2018 Rookie Profile: Lamar Jackson, QB Louisville

Draft season is home to endless scorching hot magma takes. No prospects prove more polarizing than quarterbacks, and Lamar Jackson has received the heat from numerous pundits. He has been labeled a wide receiver, been told he has no shot to be an NFL quarterback, and yet through it all, he stands here several weeks away from the NFL Draft with a good shot to hear his name called on day one. Ignore much of the noise around Jackson and create your own thoughts on him. He is very much deserving of being one of the top quarterbacks selected this year.

The Stats

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Statistics from sports-reference.com

A quick glance at the numbers shows a common theme throughout Jackson’s career: improvement. While the yards per attempt and rating dropped in his junior season, his completion percentage took significant jumps with each passing year. This is notable given one of the big knocks on Jackson has been accuracy. Despite the improvement, it is still fair to list accuracy as a major question mark for Jackson. He has not to-date ever been considered a precision passer, and the numbers back it up.

Statistics from sports-reference.com

You have to include rushing numbers when discussing the Louisville product, as they’re such a massive element of his game. Jackson could be the league’s best rushing quarterback from the jump. He’s dynamic with the ball in his hands and has outstanding speed and agility. Rushing production can be a major boon to a quarterback from a fantasy standpoint, and can buoy numbers even if the passing efficiency is not present. This is the major reason he is such an appealing fantasy asset.

The Film

Adding the caveat this is a highlight tape, there are obvious strengths to Jackson’s game. His arm talent is undeniable. He has a lightning-quick release and his deep ball can be a work of art. He seldom panics in the face of danger and looks to complete his reads prior to bolting out of the pocket, a notable trait for somebody with his running skills.

Any viewing of Jackson is going to feature a lot of running. Bobby Petrino utilized his quarterback’s greatest strength via zone reads, quarterback draws, and essentially any running play you could draw up in the dirt. Louisville eviscerated defenses with their dual-threat quarterback and Jackson toyed with defenders who thought they may have stumbled upon a valid pursuit angle. More than just an elite athlete who ran around haphazardly, Jackson showed patience and poise in the open field, navigating through open space with the grace of a ballerina.

The highlight film will not feature it, though his tape will show a few warts in his game. He can rely solely on arm talent to make throws; he often ignores his footwork and throws from a sloppy base. This can result in erratic or underthrown passes. The issue is exacerbated given how slight his lower-body is, as he relies on his natural arm strength for power as opposed to utilizing his entire body. This can be problematic, especially when under duress in the pocket.

The NFL is all about molding traits which translate. Jackson’s flaws are apparent yet correctable. He has a complete toolkit which portends success with an open-minded coaching staff.

Measurables

We do not have a full spider chart via Mock Draftable yet, though what we have is expected. Jackson has average height and the main concern given his proclivity to use his legs is his weight. He has a sinewy frame which could have trouble holding up if he is carrying the football 100-plus times each season. There is, of course, ample time to put on good weight and Jackson just turned 21 in January. There is a reason to believe he’s not yet filled out as an athlete, and even at 216 pounds, he’s not woefully undersized. It is merely a minor concern.

Even without full athletic testing via the Combine, he has little to prove as far as how good of an athlete he is. He has elite long speed and excellent agility in small spaces. A full picture of athletic testing would place him in the elite category at the position.

Dynasty Value

In March ADP, Jackson is the 25th player off the board and third quarterback overall. Given this is based on starting only one quarterback, it is plenty reasonable as it is tough to separate yourself from the crowd in such a format. I personally prefer Jackson as the top quarterback, given his ability to pick up chunk plays with his legs. Rushing production can move pedestrian quarterbacks into fringe starters and fringe starters into superstars. I expect him to be elite in this area.

Conclusion

Lamar Jackson is certainly not for everyone. His style will be controversial, and he is not going to be a fit for coaches who are hellbent on running their offense in a traditional manner. You’ll need to play to his strengths and accept some inconsistencies with his big-play potential, especially early in his career. However, if he hits, it is going to be in a massive way, and few possess his upside as both a real life and fantasy quarterback. I do not see his bust potential as any greater than your standard quarterback, and it is why I am rather bullish on Jackson in comparison to the general consensus.

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