2018 IDP Rookie Profile: Derwin James, S Florida State

Tom Kislingbury

I say this a lot but this is a good time to mention it – safety is my favorite position in the NFL. I love the flexibility, the athleticism and the combination of technical coverage ability and crunching hard-hits. It’s a ton of fun watching safeties because you never know what they’re going to do next.

Derwin James is head and shoulders above every other safety in this class for me. He’s a top ten overall prospect in pure ability terms and also a tantalizingly unique player in terms of skillset. And yet it seems to me that the football community as a whole is struggling to understand what he is. Let’s delve into that.

Statistics

At safety, stats often don’t tell a good story of who and what a player is. James is no different. Here’s how he produced as a three-year starter at Florida State:

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Statistics from sports-reference.com.

Losing almost the whole of 2016 to injury was a big blow but it’s not a worry at all to me because he was hugely productive before and after the injury.

It’s also worth noting that college defensive statistics can be somewhat subjective. Pro Football Focus, for example, credited James in his last season for 65 solos and 16 assists.

So let’s look at some more advanced numbers. Firstly, how much was he targeted?

In 2015, James was thrown at 34 times and allowed 16 catches. He managed to bat one of those incompletions down. In 2017 he was targeted 38 times and allowed just 17 catches. Of those 21 incomplete targets, two were intercepted by James and eight were batted down. Nine coverage plays to 17 catches allowed is fantastic.

Let’s put it another way. James was targeted on average once for every 10 snaps he lined up in coverage. He allowed a catch into his coverage once every 23 coverage snaps.

In the running game, James is also a difference-maker. He played the run for 362 snaps in 2017 and produced 29 solos and 11 assists. That’s a tackle on approximately 11% of snaps which is extremely good for a safety. That’s a decent number for a linebacker let alone a player who we’ve already seen is proficient in coverage.

Lastly, James offers something that most safeties don’t – pass rush ability. He rushed the passer 111 times over his career and produced seven sacks, six hits, and 25 hurries. Again – impressive production.

To summarise, James was efficient and effective in all three phases of the game for two years. He can do it all on the field.

Film

As you’d expect from his stats, James is hugely impressive in his flexibility. He’s fun to watch because seeing where he lines up on each snap is a surprise. This is what has led to so much confusion about his NFL position. He can play deep safety; either in cover one or cover two looks. He can play in the box as an extra linebacker. He can line up on the edge as a true pass rusher. But he’s not restricted to doing any of those things all the time. You can see him display every skill a safety needs here:

James has the flexibility to do a bit of everything from down to down which gave FSU the ability to do a lot elsewhere with their coverage. When James lines up deep it means the offense is trying to track an extra player they would otherwise not be looking for as a specific read. When James lines up in the box or the edge he’s a potential pass rush threat and can change protection calls. He adds flexibility and the ability to attack in different ways.

It’s worth noting that although this is a fantastic quality in NFL terms it’s not always for us IDP fans. James reminds me most of Harrison Smith of the Vikings. But I can see shades of Eric Berry too. Those two are elite defenders but have only been sporadically useful as IDPs. The reason is that because they’re so flexible, they often are not used in spots that offer the best efficiency in terms of individual statistics. Notably, Smith and Berry are both excellent coverage players and often used as the deep man in single deep looks. Which is a terrible spot for racking up tackles.

Another recent example is Jamal Adams of the Jets. He combines excellent coverage and box ability which meant he looked good as a rookie but was not an elite IDP. He was pretty inefficient compared to true box safeties.

Measurables

There is no better way to show James’ all-around excellence than his combine performance:

As we expected, he showed up fast, strong, explosive and impressive in every facet. Let’s look a little deeper though. Here are the players he best compares to physically:

I mentioned Eric Berry before which is an obvious comparison. But the presence of Deone Bucannon is fascinating. Their similarity is striking which will probably convince some people that James is a box safety/linebacker hybrid. He’s not. He’s so much more than that.

Dynasty Value

Because James is such a hot property in NFL draft terms, he has to be viewed with caution. He’s a tough player to understand and people are going to make incorrect sweeping statements about him and get carried away.

Last year, the equivalents were Malik Hooker and Jamal Adams. It was obvious they were both going to go in the first half of the first round and many people who had not watched them instantly anointed them as difference-makers. Even though he was clearly a deep safety (and therefore a bad fantasy option) Malik Hooker was taken in the top 20 picks of two separate rookie drafts that I was in last year. Jamal Adams was routinely drafted too early by IDP owners who thought he was a Jonathan Cyprien tackling machine.

Something similar is likely to happen in your rookie drafts this year. I like James a lot. I’d love to own him. But most leagues will have at least one owner who has listened to too many glowing reports and will grab him earlier than he should be taken. I wouldn’t be taking James before the fourth round in most leagues simply because safeties are not that valuable in most leagues. I’m certain that he’ll be long gone before that point so I’m resigned to not owning him anywhere. This season at least.

Conclusion

James could easily be a top-tier safety in his career but it’s incredibly rare for any player to stay at that level consistently. Not everybody is Landon Collins who strings together top-three seasons. For instance in 2016, Tony Jefferson, T.J. Ward, Antoine Bethea, Rodney McLeod and Kenny Vaccaro were all top tier safeties. But they all disappeared in 2017. Vaccaro was relegated to playing in the slot the next season and is now a free agent struggling for work. It’s just very tough to stay relevant and productive at the position.

So, all in all, I love James as a prospect. If he lands on your favorite team, you should be very happy. But even though he’s a special talent I do not view him as a special IDP prospect and in fact, I’m very wary that he’ll be over-drafted on name value.

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tom kislingbury