2018 Rookie Profile: Mark Walton, RB Miami
Any fantasy football player can strike value in round one of their rookie drafts. It takes dedication, and a little bit of a luck, to hit on players later in the draft. Finding that diamond in the rough gives owners bragging rights over their friends and a player to build their team around. After the running back renaissance of 2017, fantasy owners have been targeting the position heavily in rookie drafts.
Over the last few years, fans have been enamored with the depth of talent in the 2018 draft class at the running back position and it is not disappointing. In March 2018 ADP data, ten running backs are going off the board in the first two rounds. Mark Walton is a player for dynasty owners to target in the back end of round two of their rookie drafts for a high-upside play.
Collegiate Career
Mark Walton was a highly regarded prospect coming out of Booker T Washington High School in Miami Florida in the 2015 recruiting class. He was regarded as a four-star recruit, and was ranked the 83rd overall recruit and tenth-ranked running back according to 247sports.
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Statistics from sports-reference.com
Walton never received quite the hype as many of the other early rookie running backs, although he managed to produce a strong sophomore season. As a freshman, Walton was behind sophomore running back Joseph Yearby, and then took the starting role the following season. Unfortunately, an ankle injury suffered early in his junior season would eventually sideline him for all of 2017 and require surgery.
| Year | MS rec | MS rec yds | MS rec TDs | MS rush | MS rush yds | MS rush TDS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 8.2% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 31.5% | 29.0% | 47.4% |
| 2016 | 10.3% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 49.9% | 55.9% | 58.3% |
| 2017 | 3.1% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 14.0% | 20.0% | 15.8% |
Thanks to Dynasty League Football’s very own Peter Howard, we can pull Market Share data that shows in his strong sophomore season, Walton accounted for nearly half of the teams rushing workload and it’s rushing yardage. To illustrate his ability as a dual threat, the statistics display that in the passing game he accounted for 10.3% of the Hurricanes receptions that year.
Walton came out strong his junior year, rushing for 204 yards on 11 carries against Toledo. He originally suffered the ankle injury the following week against Duke. In those first five games in 2017, he was averaging nearly 7.6 yards per carry in 2017 before being sidelined for the year when he reaggravated the ankle injury, which required surgery the following week against Florida State University.
#FilmDontLie
I sat down and watched the game clips of Mark Walton and quickly came away with one major realization. I had ranked him far too low in my previous rankings.
Walton is a solid three-down running back. He is one of the best young running backs in pass protection. He does a good job sticking incoming defenders and knowing his assignment in blitz pick-up. When running, he keeps his pads low and leans into contact, allowing him to slip defenders who come in too high or off balance. He attacks defenders with good acceleration to get them off balance or to eliminate any possible angles of attack the defender might have committed to. Walton has a powerful stout build that absorbs punishment, and dishes it out just as frequently.
When you compare film, you can tell that Walton appears significantly faster from 2016 to 2017. He doesn’t have the big-time home run speed, and he’s more quick than fast. At times, Walton can be too indecisive and needs to just hit the hole. Like many young running backs, he looks for the long gain which isn’t there when stretching out a run. This leads to wasted energy and runs end up for a loss instead of small gains. I would like to see him work a little more on his footwork at the next level. Walton tends to chop his feet to gather up underneath himself before making a cut when he could just stick his plant leg and go.
I am a fan of the balance he exhibits on first contact with defenders. He has a great ability to maintain his balance and continue downfield.
2016 vs FSU (cont)
+ Great balance on this run. Was called back for holding on OL pic.twitter.com/0wY0iDQ2qn— Pete Lawrence (@_PeteLaw) March 27, 2018
NFL Scouting Combine
As you can tell by the spider graph from Mock Draftable, Walton had a very underwhelming Combine performance. What can I tell you about Walton that was impressive at the Combine? Not much. Of note: at 5’10” and 202 lbs, Walton has a Body Mass Index of 29.0. However, if you compare Mark Walton to Ronald Jones, who measured in at a similar size, there is a distinct size difference between the two.
Miami held its Pro Day on March 28th, 2018 and from all the reports, it sounds like Walton came in focused and really set it on fire. Reports had Walton timed around 4.5 seconds in his 40-yard dash at his Pro-Day.
Dynasty Value
In March 2018 ADP Walton is being taken around pick 22 in fantasy drafts. I am confident his draft spot will continue to slide after the underwhelming Combine numbers. It’s unlikely most of your league mates will be as plugged into the Pro Day numbers as those of you reading this article.
Walton has the feel of a running back whose value will be very landing spot dependent. He doesn’t fit the mold or build of a traditional lead running back, but within the right offense, he can be a very valuable complementary piece. Or, if the main back goes down, a good option to fill in.
Conclusion
Mark Walton is not the top of the draft bell cow running back like Derrius Guice, Saquon Barkley or Nick Chubb. He is, however, a player who can be had at a value that will still be a solid contributor. You can feel comfortable in drafting Walton at a discount while other owners sleep on him after his 2017 injury-shortened season.
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Pete is a Western Washington University (Go Vikings! Undefeated at Football since 2009!) History grad with a doctorate in dynasty football, from a certificate he bought online. He prefers stats and analytics but realizes film grinding is an important part of the process. Dabbles in "Mild Takes" and believes in the process.
