It’s time to celebrate! We are in NFL Draft month! With just a few short weeks until we learn the landing spots of all key incoming rookies, the puzzle that is a players’ dynasty value is nearing completion. We will soon add draft capital and team situation to the pieces we’ve already placed, including college production, metrics and Combine and Pro Day performance, along with other information.
As dynasty owners continue to understand the value of the incoming rookies, mock drafts show how that value is changing, even during the off-season. I recently completed several 2QB rookie mock drafts and have some brand new average draft position (ADP) data to share. I’ll also include the ADP change since our previous data collection benchmark in late February.
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Round One
| Player | Position | February 2QB ADP | April 2QB ADP | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | RB | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Derrius Guice | RB | 2.3 | 2.7 | -0.4 |
| Josh Rosen | QB | 3.0 | 4.8 | -1.8 |
| Baker Mayfield | QB | 6.2 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Nick Chubb | RB | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.8 |
| Sony Michel | RB | 5.5 | 6.3 | -0.8 |
| Rashaad Penny | RB | 14.0 | 7.2 | 6.8 |
| Sam Darnold | QB | 8.7 | 7.7 | 1 |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | 10.0 | 8.0 | 2 |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | 9.3 | 9.7 | -0.4 |
| Ronald Jones | RB | 7.2 | 9.7 | -2.5 |
| DJ Moore | WR | 15.0 | 12.2 | 2.8 |
As expected, the top two running backs, Saquon Barkley and Derrius Guice, remain at the top of our ADP data, but things are wide open beginning with the 1.03 selection. I expect the top fantasy quarterback, which looks to be Josh Rosen, to be the favorite selection at the three spot, but with the parity among the top five signal-callers, the second tier of running backs and the top tier of receivers, the rest of the first round players have similar value.
Once again, four of the top five quarterbacks are drafted in the first round, though we see a gap between the top three of Rosen, Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield down to the end of the first round and Lamar Jackson. Landing spots and draft capital spent on these players will be crucial in determining their ultimate rookie draft value.
Only two wide receivers are drafted in the first round and I absolutely see it playing out that way in super-flex and 2QB rookie drafts. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see some drafts with no receivers selected in the first round at all.
There seem to be some growing concerns about the upside of running back Ronald Jones, especially in comparison to others in the same tier, including Rashaad Penny, Nick Chubb, and Sony Michel. That is evident here as Jones falls nearly three spots and barely hangs onto a spot among the top 12 players.
Round Two
| Player | Position | February 2QB ADP | April 2QB ADP | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | QB | 15.0 | 12.8 | 2.2 |
| James Washington | WR | 10.2 | 14.8 | -4.6 |
| Calvin Ridley | WR | 10.0 | 15.0 | -5 |
| Royce Freeman | RB | 22.3 | 15.2 | 7.1 |
| John Kelly | RB | 18.8 | 17.7 | 1.1 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | WR | 19.3 | 17.8 | 1.5 |
| Christian Kirk | WR | 15.2 | 18.0 | -2.8 |
| Kerryon Johnson | RB | 17.5 | 19.8 | -2.3 |
| Michael Gallup | WR | 25.8 | 22.0 | 3.8 |
| Kalen Ballage | RB | 24.7 | 24.0 | 0.7 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | 25.3 | 24.7 | 0.6 |
| Mason Rudolph | QB | 24.0 | 24.7 | -0.7 |
With the wide receiver draft picks very sparse in the first round, we see the position dominate the second round, with nearly half of the 12 players chosen coming from the wideout spot. That is led by James Washington and Calvin Ridley, both expected to be first rounders in typical drafts but falling victim to the booming value of the quarterbacks in this format. This is an example of just how valuable second round picks can be in a 2QB league.
After just missing being the fifth quarterback selected in the round one, Josh Allen comes off the board early here. While the hate has been strong towards Allen and his poor completion percentage, there is a still a strong chance he is the top player drafted overall, which should put him back into the first-round mix when actual rookie drafts begin next month.
There is growing sentiment that Oklahoma State quarterback Mason Rudolph could actually end up as a first-round pick in the NFL Draft, which would certainly push his fantasy value up as well. For now, he’s a nice target in the late second round and is seemingly in a tier of his own behind the “big five.”
