We’ve arrived at receivers, the last position in this series. We’ve worked through running backs to buy and sell, tight ends to buy and sell, and quarterbacks to buy and sell.
Two years ago, the top 20 in our March 2016 average draft position (ADP) data was dominated by receivers as 19 wideouts were in the top 23, with Rob Gronkowski, Todd Gurley, David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell being the exceptions. But it’s a different world right now as the influx of some great young running backs has changed the landscape. In the top 20 of our March 2018 ADP data, there are almost as many running backs (nine) as there are wideouts (11).
It’s not just the ranks of the elite that look different. For instance, the RB20 right now is LeSean McCoy, and he’s, on average, the 53rd player taken in our staff startup mocks. In February of 2016, the RB20 was Jeremy Hill (sorry for the reminder), and he was being selected 79th on average.
As running backs have gained in value, that’s had a ripple effect on wideouts as they are getting bumped down the totem pole. In March of 2016, the WR30 (Tyler Lockett) was the 43rd overall pick, and the WR30 now (Dez Bryant) is the 62nd overall selection. That’s created a buyer’s market for wideouts, especially for the receivers valued a few tiers below the elite assets.
Let’s take a look at four wideouts to buy this off-season.
For clarity, all ADP numbers are pulled from the aforementioned March 2018 ADP data, which includes incoming rookies and is one of the best ways to gauge the current dynasty market.
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Keelan Cole, WR JAX
Cole burst onto the scene over the second half of 2017, but I’m not sure people realize how good he was.
An undrafted player from Kentucky Wesleyan, Cole wasn’t on many radars last summer, but he was a contributor for the Jaguars right away, coming up with at least one catch in each of Jacksonville’s last 15 games after Allen Robinson was lost for the year in the season’s opening week.
It was in his final ten games that Cole really blew up. Only 40 wideouts totaled at least 700 receiving yards in 2017, and Cole did that in his last ten games. His numbers over that ten-game onslaught put Cole up there among the game’s best. According to Adam Harstad, only ten receivers had 700 yards over the final ten weeks (adjusted for byes), and it’s a pretty dope list.
| Player | Games | Receptions | Yards | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 9 | 59 | 996 | 7 |
| Julio Jones | 10 | 54 | 978 | 2 |
| Keenan Allen | 10 | 69 | 947 | 5 |
| Michael Thomas | 10 | 69 | 842 | 3 |
| Antonio Brown | 8 | 53 | 833 | 7 |
| Marvin Jones | 10 | 41 | 821 | 6 |
| Tyreek Hill | 9 | 45 | 793 | 5 |
| Adam Thielen | 10 | 53 | 788 | 4 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 8 | 43 | 725 | 5 |
| Keelan Cole | 10 | 36 | 701 | 3 |
I mean, look at those names — it’s receiver royalty. Among that group, only Cole and Marvin Jones (WR29) are being valued outside the top 20 wideouts, and with Cole, he’s not even close as he’s the WR67 and 147th overall player.
Now I’m not trying to say Cole is as good as any of the above players or that his future production will align with what he did over the final ten games of 2017. But what I do think is that Cole is a very intriguing player who put up good numbers as a rookie and showed some serious big-play ability, averaging 17.8 yards per catch.
Blake Bortles is Blake Bortles, but we already know Cole can produce with Bortles under center. The only concern here is the stiff competition for targets in a run-first offense, and it’s a legit worry. Even though they let A-Rob walk, the Jags have a pretty appealing and deep group of pass-catchers in Cole, Marqise Lee, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Donte Moncrief, Dede Westbrook and Rashad Greene. It’s definitely a crowded depth chart, but while each player has some upside, each player — including Cole — has plenty of downside, too, so it’s hard to pinpoint how market shares will shake out.
While it’s hard to imagine Cole getting relegated to the bench after playing the way he did as a rookie, even if he doesn’t start in 2018 or doesn’t see a significant amount of targets, the price to get him is cheap enough that you might as well roll the dice and make an investment for the future on an exciting young player who had an under-the-radar breakout campaign last year.
And if Cole does end up with a high-volume role, we know he can give us the fantasy goods with that kind of workload, because he did just that over the final four weeks of 2017, when he saw 8.25 targets per game and averaged 5.0 catches, 106.5 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per outing. For context, Sammy Watkins has two games of at least 90 yards across his past two seasons (23 games). Cole had three straight games of at least 99 yards from Week 14 to Week 16.
The upside is there, and the price is so, so nice.
Pierre Garcon, WR SF
Garcon played only half of a season last year, but he was pretty darn good in those eight games, averaging 5.0 catches and 62.5 yards per contest. That made him a respectable PPR asset as he put up 11.2 PPR points per game, good for the 36th-best mark among all wideouts, and he did that without scoring a touchdown.
