It’s a bird, it’s a plane, no wait, it’s another Wes Welker archetype! To begin at the end, Trey Quinn has some positive signs on his resumé from his final year. But he was also inefficient in some concerning areas for a player who will have to walk a very narrow path to become fantasy relevant.
In every rookie draft, there are always a few “slot guys to watch out for”. The analysis has become so common that we may have lost sight of the fact that becoming a fantasy-relevant receiver is a truly rare thing. Those who get there through this archetype are rarer still. The role has become more popular in the NFL, and I’m not suggesting they are not valuable. Only that getting there by “looking like” – i.e low to no draft capital, agile, with “good routes” on tape, mostly working in the middle of the field in college – is arguably a harder needle to thread than most. Instead, the category of potential prospects for it has become so wide, any player anyone likes but doesn’t think will happen gets stuffed inside – especially if they are under six foot tall
Trey Quinn is such a player from this class. The difficulty in projecting if he is in fact, the next Welker, Cole Beasley, Jarvis Landry, Jamison Crowder or Albert Wilson is that there is no direct path these players take to opportunity. Certainly not from the ledge of a rookie profile.
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The Stats
Statistics from sports-reference.com.
The raw stats aren’t going to do it on this one. But, to sum it up Trey Quinn, after a prolific high school career – where he actually ranked number one in production in the country – went to the SEC where he barely got on the field for LSU. (A lot of acronyms in this story.) In 2016, he decided to make a change and moved to the more open offense of SMU. He received a very large share of targets and opportunity in 2017, which may have helped to reduce the opportunity and production of Courtland Sutton.
While his final year was positive for his production even at 21 years old, it has problems.
I tend to ignore “narratives” about why a player couldn’t get on the field. I just think its hubris or outright insulting to other prospects to think we can objectively judge which player’s “story” takes the blame off them and which doesn’t. However his final year, with opportunity at SMU, proved Quinn has some skill. This lends credence to the idea it was LSU and not Quinn that kept his early years so unproductive. However, he was also operating with an age and experience advantage in 2017. What’s more, on a per target basis (target data from Football Study Hall), he was last or dead last in production for receivers with a similar opportunity (100-plus targets and those with a 30% or higher target share).
This also shows up in his reception-to-yards difference in his share of SMU’s production. He received a 40% reception share at SMU in 2017 but only produced 32% of the team’s yards. While aDot data could explain some of this (if we had it for college players), it’s worth noting that he was also inefficient compared to other similar successful archetypes in college.
Cole Beasley had produced 8.7 yards per target, 1.2 yards more than the team average, in his final year at SMU. That rating was 23.2% more than the team average on 115 targets. Quinn managed only 8 yards per target, which was 0.2 yards more than the team average, a 2.3% difference.
Beasley actually hit in the NFL for a moment. But he’s now largely back to being a “roster clogger” with an ADP of 210 as WR84, after once being at 116 in ADP in January of last year. Remember, it’s really, really narrow needle to thread.
The Film
On film, one of the first things that show up in Quinn’s final year is his hands. Matching his elite 73% catch rate, Quinn looks like a guarantee when targeted. He does seem to work as a low aDot slot receiver for large periods, running tight routes with the quick twitch to create windows in narrow spaces. But we can also see him make big yards after the catch from those targets. There are also a good number of downfield targets on his highlight reel.
It’s no surprise that some sites still have Quin listed as over six foot tall. He looks big on the field and plays tough contact with plenty of strength. He also seems to understand his routes well and can set up defensive backs with well-practiced footwork.
The Measurables
If hand size related to NFL success, Quinn would be a shoe-in. But for now, we can say his catch rate in 2017 may have benefitted from his 91st percentile hands. His best comparison in the NFL is a 78% (poor) match to Stefon Diggs. But Diggs is both more explosive and agile. Quinn measured in the 23rd and 28th percentile for the Broad and Vertical jump respectively. His 52nd-percentile 3-cone time suggests average agility and his 4.55 40-time, while adequate, does not leave a lot to hang a hat on for a 5’11” who works a lot in the middle of the field.
On the positive side, his strength is on display in his 72nd-percentile bench press. That’s a trait he will need to succeed if he does earn time playing in the middle of the field without much agility.
Dynasty value
Player information is available on their DLF player page.
Right now, Trey Quinn is ranked as the 23rd rookie wide receiver and has a startup ADP of 236.7, just this side of being drafted with a standard roster. He ranks behind Javorius Allen (236.33) and ahead of Tyler Boyd (236.83). In short, he’s a flyer waiting for anyone to take him in the later rounds of a startup or a rookie draft.
As a potential NFL player, he’s probably undervalued right now. But given the success rate, and quantity of prospects in this range with the same potential, Quinn is probably fairly valued. I wouldn’t reach for him in either type of draft but would be happy to find him available at the right time.
Conclusion
In college, Trey Quinn was definitely playing the role of a Julian Edelman – a “slot guy” with explosive potential, not through burst and agility, but a solid and developed all-around game. He has great and crisp enough routes. I think he could well have done a lot more if he’d been on the field at LSU.
However, some marked inefficiencies in his production make me wary of being more optimistic about his chances in the NFL. There is little to make him stand out from the likes of Tyler Boyd, also a mediocre athlete, who had a lot more productive in college and already has second-round draft capital.
The shine of rookie profiles can often make us overlook the fact rookie receivers, especially skill based players with less raw physical traits, take time. I think it’s a great idea to hunt for values in the fourth round with a player like Quinn. But before the fourth round I’d look for a higher upside, with a greater hit % history, than a player with a 21st-year breakout age which in and of itself has an overall hit rate of 6.7% since 2001 and 0% hit rate outside of the second round of the NFL draft.
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UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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I got him in round 23.5 of a 12 team startup. I guess we will see.
