2018 Wide Receiver Combine Analysis: Part Four
Over the last month, I’ve put together my annual look at the upside of this year’s wide receiver class in order to help evaluate potential busts as well as those who could be late draft lottery tickets if everything goes their way. If you haven’t been keeping track of the series, please take some time to go back and check out part one where I detail the method, the statistics, and the rationale behind it. Without it, you’re going to be pretty lost on what the numbers mean.
As I was going through virtually every receiver in the draft class who participated in the Combine, I was skipping over the top receivers in the draft class. This was because each and every one of them deserved a little bit more discussion than I could give them with all of the other players. Now it is time to get back to each of the top receivers. They are in order of their score by the metric, which loosely translates into their fantasy ceiling in the NFL. The number in parenthesis is their score with height removed.
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DJ Moore: 3.93 (5.39)
My Positional Ranking: First by a little bit.
I had Moore in my top tier and as one of the top receivers in the draft class prior to the Combine and my analysis of it. After spending some time with the numbers, he is now my number one receiver. It is possible that a terrible landing spot for Moore and a great landing spot for Courtland Sutton could switch the two, but I definitely have the pair in a class by themselves.
Moore has acceptable height at six feet tall, but he is thickly built for a receiver. Normally, when you have someone who is bigger than normal, it slows them down a bit. That isn’t the case at all for Moore. His 4.42 second time in the 40-yard dash is definitely enough for the NFL. What was even better were his jumps and his agility drills. While none of them are at the elite level, they were all in the upper 10-20 percent of NFL receivers. That means outside of height, which is just average, Moore is physically in the upper 10-20 percent of receivers in the NFL. That is definitely someone who can push for WR1 status in fantasy leagues if the non-quantifiable characteristics match up.
From a production standpoint, his 2017 season was his best with 80 receptions for 1,033 yards and eight touchdowns. While that isn’t quite on the level of some of the other receivers in this class, you need to consider the situation he was involved in. Four different quarterbacks started games in 2017, and they only averaged 161 passing yards per game. Moore accounted for more than half of his team’s receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. It was a pretty terrible offense and defenses knew he was the only weapon, yet he still shined.
The good news just keeps on coming with Moore. On the field, he is very quick, both when running his routes and especially with the ball in his hands. There were many times in his career where he turned a bubble screen or a five-yard pass into a huge play, just because of his ability to move with the ball. His tape and Combine definitely seem to agree he is an explosive athlete. The only weakness I see in his game is that he is still a little raw at the position. Due to the issues they had at quarterback, I don’t think the playbook ever became too developed. As a result, his exposure to a full route tree was limited. He will need to work on learning and perfecting those routes at the next level. The good news is that he has the work ethic to do it.
Ultimately, I think he turns into the top target on his team and someone who can become a back-end fantasy WR1. I don’t expect him to be elite, but he will be the next best thing if he lands on a team with a good system and a quarterback.
Courtland Sutton: 2.73 (2.26)
My Positional Ranking: Second. Slightly behind first, but large gap between him and third.
If you are someone who likes bigger receivers, Sutton is your man in this year’s draft class. While he isn’t monstrous, his 6’3” frame is more than large enough. He has a good build for his size and isn’t afraid to get physical with defenders. In fact, sometimes he plays a little too much to contact, trying to keep defenders close so he can use his body to box them out instead of just separating from them.
His Combine results actually surprised me a little bit. The slightly slower 40-yard dash time (4.54 seconds) didn’t surprise me, because that fits with what you see during his games. He doesn’t blow by defenders and what he does get free he is often caught from behind by faster defenders. The nice jumps were expected as well because he definitely shows off his leaping ability on the field. The surprising part was in his agility drills. He showed very good acceleration and elite change of direction ability. This isn’t something you see on the field. He has a nice first step, but he doesn’t have super fast crisp and clean routes like one would suspect given his tests. Maybe this is a sign that with some good coaching and effort, he’ll be able to develop into an elite route runner.
If you watch him play, you see a big receiver play like a big receiver. He actually reminds me a little bit of Dez Bryant with the physicality. The lack of polish on his routes also reminds me a little bit of Dez. Now, I think Dez was an overall better player than Sutton, but Sutton could be close to that level if he is willing to put in the time and lands with a staff who can motivate him to bring his best each and every day. IF that happens, he could push for WR1 numbers. If not, he should still be a solid WR2.
*DJ Chark: 0.40 (-0.06)
My Positional Ranking: Fourth, but in the middle of a tier.
