It’s time to celebrate! We are in NFL Draft month! With just a few short weeks until we learn the landing spots of all key incoming rookies, the puzzle that is a players’ dynasty value is nearing completion. We will soon add draft capital and team situation to the pieces we’ve already placed, including college production, metrics and Combine and Pro Day performance, along with other information.
As dynasty owners continue to understand the value of the incoming rookies, mock drafts show how that value is changing, even during the off-season. I recently completed several 2QB rookie mock drafts and have some brand new average draft position (ADP) data to share. I’ll also include the ADP change since our previous data collection benchmark in late February.
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As expected, the top two running backs, Saquon Barkley and Derrius Guice, remain at the top of our ADP data, but things are wide open beginning with the 1.03 selection. I expect the top fantasy quarterback, which looks to be Josh Rosen, to be the favorite selection at the three spot, but with the parity among the top five signal-callers, the second tier of running backs and the top tier of receivers, the rest of the first round players have similar value.
Once again, four of the top five quarterbacks are drafted in the first round, though we see a gap between the top three of Rosen, Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield down to the end of the first round and Lamar Jackson. Landing spots and draft capital spent on these players will be crucial in determining their ultimate rookie draft value.
Only two wide receivers are drafted in the first round and I absolutely see it playing out that way in super-flex and 2QB rookie drafts. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see some drafts with no receivers selected in the first round at all.
There seem to be some growing concerns about the upside of running back Ronald Jones, especially in comparison to others in the same tier, including Rashaad Penny, Nick Chubb, and Sony Michel. That is evident here as Jones falls nearly three spots and barely hangs onto a spot among the top 12 players.
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With the wide receiver draft picks very sparse in the first round, we see the position dominate the second round, with nearly half of the 12 players chosen coming from the wideout spot. That is led by James Washington and Calvin Ridley, both expected to be first rounders in typical drafts but falling victim to the booming value of the quarterbacks in this format. This is an example of just how valuable second round picks can be in a 2QB league.
After just missing being the fifth quarterback selected in the round one, Josh Allen comes off the board early here. While the hate has been strong towards Allen and his poor completion percentage, there is a still a strong chance he is the top player drafted overall, which should put him back into the first-round mix when actual rookie drafts begin next month.
There is growing sentiment that Oklahoma State quarterback Mason Rudolph could actually end up as a first-round pick in the NFL Draft, which would certainly push his fantasy value up as well. For now, he’s a nice target in the late second round and is seemingly in a tier of his own behind the “big five.”
[table id=220 /]
The third round of our 2QB ADP looks very similar to what you might expect from any drafts as teams take chances on their favorite sleeper backs and receivers, while top-tier tight ends are still available. Although no quarterbacks are selected in this round, I do expect Kyle Lauletta to eventually crack the top 36 players.
Round Four and More
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