2018 Rookie Profile: Nick Chubb, RB Georgia

Bruce Matson Posted On April 8, 2018

2018 is the year of the running back. This year’s draft is chock-full of superior running back talent. NFL teams will have a lot of variety to choose from with plenty of feature backs, pass-catching specialists and short yardage backs at their disposal. With this many running backs entering the league, there’s definitely going to be a major shakeup on a few rosters come draft day.

We have experienced an influx of running back talent in the last few years and now we are about to inherit another infusion of high caliber players in the backfield. Nick Chubb should be on everyone’s radar this year. Just because he’s not the consensus first overall pick in rookie drafts, doesn’t mean he won’t be the most productive back in this draft class. He holds his own when compared to some of the top backs in the NFL.

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

THE STATS

screen shot 2018 04 05 at 10.35.51

Statistics from sports-reference.com.

Chubb was a five-star recruit out of high school and was instantly one of the most talented running backs in college football once he stepped on the field for Georgia. In 2014, during his freshman season, Todd Gurley, the team’s star running back, had his season prematurely end due to a knee injury. Once given the opportunity to be the team’s starting running back, Chubb steered the ship for the Bulldogs, finishing the season with eight straight games with over 100 yards rushing. As a starter, he averaged 7.04 yards per carry.

His success carried over to his sophomore season where he rushed for five straight 100-yard games before injuring his knee in week six against Tennessee. The week before the injury, Chubb posted 146 yards and one touchdown against Alabama. He was on pace to be one of the greatest players to ever come out of Georgia.

After an entire off-season of rehabbing, Chubb hit the field for his junior season. He started off the year with a bang by rushing for 222 yards and two touchdowns against North Carolina in week one. After a season with many ups and downs, he managed to rush for 1,130 yards and eight touchdowns. From watching him it was obvious that his knee was hampering his play. If anything, it was good to see him on the field being productive after a devastating injury.

Many expected him to come out for the NFL Draft after his junior season, but he decided to go against the grain and play his senior season. Chubb improved upon his previous year’s marks by rushing for 1,345 yards and 15 touchdowns. While sharing touches out of the backfield with Sony Michel and D’Andre Swift, he still produced six games with over 100 yards rushing.

If he didn’t get injured and continued his production from his freshman year and the beginning of his sophomore season, then he would have been one of the most decorated dynasty prospects to ever hit rookie drafts. Instead, we are left wondering what could have been.

FILM

What I like to see out of a running back is the ability to see the hole and instantly get through it without hesitation. Decisiveness is a big deal to me and in this game against Louisville during his freshman season, Chubb exemplifies those traits. He had one of the best games of his career by rushing for 266 yards and two touchdowns.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sirOYt3WxJ0

This game was before his catastrophic knee injury and there’s a chance he may never revert to his old form. However, this is a solid depiction of his upside, because you can’t get much better than what he was during the early portions of his collegiate career. He had the speed, power, and the burst at that time to compete at the NFL level. If he plays like he did during his freshman season, then he’s going to be easily one of the top running backs in the NFL.

One of the reasons why he might dominate the competition on Sundays is his explosiveness in the open field. Once he hits the second level of the defense he’s a threat to break open a long run. Defenses have to be fully aware of where he’s at on the field at all times and make sure to take proper pursuit angles when he gets the ball.

It wouldn’t be fair if I only showed one game from his freshman season. Between now and then, there has been a lot of change. The knee injury he suffered during his sophomore season slowed down his progress and made him look like a totally different player compared to his earlier seasons. Below is the game against Notre Dame during his senior season where he carried the ball 13 times for 63 yards.

Chubb was not as decisive while running the football during his junior and senior seasons. He didn’t show as much burst. However, he did demonstrate that he still has enough talent to compete in the NFL. Sometimes, after a bad injury, it takes extra time for a player to return to their old form. Devastating injuries can also have a mental impact on how a player plays. I imagine the farther we are removed from the injury, the sooner we are going to see the “old Chubb”.

MEASURABLES

Athletic metrics are a big deal. They provide a snapshot of what a player can do on the football field. Historical data can provide trends and help predict how a player may perform.

Below is Nick Chubb’s NFL Scouting Combine data via Mockdraftable:

Chubb was one of the top performers at the combine. At 227-pounds, he ran a 4.52 40-yard dash. He also provided a 38.5-inch vertical jump which ranks in the 89th percentile amongst running back prospects. He demonstrated that he has the size-adjusted speed and burst to be a tough-customer for opposing defenses.

Athletically, he compares to David Johnson, Saquon Barkley, Chris Henry and Rudi Johnson. All are bigger running backs who can move. Chubb is pushing 230-pounds and can still move like a cat. He has the size to run through the opposing opposition and the quicks to run around them. He’s going to be a dangerous chess piece for an NFL team.

DYNASTY VALUE

The DLF team currently has him ranked fourth amongst all rookie running backs behind Barkley, Derrius Guice, and Sony Michel. He also has a 3.40 Rookie ADP. I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes as high as the consensus second pick in rookie drafts. He could also drop a few spots if he lands in a bad situation. Either way, he’s going to be a rock-solid investment for your dynasty team. His value should hold steady during the first few years of his NFL career. The only thing that could dramatically drop his stock is if he suffers another major knee injury, but that’s outside of his control. His price point is spot on and I’m definitely not afraid to make the investment for Chubb.

Conclusion

Outside of the preexisting conditions, Chubb’s rookie profile has everything you want for a running back. Metrically, he checks all the boxes with superior production, size, and athleticism. The tape shows that he’s more than capable of transitioning his game to the NFL. He should only get better going forward.

I wouldn’t be against drafting him with the second overall pick in rookie drafts. He’s definitely worth kicking the tires on. If this wasn’t the year of Saquon Barkley, he might be in the contention for the first overall pick. I’m buying if I get the opportunity.

[/am4show]

Author
Recent Posts

Bruce Matson

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

I'm a financial counselor for a hospital in South Central Ohio. I graduated from Muskingum University with a bachelor's in business while minoring in Economics and Accounting. I won my first fantasy football title with Jake Plummer as my quarterback.