Chark’s score is a little bit incomplete because he didn’t participate in the agility drills at the combine. However, what he did do left a few position impression. At 6’3”, he is much taller than most people realize. That just makes his 4.34 second time in the forty yard dash that much more impressive. The sub 4.4 guys are normally under six feet tall. The only downside physically is that he is quite lean. At just under 200 pounds, he is going to be downright manhandled by NFL corners if he doesn’t add some strength to his frame.
If you watch him play, you see that he knows he is fast, and he knows how to use that speed. Most of his game revolves around blowing past defenders and getting open. He has some nice double moves and jukes to fool corners, but his game is a bit limited due to his over-reliance on that one aspect of his game. He will need to develop a complete route tree as well as refine the rest of his game if he hopes to be more than just the deep threat for a team. The good news is I believe he is someone who wants to be the top dog for a team. This is evident by the fact that he changed numbers this year to take on Leonard Fournette’s number seven. This hopefully means he will put in the time and effort to become the top target for a team. If he can bulk up and improve his routes, he could push into WR2 territory on a good offense, but that is a lot of “ifs”.
*Equanimeous St. Brown: -0.44 (-2.30)
My Positional Ranking: Seventh. He is in my third tier with several others.
Tied for the honor of being the tallest wide receiver in this Combine draft class, Equanimeous St. Brown checks in at 6’5” and 214 pounds. That’s two inches taller than Sutton, but also four pounds lighter. He was also faster than Sutton in the 40-yard dash, which makes him a very intriguing size/speed guy. However, he is going to have to rely on intrigue a little bit because there really isn’t as much of a body of work to look at as I would like, both in terms of the combine (where he only did the 40) and on the field.
In college, he never had a season that reached 60 receptions, 1,000 yards, or ten touchdowns. Terrible quarterback play is partially to blame, but I don’t think it is fair to put everything on the quarterback. In my opinion, St. Brown is very much a player who is all about potential and not what he is right now. For a big receiver, he seems to get pushed around and out positioned way too much. He needs to bulk up a little bit and add some strength to his game, which is ironic given his father was a two-time Mr. Universe. He also has a long way to go when it comes to his route running and knowledge of how the position needs to be played. Worst of all might be the fact he seems to lack that competitive fire you want in a player.
There are some things to like about him aside from his height. When you watch him move, he does have the look of a natural athlete. That is rare in someone of his size. It would have been nice to see the agility numbers because I think they would have been pretty good. With a little coaching on his routes, they could be a thing of beauty. He also has experience playing multiple roles at the receiver position, which is only going to help him in the NFL. He also seemed to have an extra level he saved for the bigger games. The question is if he can play up to that level all the time. If he can, he will be a lot of fun to watch at the next level and push for WR2 production.
James Washington: -2.38 (-1.12)
My Positional Ranking: Third, but a long way from second.
Going from St. Brown to Washington is almost as big of a shift as you can make. This is true in terms of experience, production, size, build, and just about everything else. For example, Washington is six inches shorter (he is 5’11”), but the same weight. Part of that is that Washington is built like a running back. The 2017 Biletnikoff Award winner, Washington was one of the most productive receivers in the entire NCAA with 74 receptions for 1,549 yards and 13 touchdowns his last year at Oklahoma State. He was a huge big-play threat with a nation leading 20.9 yards per reception. If you value production and big-play ability, Washington is your guy! I currently have him as my third receiver in the class, but in the interest of full exposure, I’ll confess that my three-six are all very close.
As far as the Combine goes, I was a little surprised that he didn’t test better. Given what I saw from him on the field, I was expecting someone who was a better athlete because he really dominated on the field. Maybe it was a bad day for him or maybe he is just a player who plays better in pads than he does in a tank top and shorts.
On the field, Washington was one of the best playmakers in all of college football. While he is far from a complete receiver, he is very good at defeating press coverage and then getting down the field. He did equally well when teams played him with a large cushion as he had a way of sneaking up on cornerbacks. He does a great job tracking the ball when it is in the air as well.
On the other end of the spectrum, he is limited as I mentioned before. He has little experience with most of the routes NFL receivers run thanks to coming from a spread offense and the role he played. His footwork is clumsy and needs a lot of work if he is going to be able to run a more complex route tree. He is also a very linear player who might not have the ability to be a great route runner, which some of his drills at the Combine would suggest. Overall, he might be capped as the deep threat on a team with a talented, but not fast number one receiver.
