2018 Rookie Profile: Baker Mayfield, QB Oklahoma

Nick Canzanese Posted On April 9, 2018

We may be witnessing a paradigm shift in the NFL. After a series of NFL draft trade-up disasters, Jared Goff and Carson Wentz started a trend of quarterbacks justifying an expensive trade-up. The trend continued through 2016 into this off-season. The New York Jets paid a king’s ransom to move into the top three and the Buffalo Bills put themselves into position to move farther up as well. With so many teams looking to come out of the draft with one of the top-tier quarterbacks, how does Baker Mayfield stack up against the competition? Should dynasty owners be treating him as one of the top-tier quarterback prospects? Let’s take a look.

The Stats

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Statistics from sports-reference.com.

Mayfield’s 2016 and 2017 seasons were downright dominant. In each of those seasons, he finished first in yards per attempt, adjusted yards per attempt, completion percentage and passer rating among all quarterbacks. You couldn’t ask for a better statistical performance at the college level.

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If that wasn’t enough, his air yard metrics paint an even better picture. PACR, developed by Josh Hermsmeyer, tells us how efficient a quarterback is with their passes (passing yards divided by air yards). Quarterbacks who possess a high average depth of target like Mayfield did (11.2 in his final season) should have a lower PACR. And yet, with the caveat that data is unavailable for some top prospects, his final season PACR of 1.05 is likely among the highest in the class and definitely the most impressive considering his average depth of target. Basically, he was incredibly efficient despite throwing deep passes. While college PACR has not been shown to correlate to NFL PACR, it’s still remarkable that Mayfield was so far ahead of the rest of the class.

The Film

Most of Mayfield’s film line up directly with his statistics. Any successful quarterback with a high average depth of target better have arm strength, and Mayfield’s is on full display here. Furthermore, he’s comfortable throwing passes at any depth, as his accuracy persists no matter the type of throw. Lastly, being as efficient as he was as high depths we aren’t surprised to see excellent anticipation on throws.

Also evident is Mayfield’s mobility in the pocket, allowing him to use his creativity to extend plays. He also excels at making passes while scrambling. While no one would call Mayfield a running quarterback, his mobility produced modest rushing totals (311 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns in his final season.)

Mayfield essentially passed exclusively out of the shotgun. Some see this as an issue, but it’s worth noting that 80% of pass plays were run under shotgun last season. I don’t think his lack of experience playing under center should be much of an issue at the NFL level, especially if his coach tailors his offense accordingly.

Measurables

The major red flag most people point to when analyzing Mayfield is his height. Some are afraid to take a risk on a short quarterback. I think this is a misnomer. Height is simply one of many tools a quarterback can use to get an edge. A short quarterback can succeed in the NFL is they can make up for it in other ways. In particular, two characteristics that Mayfield possesses: Mobility and anticipation, as discussed previously.

Dynasty Value

As of March, Mayfield’s ADP sits at 177 (QB21) in startups and 18 (QB1) in rookie drafts. Mayfield’s fellow top-tier quarterback prospects (Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen and Lamar Jackson) are so close to him in ADP that there’s a good chance they could come off the board is almost any order in upcoming rookie drafts. Landing spots and NFL draft position could create some separation in these players.

Conclusion

While Darnold, Rosen, and Jackson are all quality prospects, Baker Mayfield is certainly deserving of being in the top tier of quarterback prospects in this class. In fact, he’s at the top of that tier for me. It’s one of those rare instances where metrics and film line up perfectly. Mayfield absolutely crushed his competition from a statistical standpoint, and the film lines up with all of his statistical feats.

It’s difficult to project which top-tier quarterback prospect will land with which NFL team. As of late March, there has been little to no substantial information leaked. In dynasty leagues, this means that the top of this quarterback class is essentially a “pick your preference” situation. This could remain true even after the NFL draft. My current preference is Baker Mayfield, and barring a catastrophic landing spot will likely remain that way even after the NFL draft.

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