Round Three
| Player | Position | February 2QB ADP | April 2QB ADP | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Gesicki | TE | 41.5 | 25.5 | 16 |
| Mark Walton | RB | 22.3 | 26.2 | -3.9 |
| Mark Andrews | RB | 24.8 | 26.5 | -1.7 |
| Anthony Miller | WR | 32.3 | 27.5 | 4.8 |
| DJ Chark | WR | 35.8 | 28.3 | 7.5 |
| Auden Tate | WR | 19.7 | 31.3 | -11.6 |
| Bo Scarbrough | RB | 37.5 | 32.3 | 5.2 |
| Antonio Callaway | WR | 44.0 | 33.7 | 10.3 |
| DaeSean Hamilton | WR | 37.8 | 34.5 | 3.3 |
| Nyheim Hines | RB | 38.5 | 34.8 | 3.7 |
| Deon Cain | WR | 33.0 | 35.5 | -2.5 |
| Josh Adams | RB | 31.2 | 35.8 | -4.6 |
The third round of our 2QB ADP looks very similar to what you might expect from any drafts as teams take chances on their favorite sleeper backs and receivers, while top-tier tight ends are still available. Although no quarterbacks are selected in this round, I do expect Kyle Lauletta to eventually crack the top 36 players.
Round Four and More
| Player | Position | February 2QB ADP | April 2QB ADP | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre’Quan Smith | WR | 43.2 | 37.3 | 5.9 |
| Kyle Lauletta | QB | 28.2 | 37.7 | -9.5 |
| Justin Jackson | RB | 47.3 | 39.3 | 8 |
| Luke Falk | QB | 44.7 | 41.7 | 3 |
| Hayden Hurst | TE | 37.3 | 42.3 | -5 |
| Dante Pettis | WR | 38.7 | 42.3 | -3.6 |
| Simmie Cobbs | WR | 38.5 | 42.5 | -4 |
| Jaylen Samuels | RB | 40.5 | 42.8 | -2.3 |
| Jordan Lasley | WR | 37.2 | 43.7 | -6.5 |
| Jarvion Franklin | RB | N/A | 44.7 | N/A |
| Keke Coutee | WR | 38.8 | 44.8 | -6 |
| Akrum Wadley | RB | 40.3 | 45.2 | -4.9 |
| Mike White | QB | 42.5 | 46.5 | -4 |
| Allen Lazard | WR | 38.5 | 46.7 | -8.2 |
| Roc Thomas | RB | N/A | 46.8 | N/A |
| Marcell Ateman | WR | 46.8 | 47.2 | -0.4 |
| Deontay Burnett | WR | 45.2 | 47.3 | -2.1 |
| JT Barrett | QB | 46.8 | 47.5 | -0.7 |
| Trey Quinn | WR | N/A | 47.8 | N/A |
| Darrel Williams | RB | N/A | 47.8 | N/A |
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i’m in 10 team superflex, i have weak/thin roster. last year I picked deshaun watson at #17. if qbs, fall like this is it better to take qb or fill other positions? i have cam, deshaun, trubisky. i pick #2 (guice), #12, #19, #22. at #12 would taking james washington, freeman or qb that falls like mayfield or rosen make most sense?
ingram, cj anderson, mack, gio, dixon, baldwin, corey davis, juju, cobb, doctson, meredith, shepard, chris godwin
Id be happy getting Guice and Freeman at 2 and 12 with that roster then take best available at 19. If you can package 12 and 19 to move up for Michel I’d be even happier but I doubt you can find a trade partner for that.
i was hoping for penny at #12, but been rising. i have doubts with rojo due to thin frame
Mayfield seems high at 1.04. In a real draft today, I bet both Georgia RB’s and darnold go ahead of him.
QB going to Cleveland will have solid wr, te, rb (especially with barkley), compared to jets, bills, cardinals
I have picks 2, 4, 5 in my 12 team superflex. Still can’t believe Allen hasn’t cracked top 12 yet seeing that he’ll be a top pick in the draft. I have no starting QBs and in complete rebuild. Plan was to go Rosen/Darnold at 2 then Allen, Mayfield 4&5. Trading pick 5 is also a possibility as I’m not psyched about Mayfield. Thoughts? Thanks!
