2018 Rookie Profile: Josh Allen, QB Wyoming

Bradley Ylitalo Posted On April 10, 2018

Most people have already made up their minds. They either love Josh Allen more than anything or are wondering why he’s even worth talking about. However you feel, I encourage you to keep an open mind as we go through his rookie profile. He’s perhaps the most polarizing prospect in the 2018 class. Without further ado, let’s break down Josh Allen.

College Career

screen shot 2018 04 07 at 15.27.01

Statistics from sports-reference.com.

If you’ve heard anything about Josh Allen, chances are you know about his scarily bad stats. As perhaps the biggest Allen believer at DLF, even I acknowledge that his numbers are concerning. Let’s take it year by year.

After playing a year at junior college Reedley in California, Allen had one division one offer, Wyoming. In his first year as a Cowboy, Allen appeared in only two games after suffering a broken collarbone. It was his RS Sophomore year in which he really started to garner NFL interest. Allen’s 3,200 yards and 8.6 yards per attempt were more than enough to have most analysts giving him high expectations for his RS Junior season.

But after he lost running back, wide receiver, tight end, and center to the NFL, Allen failed to replicate his 2016 numbers. He looked to turn a corner after the regular season however as his combined bowl game and Senior Bowl stats were pretty impressive as he threw for five touchdowns, and zero interceptions while completing 62.5 percent of his passes.

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Game Tape

Before I begin to rave about his mechanics, mobility, and arm strength, let’s talk about his already well-known struggles. Starting with accuracy, you don’t need to look too far into his film to notice he can have some occasional problems. Even when he was surrounded by solid talent (2016), he barely managed to reach a 56% completion percentage. Secondly, some of his decisions aren’t exactly what you want to see from a potential top-five pick. Just watch his game tape vs Iowa and it’ll be pretty apparent that Allen still has some things he needs to work on in terms of taking care of the ball.

That’s enough negative talk. Let’s look at his immense upside. Allen further proved himself as an athlete with perhaps the best combine of any quarterback. We know he can use his legs, but his pure arm talent is his true calling card. This kid has some of the best throwing mechanics (not footwork) you’ll find in a prospect. His release is quick almost exactly how we as evaluators want it. He consistently finishes with great arm angle. Lastly, as I’m sure you’ve all heard, this kid has an absolute cannon. It’s the strongest arm I’ve ever had the pleasure of scouting. In summary, his tape is up and down. For me and many others, his potential upside far outweighs the concerns.

Allen under center going to drop back, step up in the pocket, and throw one of those darts that has me so excited about his potential! #nfldraft #DraftTwitter pic.twitter.com/nU89uDoX8v

— Bradley Ylitalo (@NFL_drafthub) March 13, 2018

Measurables

Allen, as expected, absolutely crushed it at the combine. His measurements (via Mock Draftable) and testing were basically off the charts. In everything except the 20-yard shuttle, Allen is well above average. Size wise, you don’t get much closer to prototype. Whether we like it or not, size matters and Allen has it in spades. This is one more element that only serves to enhance his potential.

Dynasty Value

Allen is ranked 32nd in DLF’s latest ADP, and 40th in DLF’s rookie rankings. So in 12-team leagues, you’re looking at a late third to early fourth round pick. I’ve been saying this for weeks now, and I’ll say it again. Josh Allen is the most underrated prospect in the dynasty community. He’s starting to get a little bit more love as people are finally accepting that he’s most likely going to be a top-five pick, but his value is still just a bit too low in my eyes. I’m targeting him as much as I can in the early to mid third round.

Conclusion

Josh Allen is not as safe as Josh Rosen or Sam Darnold. However, upside-wise, he might just stand alone. A lot of owners won’t dare take a chance on a guy with a floor as low as Allen’s, but I encourage them to take a risk on the Cowboy. There’s a high chance he ends up being of little or no value, yet a very real chance he becomes a quarterback who can help lead a championship team.

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