t any major weaknesses.
In some cases, one has to worry about team fit for receivers with certain flaws. For Gallup, an all-around skill set makes any team a fine landing spot from a scheme perspective. Being a team’s WR1 is certainly within the range of outcomes. Without an elite skillset, though, the other end of that spectrum includes Gallup struggling to find his footing the NFL.
Gallup checks in with what’s honestly a pretty boring Combine profile. I’m sure you’ll find this graph when you look up “average” in the Combine dictionary. He’s not the smallest or largest receiver, he’s not the fastest or slowest… You get the point. Furthermore, most expectations pre-Combine were exactly met. No more, no less.
It’s been demonstrated previously that the Combine doesn’t matter much for receivers. I don’t think an ordinary Combine such as Gallup’s tells us anything either way about his value as a prospect.
As of April, Gallup’s dynasty ADP is 149 (WR65) with a rookie ADP of 16 (WR7.) The two other rookie receivers with similar rookie ADP are Christian Kirk and Equanimeous St. Brown. This tier may or may not change depending on landing spots and draft position in the NFL draft.
Michael Gallup’s NFL draft projection falls in the second or third round. He possesses an impressive (but incomplete) production profile and passes the eye test as well. While we don’t yet know what kind of early opportunity exists for Gallup, his skill set lends itself well to any landing spot. Gallup makes a fairly safe rookie pick for this reason, as it’s unlikely for him to see an extreme drop in ADP based on fit and situation after the draft. With a rookie ADP of 2.04 in 12 team leagues, Gallup currently represents a value in rookie drafts.