2018 Rookie Profile: Derrius Guice, RB LSU

Rob Willette Posted On March 28, 2018

We have earned this. After years of debating whether or not Isaiah Crowell is truly worthy of our coveted fourth-round pick, we have finally reached a point where the running back pool is deep enough to get us excited at the prospect of investing in the position as opposed to feeling obligated to fill out our starting roster with pedestrian talents. You may be tired of hearing about how we have another deep class of runners on our hands. I want to celebrate it. In many years, Derrius Guice would be a clear top prospect at the position. In 2018, he heads the second-tier.

The Stats

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Guice flashed early as an apprentice to Leonard Fournette and thrived when Fournette missed time in 2016. His 2017 was certainly his least efficient campaign, though he was dogged by nagging injuries which slowed him significantly.

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Statistics from sports-reference.com.

His sophomore season clearly stands as his premier campaign, and when evaluating Guice it is important to take 2016 into account as he was at his best. Guice piled up six 100-yard games, including two monster efforts of over 250 yards. He set a school record by torching Texas A&M for 285 yards, adding four touchdowns in the process.

Production from LSU backs has come in spite of limited quarterback play, making Guice’s run as the Tigers’ lead back all the more impressive. Many downgrade him due to a limited receiving profile, though for what it is worth, he was a U.S. Army All-American Bowl Game MVP after volunteering to play slot receiver and piling up 153 yards and two touchdown receptions. He has receiving chops which belie the numbers.

The Film

Guice takes exception to any defender attempting to tackle him. Hockey uses a term labeled “compete-level” to evaluate its prospects’ overall desire. If football utilized the same terminology, Guice would shatter the metric. He simply detests being tackled and is looking punish the defense on every carry.

His style is not always a plus, however, as it exposes him to some unnecessary punishment and leads to him seeking out contact as opposed to finding running lanes in some cases. But it is the hallmark of his game and part of what makes him great. You do not want to curtail his aggressiveness too much, as it is a key component of his success.

Part of what allows him to run so hard is excellent balance. He’s smooth in the way he bounces off defenders and he is not one to be foiled by silliness such as arm tackles. He can stay composed in tight spaces and his mind and body work in synchronization as he glides through the second level. While not the most electric athlete in a phone booth, he displays enough acceleration to put defenders on their heels.

Like many rookie backs, there is work to do in pass protection, though given his approach to the game and his overall physicality there is little reason to believe he will not become at least adequate in this area. Unlike a lot of high-effort runners (Thomas Rawls comes to mind) he does not need to utilize his high motor to just stick in the league; rather, he uses it to become a high-end prospect.

He’s kind of an old-school type of running back, though with enough new age nuance to stick as a high-level starter. The real question is how long he can last if he continues to absorb significant abuse from NFL-level athletes. It is a question for another day, however, as dynasty owners should not be overly concerned with how Guice will fare on a second contract. He has skills which translate to a day one contributor and elite dynasty commodity.

Measurables

The measurable for Guice support his game. He’s more than athletic enough to saddle up next to NFL athletes, though it is not the engine which makes his game go.

Most impressive is the long speed. Despite being 224 pounds, he can scoot in the open field and close on big plays. The limited vertical jump displays his lack of elite explosion, though unless you’re a wingspan snob, there is not too much here which is of concern. He’s a well-proportioned back built to handle his combative style.

Conclusion

Guice is the consensus number two overall pick in March ADP collected at dlfstg02.dynastyleaguefootball.com. He has been a highly respected commodity in the devy community since he was the number one running back in the 2015 class, and did not disappoint during a highly decorated career at LSU. He has a legendary work ethic which has helped him become a weight room phenom and has a clear focus on becoming an elite NFL running back.

The flaws in his game are details which can be ironed out with additional reps and quality coaching. A simplistic statement perhaps, but he does not have the athletic limitations or work ethic concerns which can sink so many prospects. There’s little to nitpick overall, and Guice is well-equipped to lead a backfield and his overall profile suggests he is a slam-dunk as one of this year’s top fantasy prospects.

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