Charting the 2018 Running Back Class: Ronald Jones
When it comes to running back rankings, Ronald Jones is all over the place. In some, he’s a top-five guy and in others, he barely cracks the top ten. I can see both sides of the story. Although Jones can showcase some electrifying runs, there are still some red flags on his profile. No matter where you place him in your rankings, you have to recognize him as a very talented running back prospect.
One of the biggest knocks on Jones is his limited use in the passing game. During his entire three-year career at USC, he caught just 32 passes for 302 yards and three touchdowns. He accounted for just 3.46 percent of the team’s passing targets during his junior season. However, he did manage to reel in 82.35 percent of the passes that came his way while also averaging 11 yards per target. Per Pro Football Focus he only accumulated .87 yards per route ran, ranking 37th amongst all running backs in 2017. No matter how you slice the bread, Jones’ production in the passing game leaves you wanting more.
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The last running back to record more than 20 receptions in a season for the Trojans was Javorius Allen (41) in 2014. Since then, the passing targets to the running backs have been rather limited. The scheme could be one of the reasons for his low-level production.
Right now is a good time to go back to the tape and evaluate how he catches the ball out of the backfield. If he looks smooth, then he’s smooth. Honestly, a running back just needs to be good enough to catch passes out of the flat and on screens to have enough upside in PPR leagues. Just because a player didn’t catch a lot of passes in college doesn’t mean they won’t be an efficient pass catcher in the NFL.
Even though he was a major piece in USC’s offense, Jones never owned a sizable portion of their offensive production. This past year was his best season where he owned a 25.63 percent of the offensive production. His lack of use in in the passing game is why he didn’t submit world class market share numbers. From an analytical standpoint, his career 20.52 percent market share suggests he was productive enough in college that he could still develop into a functional asset for fantasy purposes.
The chart above is derived from a ten-game sample, equating to a total of 181 carries.
Like most running backs, the majority of his carries were directed between the tackles. With 32.04 percent of his runs being designed to go to the perimeter of the defense, Jones insinuates that he has the ability to be a dangerous player once he gets the ball in open space. Per PFF, he averaged 3.5 yards per carry after first contact and had a 76.4 elusive rating, ranking 12th amongst all collegiate running backs. The statistics prove Jones can be tough to tackle in the open field. He could be a dynamic playmaker if he gets into the right system.
When watching him on tape, it’s quite apparent that he has more than one way to win. Jones has a knack for planting his feet and then shifting his momentum to reverse field, allowing him to easily slip by defenders. What I like about him is that he’s not afraid to take what the defense gives him. He will find the open hole, lower his shoulder and do his best to maximize all opportunities.
The statistics in the chart above reflect how many times he lined up in the listed formations. The data is derived from a ten-game sample.
There’s a trend that’s starting to emerge. In my two previous articles for the Charting the 2018 Running Back Class Series, both Saquon Barkley and Royce Freeman received 100 percent of their carries out of the shotgun or pistol. This is the norm in college football and we should see more of it going forward. Jones seeing 100 percent of his carries out of shotgun shouldn’t hinder his ability to translate his game to the NFL. A lot of running backs in this day and era see a lot of their workload out of the shotgun in both the collegiate and NFL levels.
The chart above is derived from a ten-game sample, equating to a total of 181 carries.
It’s not a surprise that 59.03 percent of his carries went for three yards or less. For most running backs, the majority of their carries go for short gains. However, it does seem like he gets stopped at the line of scrimmage more than most running backs. Another thing to note is that only 7.22 percent of his runs went for 16 or more yards. This indicates that he could find it difficult to bust out long runs. On the contrary, it doesn’t mean he can’t burn the defense for a long gain either.
According to Footballoutsiders.com, USC’s offensive line relinquished a 19.5 percent Stuff Rate which ranked 65th in the nation. This means Jones was hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on almost one out of every five carries. The offensive line’s inefficiencies could have held Jones back from being a more dominant force.
Despite some of the red marks on his profile, I still think he’s one of the better running back prospects in this draft class. I wish he didn’t pull his hamstring at the combine because I wanted to see how he stacked up athletically against some of the other running backs. Everything I’ve seen on tape indicates he has the speed and quickness to compete in the NFL. He may not be the fastest guy on the field, but he does have the quicks to be dangerous in the second level of the defense.
Where he goes in the draft is going to depict where I take him in rookie drafts. He currently has a 6.90 Rookie ADP and I can definitely see him fall to the later portion of the first-round if not the second round if he gets drafted into a stagnant offense. If he goes to a good situation, then I see him hovering in the middle of the first round. It doesn’t matter what team drafts him, he will never be a top three option in rookie drafts. Those spots are locked for Saquon Barkley, Derrius Guice, and Nick Chubb. It’s going to be hard for him to surpass any of those players.
Like many other running backs in this class, Jones has the talent to become one of the top assets to own in fantasy. There are a lot of good running backs coming out for the draft this year, and only so many of them are going to hit. Landing spot in the draft is going to be very important this year when it comes to predicting the future output for some of these running backs. I like to preach talent over situation, but that’s hard to do when almost every option on the board is talented.
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