2018 Rookie Profile: Kalen Ballage, RB Arizona State
Last season was the year of the rookie running back as three of the top five (and four of the top 12) PPR running backs were rookies. This immediate success of first-year backs has dynasty owners searching for 2018’s hidden gem. Enter Kalen Ballage. Ballage is 6’1″ and 227 pounds. He has breakaway speed and the receiving ability of Alvin Kamara but possesses the poor field vision and bust potential of Trent Richardson. A greater enigma may not exist in this year’s draft class than Kalen Ballage.
Collegiate Production
Statistics from sports-reference.com.
A four-star recruit coming out of high school, Ballage carved out a limited role as a true-freshman in 2014 highlighted by a 96-yard kick return in ASU’s Sun Bowl game. Despite both missing the first three games of his sophomore season with mono and splitting carries with Demario Richard, Ballage finished second on the team in yards and rushing TDs in 2015.
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It was September 10th, 2016, the second game of his junior season, when Kalen Ballage introduced himself to the world. He ran for 137 yards and seven (!) touchdowns while adding 48 yards and a TD through the air against Texas Tech. Unfortunately, this would be Ballage’s only 100-yard rushing game of the season as he and Richard were still mired in a timeshare. Most important to his draft stock, it was this junior season where Ballage showcased his pass-catching prowess out of the backfield finishing second on the team in receiving yards.
The hype train for Ballage almost ran off the rails ahead of his senior season. And while he set a career high for rushing yards, his receiving stats fell off a cliff in what was universally regarded as a disappointing campaign. Ballage’s backfield mate Demario Richard (198 attempts, 1,027 yards, and 12 TDs) carried the load for Arizona State in 2017. Ballage’s limited college stats present NFL scouts with quite the query. Was Ballage an unfortunate victim of a coaching staff mismanaging his talents or was he simply not good enough to become the lead-back in Tempe?
The Film
Ballage’s elite receiving skills immediately jump off the screen when viewing his college tape. The ability to use his big, soft hands out of the backfield (he even lined up in the slot on some plays) is impressive for a man of his girth. Ballage shows a wide catch-radius not seen in most collegiate backs as he’s able to adjust to poorly thrown passes almost with ease. The former Sun Devil is not only a strong route runner, but his ability to create separation from defenders in short/check-down routes is a coveted skill at the next level.
Again, for a man of his stature, Ballage is fast and elusive demonstrating strong second-level speed. Once in the open field, he can be a load to bring down. An asset on the goal line, Ballage is able to lower his pad level and pick up critical yardage when his team needs it most.
While Ballage is able to use his build to run low in short yardage situations, the other 95% of the time he’s runs like a statue. This upright running style causes him to go down many times after first contact when he can’t build up a head of steam; an unwelcome surprise with his size. His field vision can be an issue if the hole is not apparent as Ballage will crash into the back of his lineman and get tackled in the backfield. Ballage is a willing pass-blocker but unfortunately, he’s wildly inconsistent due to poor technique.
Ballage had a great Senior Bowl week as he both highlighted his strengths and addressed some of his weakness. The receiving skills were on full display as Ballage won 80 percent of his pass routes during one-on-one drills leaving both linebackers and safeties eating his dust. The practices, and coaching by the NFL assistants on-hand, allowed Ballage to improve his pass blocking and win both of his one-on-one pass-protection drills being graded. Most important, he also worked to address the criticism that his running style was “soft “ as he gained 28 yards after contact on his ten carries in the Senior Bowl game.
Measurables
According to Mock Draftable, Ballage’s athleticism is comparable to Karlos Williams (has shown flashes, but can’t catch on a team), Javorius Allen (solid third-down back with some rushing upside), and Jordan Howard (true three-down back).
Ballage’s surprising speed and agility were on full display at the NFL Combine as he posted the third-best 40-yard dash time among running backs. The ASU product’s receiving ability is confirmed in these numbers as he’s in the 95th percentile of running backs for height, 93rd percentile for arm length, and 88th percentile for wingspan.
While Ballage’s 40 time (4.46) at his size certainly helped his draft stock, his bench press reps did not. Ranking near the top percentile in both height (95th) and weight (88th) but bringing up the rear in bench press reps (16th percentile) is not a winning combination. In fact, those scouts who labeled Ballage as “soft” were given a quantifiable justification to do so.
Conclusion and Dynasty Value
The three running back comps by Mock Draftable highlighted above show the three likely paths for Ballage’s NFL/Dynasty career. In Karlos Williams, meet Kalen Ballage’s floor. He will show signs of being a productive (even dominant) back, but won’t be able to get out of his own way and will struggle to stay on an NFL roster. I don’t see this outcome for Ballage unless he winds up in a terrible landing spot, is stubbornly resistant to much-needed tutelage from his position coach, and/or gets suspended twice for banned substances ala Karlos Williams.
In Javorius “Buck” Allen, I see the most likely career path for Ballage. A complementary back (as Allen was to Alex Collins last season) who does the majority of his work on passing downs and the goal line. Ballage already has NFL-ready receiving skills and the frame to be a force near the end zone. Buck Allen finished as RB23 in PPR leagues last season and I could see Ballage providing similar value with a bit more upside than Allen.
Kalen Ballage would need a few things to break just right to become a three-down back. First, he would need to be drafted into the perfect landing spot (Tampa Bay, Indianapolis, or Detroit) where he has no strong competition. Next, he will need to be patient and receptive to the no-nonsense NFL coaching he needs to fix the obvious holes in his game. Finally, he will either need time (half to a full season) to impress the coaching staff enough to make him “the guy,” or a little bit of bad luck befalling the back ahead of him on the depth chart (see Ware, Spencer in August of 2017).
The March 2018 rookie ADP data from DLF has Ballage going, on average, as the 19th player (RB10) off the board in the mock drafts run by Ryan McDowell. Given he doesn’t end up in New Orleans or a team already stacked at the running back position, I’m buying Ballage all day at that price. He is ready right now to step on any NFL field as a pass-catching and goal-line back (two desirable skills for fantasy running backs) with the potential for so much more. Projected to go anywhere from rounds three-six in the upcoming NFL Draft, Ballage could be a tremendous value in both fantasy and real-life football.
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