2018 Rookie Profile: Sam Darnold, QB USC

Noah Ballweg

The year of the quarterback is upon us. As the 2018 rookie class enters in through the NFL Draft, uncertainty looms over five star quarterbacks. These players will soon take on the weight of a franchise and only time and opportunity will tell what destiny lies before them. Sam Darnold seemingly holds the most promise amongst his fellow draftees, with the potential to be a long-term fantasy contributor if he develops properly. Based on how the draft plays out, Darnold could be asked to take on heavy load early in his rookie season.

The Stats

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Statistics from sports-reference.com.

As a redshirt sophomore coming out of USC, Darnold gave scouts two stellar seasons prior to his jump to the NFL. At just 20 years old, he has areas to improve in, but the sample size says he will be an effective quarterback for years to come.

Darnold threw for 31 touchdowns with only nine interceptions in 2016, leading USC to a 10-3 record and a Rose Bowl victory. He finished with an 86.2 total QBR, ranked third in the nation behind Baker Mayfield at 91.8. The one statistic proving the most about Darnold’s versatility was his 62 rushing attempts for a total of 250 yards and two touchdowns.

In 2017, Darnold was asked to carry the weight of the USC offense. He threw for 4,143 total yards, placing him fifth amongst NCAA quarterbacks. Despite throwing 13 interceptions to 26 touchdowns, he continued to complete passes at over 62% while averaging over 8.5 yards per pass attempt.

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The Film

Let’s start with what needs to be fixed. Most of Darnold’s interceptions this season were due to poor footwork in the pocket. Whether facing a blitz or unpressured, many times he showed discomfort in his dropbacks, causing him to escape the pocket, or throw errantly prior to setting his feet.

Darnold has been able to combat these inefficiencies with his size and strength. At 6’3, 221 lbs, he has the ability to shed tacklers in the pocket, combined with the athleticism to make accurate throws on the run. His competitiveness and moxie will be one of his greatest strengths going forward. You don’t see any other prospects performing pro days in the rain, but Darnold will do anything to prove his worth.

Footwork will make or break a quarterback at the professional level. While it is something that can be improved, it is a bit concerning to watch the slow development Darnold has shown over the past three seasons at USC. If he lands in a system with a great quarterback coach and a year to develop, he could fix many of these issues. However, the speed and design of NFL defenses could hinder his effectiveness.

Darnold displays a tremendous ability to read and react to opposing defenses. Combining this vision to find the open man with his athletic prowess makes him a very difficult quarterback to shut down. For an extended look at Darnold’s film, check out Alex Rollins’ film study in the Dynasty Vault.

Measurables

There aren’t many physical traits that jump off the page when studying Darnold. At 6’3 he qualifies as “average” for the quarterback position. However, being average in size at the NFL level gives scouts a better perspective of how Darnold will be able to perform physically on the field.

One aspect of his physical abilities worth noting is his quickness. While his 4.85 40-yard dash time was certainly not the fastest among quarterbacks, the truth to his quickness lies in the three-cone drill. Darnold posted a 6.96 time in the drill, showing terrific reaction time and the ability to explode quickly when need be. Though his footwork in the pocket may need work, it goes without saying that Darnold has quick feet, giving him the ability to escape when under pressure.

Dynasty Value

Surprisingly, Darnold has been the fourth rookie quarterback selected in rookie and startup drafts. He currently is valued as a late 16th round pick, with an ADP of 203.5. In rookie drafts, he holds a 27.00 ADP, while being taken after Mayfield, Rosen and Lamar Jackson. When the NFL Draft concludes in April, I suspect Darnold’s ADP to rise significantly. Assuming he is placed into a “play now” or “develop for a year” scenario, we should see an early impact in fantasy output very early on in his career.

Conclusion

Of all the quarterback prospects entering the NFL Draft, Sam Darnold has the most heart, and the will to prove it. While most rookie quarterbacks are unproven and have years of development ahead of them, I believe Darnold will prove to be the most mentally prepared of them all. I love his go-getter attitude, which will translate to leadership in the locker room and on the field.

His ADP is expected to rise as the NFL season nears, but right now you are safe to let him slide as late into the second round. There will likely be a development year installed into Darnold’s career in the upcoming season. Be prepared to fully utilize him in the seasons to come after a year of experience under his belt. Darnold will be an NFL starter for many years to come. For him, it will simply be the question of effectiveness determining the legacy he leaves.

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