Welcome to the Dynasty Trading Post, a regular column here at Dynasty League Football. This column is intended to track which players or assets increasing, or even decreasing, in value, allowing our readers to adjust their sights and values accordingly. After entering the Free Agency period in the NFL and as we approach the NFL Draft, trades are starting to heat up for dynasty leagues. Here is a breakdown of what the Dynasty Trade Finder is showing us.
Robinson’s Value Is Exploding
There has been a significant jump in the number of trades involving Allen Robinson over the past two months. He was tied for the most trades of any player in the dynasty leagues that the Dynasty Trade Finder tracks. This jump in activity can be tied directly to speculation, and later confirmation, that he would be leaving Jacksonville.
His signing with Chicago is bound to make him the top receiver for the Bears, a role he is quite familiar with, but he now lands with a team clearly in a rebuilding phase and one with a young quarterback desperate for dependable targets. The two sides in these trades are clearly either betting on a huge amount of targets for Robinson or that his talent will be squandered on an offense that still needs to get its feet under it.
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…Don’t Forget About Alshon
Alshon Jeffery had just as many trades involving him over the past two months as Robinson. Nothing helps the value of a player like winning a Super Bowl and signing a nice contract extension linking him to one of the league’s top quarterbacks for the foreseeable future. It doesn’t hurt that Philadelphia cut loose fellow free agent signee, Torrey Smith, which gave Jeffrey’s value a bit of a boost.
I expect his trade value to return to a mid-range value with the signing of Mike Wallace. It’s not that Wallace will negatively impact the production of Jeffery to any huge degree, but he will get the targets that were up for grabs when Smith left – targets that those looking to acquire Jeffery may have been hoping for. Whatever the case may be, the ride has been fun for those who moved Jeffery over the past two months.
…Or Henry Either
For all the wide receiver trades over the past two months, it would be fairly easy to overlook running backs in this piece. Luckily, Derrick Henry wasn’t going to let that happen on, his newly-established, watch. The era of “exotic smash mouth” (whatever that meant in the first place) appears to be over in Tennessee. DeMarco Murray was released nearly three weeks ago but the rumors of that move have been swirling for a while now.
Henry owners, and those seeking to be owners, have been waiting for this move for two seasons – ever since the Titans made the puzzling move of drafting Henry and signing Murray in the same off-season. Dion Lewis is now Henry’s running mate in the backfield, but his role is almost certainly a complementary one which will see him on the field for passing downs, a role Henry never filled in the first place. Henry now appears to be the bell cow rusher for Tennessee and his value is soaring as a result.
Picks, Picks, Get Your Picks Here!
The market for future picks has exploded over the past two months and I’m scratching my head trying to figure out a reason why. Could be the NFL Draft is less than a month away? Nah, that couldn’t be it. It appears that dynasty owners like to draft, who would have guessed? Draft picks are, by far, the hottest commodity on the trading market at this time.
The hottest picks to acquire appear to be late first rounds, with nearly 43% of all first-round picks traded coming after the 1.08. Mid-round first picks (1.04-1.08) are accounting for 30% of all first rounders traded and early firsts (1.01-1.03) are only 27% of the trading volume. It seems that those who own an early pick already know who they are going to pick and only a king’s ransom would be sufficient in order to move off their pick. 2018 second round picks are nearly as popular though, accounting for only 20% less volume than all 2018 first round picks combined.
With a draft class that is as deep as we’ve seen in years, dynasty owners are looking for any way they can to pick up as many picks as possible. Those on the other side of the coin are likely moving multiple picks in order to trade up in the draft or to acquire establish players they’ve coveted at the expense of those inflicted with rookie fever.
How About Those Defensive Players?
Due to some issues in the last article, I didn’t include defensive players in my previous column. Well, this month they’re back and one player dominated all trade action over the past two months: Joe Schobert. Schobert had the most trades by volume of any IDP player in the league. It seems that IDP owners have taken this opportunity to cash in on his value after, likely, picking him up off of waivers, or those looking to help out their linebacker corps have been targeting him as a low-cost, high-upside option.
Elsewhere, IDP owners clearly have been paying attention to the Cardinals’ defensive secondary as Tyrann Mathieu and Budda Baker captured the top two spots for defensive back trade volume. For those of you who don’t follow the defensive side of the ball too heavily, Mathieu was recently released by Arizona and later signed with Houston. Meanwhile, Baker has established himself as one of the premier safeties in the NFL and has seen his value skyrocket in IDP leagues as a result of his breakout rookie season.
The next edition of the Dynasty Trading Post will focus on how trades that have occurs following the shakeup that the NFL Draft delivers each year. Expect to see a huge uptick in trades involving both 2018 and 2019 picks, as well as rookies finding some footing in the rankings. Draft Day trades in the NFL could also see some veteran players in new uniforms and their values adjusting accordingly. The next article in the column should be the most exciting yet! Stay tuned, and happy trading!