2018 Rookie Profile: Deontay Burnett, WR USC

Peter Howard

Deontay Burnett technically started his college career at the age of 17 because of where his birthdate falls compared to the start of the football season. There are so few players who do this that there aren’t really enough examples of successful wide receivers in the NFL to compare it to. So instead my default is to be just a little bit more optimistic about what he did.

Overall he produced just over 2% more receptions than he did yards for USC. Combined with his slight frame (6’0”, 170lbs) it’s fair to say he was not playing on the outside in college. He also didn’t take part in the NFL Combine so his athletic measurements have been slow in coming from his pro day results. In short, Burnett has some positive signs on his profile but also remains somewhat of a mystery.

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The Stats

screen shot 2018 04 15 at 11.52.32

Statistics from sports-reference.com.

Burnett’s 161 yards in 2015 amounted to about 3% of USC’s receiving yards. That wouldn’t be unimportant normally – plenty of successful players don’t do much in their first year. But since Burnett was an extremely young 18-year-old in 2015, I’ll consider that 3% market share a bonus. In 2016, he caught a combined 19% of USC’s touchdowns and yards, just under the threshold for a breakout season, still technically at age 18. He did finally breakout in 2017 with 30% of his team’s touchdowns and yards. He enters the NFL at the age of 20, which as DLF’s own Michael Zingone (@FFzinger) will explain in an upcoming article, is a positive sign for any prospect’s potential.

Even from a market share perspective, Burnett’s production is only marginally above the average of successful wide receivers. Despite giving him a gold star for being exceptionally young, and coming close breaking out at 18, his overall profile is interesting but not “bang on the table” interesting.

With the number of wide receivers in every class, including this one, with “slot guy” hanging over their head, it’s hard to see a reason to favor any of them outside of minor preferences. But if you’re looking for a wild card factor, draft status being equal, I don’t mind favoring Burnett because of his age marks.

The Film

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0baFjcgdkwY

On the field, Burnett seems to understand the flow of the game well. He understands the defensive in front of him and can work to take advantage of players with quick cuts and an ability to change directing quickly. We can see this at work on tape as he uses impressive footwork and short area acceleration to break free, followed up by solid hands and toughness after the catch.

It’s also clear he is working more short passes than long. This might be a reason to forgive his per target efficiency.

According to target data from Football Study Hall, Burnett caught fewer yards per target than everyone else on his team by -0.4% (which, believe it or not, is enough to say it was a thing for this stat). His catch rate of 65% was low but compared to players with 120+ targets last year, he ranks fourth – just under Keke Coutee, Greg Jennings, and Trey Quinn.

Measurables

Skinny. Deontay bulked up recently, measuring at 186 lbs and not the 170 lbs as expected. But he still profiles as skinny at only 6’0″ tall. His comparables do not throw up a lot of great examples of successful NFL receivers but do offer a glimpse at his potential with the likes of Dede Westbrook showing up as a 91% physical match and Rashad Greene at 88.9%. Greene never really fired at the NFL level but he has had moments. Westbrook, on the other hand, still remains a mid-priced sleeper based on his 339 receiving yards and a touchdown in 2017.

As a younger than average prospect, I suspect he can probably handle the extra weight a little better than most. Unfortunately, his pro day numbers don’t bear that out very well as he is reported to have run a 4.70 40-yard dash. That’s a concerning number, but given his attempt to change his body time and the fact the 40 time doesn’t line up neatly with on-field performance in agility or on-field speed, it’s not a death nail either. Then again the NFL values speed, so it’s worth considering.

Dynasty Value

Deontay Burnett is currently the 40th-ranked rookie overall in DLF’s consensus ranking. He is the WR22 and has an ADP of 229.17 (a very late flyer). This is behind Allen Hurns (ADP 229 – who is probably due to move up after the Cowboys released Dez Bryant) and above Chris Conley (ADP 229.33).

He’s a fourth-round pick in rookie drafts. Given the concerns over how the NFL will view him based on his measurables, I think he’s a risky one right now as well.

Conclusion

I’d need to see something from the NFL to really be interested in taking Deontay Burnett even in the fourth round. Whether it’s a roster spot with some potential weakness or a role he could fill without a starter. I want to see that the NFL is not going to penalize his size or pro day athleticism. Most fantasy points can be explained by opportunity and volume. Unfortunately the whispers in Burnett’s profile – that could suggest he has potential at the next level – could easily be silenced if he doesn’t find at least some path to relevance from the draft.

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peter howard
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