2018 Wide Receiver Combine Analysis: Part Three
If you glance outside for any of the states in the northern half of the country it definitely looks like it is football season. Unfortunately, it is April which means we have a bit of a wait. However, the NFL Draft is a much-needed oasis that isn’t too far away. To help us prepare, it is time for my annual analysis of the wide receiver draft class. The metric isn’t perfect, but if it is used the correct way, I think it can be a great tool.
Speaking of the metric, before I go any further, you can see that this is part three of a series. If you haven’t read part one yet, stop right now and click the link. Otherwise, you’re going to be completely lost on what is going on. In fact, even if you already read part one you might want to go back for a quick refresher. Then, head over to part two.
In part one, I outlined the general process I’m using, my goals, my disclaimers and took a look back at recent draft classes to help give you an example of what this metric tells you. I’m going to trust that you actually looked at all of that and get right down to business with the current draft class.
I’m going to talk a bit about most of the meaningful prospects and what they bring to the table, both in terms of their physical traits and their other abilities. For the top receivers, I’m going to push them to a special article because they deserve a little extra attention in my eyes.
Keep in mind that a score of a zero is the average for the best wide receivers in the NFL, so there is absolutely nothing wrong with being around zero or even a little bit negative. These receivers were covered in part two of the series. Where I start getting concerned is when a player gets below a -2 and especially when they are below a -4.
This is where this part of the series is focusing; those players below -2. The score in the parenthesis is the score without height and arm length factored in for those who feel height is overrated. On with the show!
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Slightly Limited Upside (Scores between -4 and -2)
James Washington: -2.38 (-1.12)
Jordan Lasley: -2.60 (-2.47)
Jaleel Scott: -2.64 (-4.91)
*Korey Robertson: -2.73 (-2.75)
Jester Weah: -2.81 (-1.79)
*Antonio Callaway: -2.87 (-0.86)
Quadree Henderson: -3.00 (-0.70)
Byron Pringle: -3.22 (-3.52)
Trey Quinn: -3.45 (-0.82)
Steven Mitchell: -3.69 (-2.26)
*Dante Pettis: -3.76 (-2.82)
Marcell Ateman: -3.88 (-5.20)
Cedrick Wilson: -3.92 (-3.22)
In this group, we are talking about receivers who are a bit below the top performing receivers in the NFL in terms of physical ability. They likely fit into one of two categories. Either their upside is going to be limited to a best case of a WR2 but more likely WR3, or they are the smaller receivers this metric is a little harsher on. If it is the latter, then their score without height should be several points higher.
Washington, Callaway, Henderson, and Quinn are perfect examples. They are right around -1 without height factors in the equation, meaning they still have higher end upside. If the converse is true, where the second number (non-height number) is significantly lower, then they are big targets with very limited athletic ability. Think Kelvin Benjamin as an example. Their prospects are a little less promising in the NFL. As for the rest, they are likely to be capped a bit by their lack of athletic ability. That doesn’t mean they aren’t fantasy worthy, just that they have a little lower ceiling than some others.
Overall, this is a much larger group than we normally see at this point in the metric. This is due to the very limited number of players in the -2 and above range, as I discussed in part two of the series. Once we get to the -2 to -4 range, I’m primarily interested in players who show an increase when going from their height score to their non-height score. Players who go the other way, like Scott and Ateman, have a very poor track record of success at this point in the scale. If it had been a +4 to a +2, that is completely different. But going from -3 to -5 is a really bad thing. Washington will be in my top receivers portion, but let’s look at some of the other receivers in this grouping.
Lasley is an interesting player. Many are talking about him as a gifted athlete with a lot of baggage. However, what the numbers show is that he really isn’t that gifted of an athlete. Yes, he is good enough to be on an NFL team; however, all of the other issues will likely make teams think twice. Between multiple suspensions and run-ins with law enforcement during college and his lack of effort at times on the field, teams might look the other way. He had a huge number of drops, and he has very poor fundamentals, which signals a lack of time and effort put into perfecting his craft. Personally, I’m going to chalk up his production to having an elite quarterback throwing him the ball and spend my later round picks on someone else.
It’s out of the frying pan and into the fire when it comes to red flags as we go from Lasley to Callaway. Callaway skipped the agility drills at the combine, which is disappointing because I think he could have put up some great numbers. He did post a 4.41-second 40 and solid but not great jumps. On the field, he just might be one of the top three receivers in this draft class. With the ball in his hands, he rivals the best in this class. His first step off the line creates instant separation, and his instincts are phenomenal.
The issues all come off the field with his character, work ethic, morality, and questions about if football is actually important to him. It is quite the laundry list of concerns; especially when you factor in his off the field issues include sexual assault, drugs, and credit card fraud. It will be interesting to see where he goes on draft day, but he is someone I will strongly consider as a high upside pick for my fantasy team.
Pettis is a much different prospect from the previous few I’ve talked about. You really need to throw his score out, because due to an ankle injury, the only thing he did at the Combine was weigh in. If he had done all of the drills, I think he very possibly could have been a positive score. He is a great prospect who will make instant friends of both his coaches and his quarterback with his character, work ethic, and the way he plays the game. He has great hands and instincts on the field, and he will become an instant security blanket and chain-mover for his offense.
What he is lacking is that killer instinct. Sometimes moments seem to be a little bit too big for him, and he sometimes will shrink in the face of tough competition, especially if they start getting physical with him. If he can add a little muscle, he could turn into a great complementary receiver in the NFL. While that might limit his upside, when you start three-five receivers in most fantasy leagues he is definitely worth a look. I have him just inside my top ten receivers right now, and he could move higher.
