Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag! Let’s get into your questions.
I have picks 1.05, 1.09, and 2.05 in the upcoming draft and find my team to be set in all areas but RB. I currently have Lamar Miller, Chris Carson, Mike Davis, and James Conner. Pretty sad eh? My potential trade partner has Shady, Ajayi, D.Henry, and Burkhead on his roster. Besides pick 1.1 he also has picks 1.07 and 2.01. Do you think me offering picks 1.05 and 1.09 is enough to get his 1.01? Or too much? I figured I’d take Barkley with 1.01 and my 2.05 would probably still net me a startable RB. Thanks for your help.
Kevin Billiter in Decatur Illinois
12 team 0.5 PPR, Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 WR/TE
If you can get 1.01 for 1.05 and 1.09 I would absolutely do it. My guess is it isn’t enough though. You may have to add something else on top to get it done. Another route you could go would be to offer your 1.05 for his Derrick Henry. Many are scared about what the Dion Lewis signing means for Henry, but I’m still buying him as a high RB2/fringe RB1. I like Lewis but I’m not convinced he will be as productive in Tennessee as he was in New England. He hasn’t been a picture of health over his career either so there are multiple scenarios in which Henry could be a workhorse kind of back for the Titans.
This will be our first rookie draft. At which pick would you say the first rookie IDP player is in play?
Brett in Milwaukee
10 team 0.5 PPR IDP, Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 DL, 1 LB, 1 CB
I’m not an IDP guy but DLF has a fantastic IDP team and I brought your question to them. Both hosts of our IDP podcast, Read and React chimed in:
Adam Tzikas: Bradley Chubb probably somewhere in the mid-third with that format. Maybe even later than that
Tom Kislingbury: A late third for me at best. With a starting lineup like that, there will always be good options on the waiver wire. Let the other teams stash IDPs and stock up on offensive skill position players.
Our IDP team lead Doug Green said he might pull the trigger on Roquan Smith in the late second or early third.
There are a few opinions for you Brett. Hope that helps!
I know everyone expects instant production from their rookies these days, but who do you like as a 2nd/3rd year breakouts at WR?
Chris in England
12 team standard scoring, IDP, Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, Flex, 2 DL, 3 LB, 2 DB, flex
This is a great question and one I might steal for some podcast discussion! The 2014 rookie class spoiled us with receivers who produced in year one and that has had lasting effects on the dynasty mindset. Historically, 2014 was an outlier. Before 2014, we were patient with wide receiver prospects, waiting for year two or three breakouts in many cases.
In 2018 we are very much victims of recency bias. Second and third year wide receivers who haven’t produced at the NFL level are often discarded and forgotten. Nelson Agholor is the poster child for this. Last year around this time Agholor was barely being drafted in startup drafts. In March 2017 startups, Agholor was being drafted as the 249th player off the board. That’s in the late 21st round. Dynasty owners who acquired him for basically free profited greatly when Philadelphia’s entire offense took off last season.
So who are the candidates for second or third-year breakout campaigns in 2018? Looking at the 2017 class, both Corey Davis and Mike Williams were drafted in the first round and both largely disappointed due to nagging injuries keeping them off the field for most of the season. With healthy offseasons, both could rebound in 2018, especially Davis who should be the number one target in the Titans passing offense.
If you want to take a shot on a player who is almost free right now, take a look at the other 2017 first round rookie wide receiver, John Ross. He was limited by health injuries and a terrible team in 2017, but the Bengals can’t be any worse than they were in 2017. At the very least they are making an effort to improve the offensive line this off-season, which is going to be important if they want Andy Dalton to have any success as a passer in 2018. Other 2017 rookies I like to take a step in their second season are Chris Godwin, Josh Reynolds, Carlos Henderson, and Ardarius Stewart.
The 2016 class looking for their third-year breakout is rough. Outside of Tyreek Hill, who has already broken out in a big way, there isn’t a lot to like about this class. Laquon Treadwell is still buried behind Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. He likely needs a new team to get any real opportunity. Josh Doctson may seem to be the likely candidate but if he couldn’t do it with Kirk Cousins, can we really expect him to do it with Alex Smith? It’s possible but I’m not counting on it.
Will Fuller was on a blistering pace with a healthy Deshaun Watson and while seven touchdowns in four games is certainly an unsustainable rate, the upside of what he could potentially do over the course of an entire season with Watson makes him my favorite wide receiver to buy from the 2016 class. I also still like Sterling Shepard and Malcolm Mitchell.
That’s going to do it for this week. If you’d like your question answered in this column, please submit them here!