IDP Rookie Mock Draft: Top 16 Rookie IDPs
Pro Football Focus just posted their fourth mock draft of the year and it covered the top three rounds. It’s a free article and you can read it here. It’s worth noting that it’s based on where PFF would take players and not where they think they will actually be taken.
Around this time of year, we can easily get caught up in our preseason rankings of players and start to believe that’s their real value. In reality, the spot they end up in the real NFL draft is massively important and will change our rankings hugely. So I wanted to use this as an opportunity to get used to seeing our rankings flex and change.
I’m taking this PFF draft as gospel and I’m going to pick my top 16 IDPs based on their landing spots here.
1.) Bradley Chubb, DE
Taken at 1.10 by the Oakland Raiders
I’ve spoken many times about how I value edge rushers more than linebackers in IDP because of the relative scarcity. Any time a DE is taken as a top ten pick I’m interested. Chubb is my top pass rusher in this class and I love him landing opposite an established star in Khalil Mack.
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2.) Harold Landry, DE
Taken at 1.9 by the San Francisco 49ers
Another top ten edge rusher. The eagle-eyed amongst you will note that Landry went before Chubb in PFF’s mock but the situation is slightly less favourable in my opinion. I wouldn’t fault anyone for switching these top two picks over though.
3.) Roquan Smith, LB
Taken at 1.11 by the Miami Dolphins.
The Dolphins taking a linebacker this high would be a disaster for either Kiko Alonso or Raekwon McMillan. Hopefully the latter because two linebackers called Raekwon and Roquan would be no fun at all.
Either way, I love Roquan Smith and he’d instantly be the best range and coverage LB in Miami.
4.) Tremaine Edmunds, LB
Taken at 1.28 by the Pittsburgh Steelers.
This would be a slightly odd fit for me given that he’d basically be replacing Ryan Shazier. Edmunds is a really talented player but he’s a run-stopper first at this stage and would need to develop fast to fit into Shazier’s role. He could do it though and that size/speed combination is tantalising.
5.) Leighton Vander Esch, LB
Taken at 1.27 by the New Orleans Saints.
The Saints LBs last year were the least efficient in the NFL which scares me. But a high investment into a long-term solution would be exciting and even as a rookie I’d expect Vander Esch to offer a whole lot more than A.J. Klein or Craig Robertson.
6.) Hercules Mata’afa, DE
Taken at 2.55 by the Carolina Panthers.
This is a pick more about projection than reality given his usage in college versus what his role will have to be in the pros. But the Panthers are in sore need of edge help across from Mario Addison and Mata’afa would get plenty of chances next to an ageing Julius Peppers.
7.) Marcus Davenport, DE
Taken at 1.25 by the Tennessee Titans.
All you hear about Davenport is how “raw” he is but I see a layer who’s fat, strong and mean and knows how to disrupt plays. If he ends up being a first round player then I know at least one other team feels the same way about him. It might not happen in 2018 but come 2019 I’d expect Davenport to be a useful contributor.
8.) Arden Key, DE
Taken at 2.36 by the Indianapolis Colts.
This would be a strange fit given Key’s low weight at the combine. He seems like a much more natural OLB. But if this happened then I’d love the opportunity across the formation from Jabaal Sheard. An early second round pick would also give him a solid chance to prove his ability.
9.) Josey Jewell, LB
Taken at 2.57 by the Tennessee Titans.
I’m not a Jewell fan at all. He lacks range and speed for me. But the Titans are in need at the position given they really only have Jayon Brown (a passing-down specialist) and Wesley Woodyard (pretty old) in the building. Investing a second-round pick would show me the Titans were looking to move on from one of those two players sooner rather than later,
10.) Maurice Hurst, DT
Taken at 1.4 by the Cleveland Browns.
This feels early for a tackle but Hurst is a potential difference-maker. The elite interior IDPs are all either high-volume or pass rushers and Hurst is very much the latter. If he went as high as fourth overall I’d feel very confident in him becoming a top inside pass rusher.
11.) Derwin James, S
Taken at 1.5 by the Denver Broncos.
It feels wrong leaving a player selected fifth overall this late but I see fairly low value in safeties in most leagues. Added to that is the fact I’d expect James to be used all over the field rather than as a box safety. You don’t invest a top five selection in a safety who can make big hits. In this situation, James would be almost certainly overdrafted by someone in your league who saw the name and draft collateral. Just like Jamal Adams was last season.
12.) Skai Moore, LB
Taken at 3.70 by the San Francisco 49ers.
Moore has gone under the radar a bit so far but he’s a classic three-down LB and going in the early third round would be a huge vote of confidence. The 49ers have already paid Brock Coyle like a starter but with Reuben Foster likely to be suspended there’s room for two 2018 contributors.
13.) Rashaan Evans, LB
Taken at 2.43 by the New England Patriots.
I love Evans. He’s a really good LB and an excellent blitzer. An early second round spot would appear to suggest fantasy gold. My worry would be that in the Patriots’ scheme he’d be the successor to Dont’a Hightower rather than a contender for the job in the middle. And we all know Hightower is a poor IDP because of how much he’s asked to rush the passer. He’d be fool’s gold for me.
14.) Ronnie Harrison, S
Taken at 2.48 by the Los Angeles Chargers.
The first safety I’d consider in this mock would be Harrison. I’m a big Jahleel Addae fan but taking Harrison here would show me that the Chargers aren’t entirely convinced he’s the long term answer. Addae is entirely cuttable after 2018 and strong safety under Gus Bradley is one of the more attractive IDP spots around.
15.) Jerome Baker, LB
Taken at 3.96 by the Buffalo Bills.
This selection would break many hearts as it would be a direct replacement for Matt Milano who is so many IDP owners’ darling this off-season. Playing the two of them together (especially in Buffalo) would be an invitation for teams to run on them so I’d assume Baker would simply be an upgrade at coverage LB.
16.) Shaquem Griffen, LB
Taken at 3.76 by the Green Bay Packers.
In Green Bay, I’d assume Griffen to be a pure edge player. How well he could do that at his weight is a real concern but he’d have the chance to be Clay Matthews’ successor. I’d expect virtually nothing in 2018 but the potential of a bulked up Griffen in 2019 would be enticing in big-play leagues.
Just missed out
Vita Vea, DT
1.19 to the Cowboys.
Vea is going to be a heap of fun in the NFL. But he’s not going to put up many individual statistics.
Taven Bryan, DT
2.37 to the Colts.
He’s a great fit but just misses out due to the replaceability of tackles and the presence of Henry Anderson in Indy.
Duke Ejoifor, OLB
2.69 to the Giants.
I love the fit in NFL terms but his likely designation as an OLB pushes him down my board. There’s only room for one OLB and I’ll take the Shaq Griffen story any day.
Sam Hubbard, DE
2.73 to the Dolphins.
The Dolphins already have a deep roster of ends. I like Hubbard but his workman-like style could easily just be lost in the pack.
Quin Blanding, S
2.80 to the Texans,
I avoid Texans safeties wherever possible. They just don’t compile stats due to the flexible scheme and dominant line.
There we go. Obviously, this is an entirely fictional concept but I do think it’s useful to get into the habit of assessing landing spots as well as just pure talent.
Thanks for reading.
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