Christian Kirk: -5.70 (-2.32)
My Positional Ranking: Sixth, very close to fifth.
Let me start by saying that I think Kirk is probably a more complete receiver than Washington and Chark. However, I have him ranked lower than both of them because I think his role in the NFL will have limited fantasy upside. He is someone who will be more valuable to his NFL team than to fantasy teams due to his ability in the return game and his chain moving skills in the passing game.
Keep in mind that Kirk’s score by this metric is a little misleading. He is the type of receiver, 5’10” and 200 pounds with short arms, which the metric is a bit too harsh on overall. That is where the non-height score comes into play. He is thickly built for his height, but overall he is either at the baseline (40-yard dash) or below the baseline (pretty much everything else). This is why he is still slightly negative. While that doesn’t mean he is doomed, it does signal that his upside might be a bit more capped to a fantasy WR3.
When I watch some of his games, I found myself wishing I could take what he does and put it into a slightly bigger, faster frame. I really like his toughness, competitiveness, hands, and effort. However, he just isn’t that gifted when it comes to physical size or ability. His catch radius seems small, even for someone his size. He also seems to lack the burst required to create a lot of separation. He has nice breaks out of his routes at times, but if the ball is thrown right then, the defenders just seem to catch back up. All in all, I think he can be a valuable NFL player as a slot receiver, but his fantasy production will be rather inconsistent.
Calvin Ridley: -9.05 (-7.58)
My positional Ranking: Fifth, but in the middle of a tier.
As I mentioned before, Ridley is the ultimate metric versus tape debate in this year’s draft class. In fact, it is hard to remember a player who had this big of a gap between what some of the numbers tell us and the production/play we saw on a weekly basis in college. For that reason, he is going to be one of the most debated players leading up the 2018 season.
If you never put on a single Alabama game, you are going to look at his metrics from the Combine and say that there is absolutely no way he turns into anything at the NFL level. While his 4.43 second time in the 40-yard dash is solid, his 6’0” and 189-pound frame is very slim (1 inch taller and 25 pounds lighter than Washington). His jumps were beyond poor, and his agility drills were a mixed bag. His ability to change speeds (shuttle run) was quite a bit below the norm, but his change of direction ability (three-cone drill) was better than most. All together that means we have an undersized receiver with limited explosiveness, good straight line speed, and solid change of direction ability.
Where you get a whole different story is when you put on his game film. While the production numbers aren’t going to wow you like some of the other receivers in the draft class, you need to consider the offense he is coming out of. As we all know, Alabama is a run first, run second, and run third kind of team. This is going to limit production in the passing game. On the plus side, the pro style means Ridley has been exposed to a complete NFL route tree, and he excelled in doing it. It doesn’t take long to recognize Ridley’s strengths on the field. He is one of the best route runners in all of college, and he creates a lot of separation with those routes. Once he gets that little bit of separation, he uses that 4.43 speed to turn it into a huge window even Alabama quarterbacks can’t miss! When you mix in natural, strong hands you have the makings of someone who could be special.
On the negative side, the major flaws in Ridley’s game on the field can all be boiled down to one word: contact. If defenders are able to get physical with Ridley at the line or there is the threat of a big hit, such as a route over the middle, Ridley isn’t the same player. Part of this might be his slim frame, but the rest just might be some of his personality. He doesn’t seem to enjoy the physical part of football. He struggles in contested situations (in part because of his poor leaping ability) and can be easily out-bodied by stronger corners, which is a concern at the next level where all defenders are bigger and stronger.
Overall, Ridley is in my second tier of receivers right now. I struggle to meld what my brain tells me about someone who tests like he did with what my eyes see when I watch an Alabama game. My brain tells me to stay away, but my eyes tell me he is one of the best in this class. Ultimately, I think he has a chance to be the exception to the numbers and a solid WR2 in the NFL. There is definitely some risk here though.
Here are my current rankings for this group of receivers. There is a large gap between the first tier and second tier. Within the tiers, there is almost no gap between the players. Exact rankings within tiers will be decided by the draft.
Tier 1
DJ Moore
Courtland Sutton
Tier 2
James Washington
DJ Chark
Calvin Ridley
Christian Kirk
Tier 3
Equanimeous St. Brown
Several other receivers including Dante Pettis, DaeSean Hamilton, and Michael Gallup
That’s it for this series for this year. I’ll be back next year to do it again! Good luck with your drafting and trading.
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