As for the rest of the players, they are either fringe prospects or the big bodied players with limited athleticism. The latter group includes Ateman and Scott. I know a lot of people like Ateman, but I just don’t see him having the athletic ability to make a difference in the NFL. Maybe he adds 25 pounds and transitions to a tight end to have a bigger impact, but I don’t see him being consistent from the receiver position. If I had to take a flier, I would go after guys who went the other way on the metric. The ones with the higher non-height score like Henderson or Quinn.
Larger Concerns (Scores between -6 and -4)
Deon Cain: -4.26 (-4.82)
Michael Gallup: -4.36 (-3.23)
*Davon Grayson: -4.48 (-3.24)
Richie James: -4.56 (-1.91)
*Chris Lacy: -4.70 (-4.22)
Keke Coutee: -5.04 (-4.03)
*Auden Tate: -5.33 (-7.82)
Robert Foster: -5.49 (-5.32)
Christian Kirk: -5.70 (-2.32)
Simmie Cobbs: -5.79 (-5.94)
Javon Wims: -5.85 (-5.58)
This is the point when I start to get really concerned. Almost no one in this range or lower, who actually completed all of the Combine drills, ends up turning into a WR2 or better. The only exceptions are those players who are very undersized. Think about guys like T.Y. Hilton. Anyone else who wasn’t on the extreme when it comes to physical size doesn’t seem to pan out. Kirk is the best example in this group of a player who could be the size exception since his score without height factored in is almost three and a half points higher. The rest of them could be facing an uphill climb to relevance. I’ll touch on Kirk in the top receivers article, but let’s look at a few other players in this group as well.
Cain is a player who seems to be coming off the board in the second round of rookie drafts right now. A size/speed player at 6’2” and a 4.43 second forty, he will likely be a day two draft pick in the NFL draft. He has nice instincts on the field, and he showed he can challenge defenders deep.
However, there are several red flags as well. He struggles with drops, and he doesn’t create as much separation as you would like to see on the short and intermediate routes. His Combine might have helped explain this. He has exceptionally small hands for someone of his size, which could play a part in the drops. He also posted lower than expected numbers in the jumps and agility drills. Perhaps his lack of separation is a function of not being as agile as we thought. He might be more of a straight line player. Add in the fact that his production decreased as his role and age increased, and I dropped him in my rankings a little bit.
Gallup is a player many people have in their top ten, if not top seven. His Combine drills didn’t show any glaring weaknesses, he was just slightly below the baseline group in almost all of the drills. This wasn’t quite what I expected out of him, because he seems to be a better-than-average athlete on the field. Maybe it was just a bad day, or he is simply someone who plays faster on the field than he ran. Speaking of the field, Gallup has promise but is a little bit raw at the position. He has great run after the catch ability, but he needs to work on his routes and positional feel. If he can accomplish this, he has the talent to be a solid complementary receiver in the NFL.
Richie James is worth a little bit of time in this grouping, largely because of the significant gap between his two numbers. An increase of over 2.5 points when we take the height elements out means this metric doesn’t accurately measure his upside and potential. Very undersized at 5’9” and 178 pounds, James played for small school Middle Tennessee State. James graduates as the record holder in every major receiving category for his school, and he was one of the most productive receivers in all of the NCAA when healthy over the last few years. That health piece has been key for him. Partially due to his smaller size and the competitiveness he plays with, his body takes a beating.
When on the field, he showed the ability to be a true weapon, playing receiver, running back, and even quarterback. He is a tremendous athlete and dangerous with the ball in his hands; however, he relied too much on that athleticism in college and is behind from a technical standpoint. His fundamentals are a little sloppy and his routes are very raw. At the next level, he could be nothing more than a gimmick or he could turn into more if he lands on the right team. He is worth watching in the draft as a potential very late round add.
The final player in this group I’m going to talk about is Tate. There are a lot of people who are very high on the Florida State prospect, largely because we fall in love with size. At 6’5” and 228 pounds with 33.75-inch arms, he is the biggest receiver in this draft class. His Combine drills were incomplete as he just did the 40-yard dash and the jumps, but what he did wasn’t good at all. Remember all the talk about Kelvin Benjamin’s Combine numbers and how disappointed people were at the time? Well, Tate is a fair amount lighter and performed worse across the board.
I was down on Benjamin when he came out (and was roasted for it at times), and I’m even lower on Tate. He doesn’t have the athletic ability to play receiver full time in the NFL. With that said, he does have good body control, body position, and does make contested catches. This could make him an asset in the red zone. I think he would be better off adding some weight and being a red zone tight end, but there isn’t a ton of fantasy value there.
As for the rest of the players on the list (remember Kirk is coming later), there really isn’t much to say. They are likely to be late round or undrafted guys with very little if any fantasy relevance. Maybe they make a team and become a fifth receiver and a special teams player, but history shows their chances of doing anything significant are limited to about once every five years.
Other Notable Players (Below -6)
Calvin Ridley: -9.05 (-7.58)
Finally, we get to the elephant in the room for the 2018 wide receiver class, Mr. Ridley. Every year we have a player who is the poster boy for the metrics versus film debate, and Ridley is more extreme than most. According to the numbers he posted at the Combine, if he reaches the WR2 ranks, he would be the lowest scoring player by this metric in as far back as I have looked (2000 draft class). While that doesn’t mean it can’t happen, it does cast some serious doubt on his upside in the NFL. Then you have the contrast of what you see on film. I’ll get more into Ridley in the fourth part, but it is an interesting debate.
That’s it for the field. The fourth and final part of the series will have a breakdown of the top seven receivers in this class, complete with a more detailed look at their scores and how I view them moving forward. Be sure to check back for that. Thanks for reading!
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