Garcon finished with 40 catches and 500 yards, so he was on pace for 80 grabs and 1,000 yards — a pair of barriers that were hit by just eight receivers last season. And we shouldn’t get too worked up by the lack of touchdowns for two reasons. Prior to 2017, Garcon had recorded a receiving score once every 191.0 yards, so the goose egg last year can be attributed to some bad luck. Secondly, the 49ers’ offense was horrific during Garcon’s eight games, tossing a mere five passing scores in that span, so he wasn’t in a situation that was conducive to scoring touchdowns.
Of course, after Garcon got hurt, the San Fran offense added a decent piece by the name of Jimmy Garoppolo, and all Jimmy G did was pretty much change the entire outlook of the franchise. Garoppolo started just five games, but it was enough to make everyone realize that the 49ers’ offense wouldn’t be a joke anymore as he averaged 260.0 passing yards per game — much better than the clips put up by C.J. Beathard (204.3) and Brian Hoyer (207.5) — and tossed seven touchdowns.
The dynasty community has bought into Garoppolo as he’s currently the QB6, but we haven’t gotten on board with his top pass-game weapons as both Garcon and Marquise Goodwin are being valued outside the top-50 receivers.
Even if the 49ers’ offense was going to be bad again, you could make a solid case for buying Garcon based off what he did over the first eight games. But now that San Fran will have a good attack — maybe a great one if we’ve seen only the tip of the iceberg with Garoppolo pulling the strings and Head Coach Kyle Shanahan calling the plays — Garcon is even more attractive.
Garcon will have to fight with Goodwin for the top spot on the depth chart after Goodwin emerged down the stretch in Garcon’s absence, but there should be plenty of balls to go around after Garoppolo averaged 35.6 pass attempts per game in his five starts. On top of that, Goodwin’s big-play ability and Garcon’s chain-moving traits should work well together. Plus, Garcon has a much better track record of health than Goodwin does. Prior to 2017, Garcon had missed just two games over the previous four seasons, while Goodwin has suffered at least four concussions since 2014 and played in a mere 27 of a possible 48 games from 2014 to 2016.
Despite the 49ers’ complete 180-degree turnaround on offense, both Garcon and Goodwin are pretty darn cheap. Garcon checks in as the WR55 and the 122nd overall player, while Goodwin is the WR53 and 111th overall player. I’d side with Garcon in PPR formats, but regardless of which one you prefer, both 49ers wideouts make for pretty good buys this off-season.
T.Y. Hilton, WR IND
Hilton predictably struggled last season sans Andrew Luck, but as long as Luck is healthy (which isn’t a given), Hilton should be in for better seasons over the next few years.
Currently the WR20 and 37th overall player, Hilton’s price has dropped quite a bit over the last 12 months. He was the WR9 and 12th overall player in March of 2017, and now he’s, on average, an early fourth-round pick in startups. I’d assume a lot of it stems from the fact Hilton was the PPR WR27 last year, and some people are still likely wary of Luck’s shoulder. But Luck is the QB7 right now, so there doesn’t seem to be too much trepidation with his health.
Are we really that surprised Hilton had a down season with Jacoby Brissett under center? The Colts threw for 4,491 yards and 32 passing touchdowns with Luck in 2016, and those numbers fell to 3,226 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2017. Of course Hilton’s fantasy output was going to suffer without Luck — he went from a pretty darn good quarterback to one of the worst quarterback situations in the league.
But I think you can argue Hilton didn’t have a bad year at all. Actually, I think it was a good season all things considered. He finished with 57 grabs for 966 yards and four touchdowns, accounting for 29.9 percent of the Colts’ receiving yards. Per Russell Clay, Hilton became just the sixth wideout all time to record at least 800 receiving yards in each of his first six seasons, joining a list that includes Keyshawn Johnson, Randy Moss, Gary Clark, Jerry Rice and A.J. Green.
Hilton is a proven producer with a safe floor who is locked into a high-volume role. He was the PPR WR5 in 2016, and he was the WR22 and WR12 the two years before that.
The worry here is that Luck may never be healthy again, and his health is still a mystery, even if Indy is saying there is no doubt Luck will play in 2018. After promising that Luck would be activated from the PUP list before Week 1 of 2017 and then sitting him all year, the Colts have proven we can’t trust their word on his health. But their recent action of trading back in the draft speaks loudly, since one would assume the Colts might have been interested in taking a quarterback third overall if they were thinking Luck may be toast. That may be reading between the lines too much, and there will certainly be some level of concern with Luck’s shoulder until we see him in game action.
Buying Hilton now could be a really slick buy-low acquisition if Luck ends up being the same old Luck. But if that doesn’t happen — if Luck is a shell of himself or (I hate to say it) never comes back — Hilton already proved last year he could at least be a serviceable fantasy option without Luck. There is some downside here, but for me, the huge upside makes it well worth the risk.
Randall Cobb, WR GB
Going into the 2014 off-season, Cobb was viewed as the WR10, per our March ADP from that year, and he ended the 2014 campaign as the PPR WR8, putting together a 91-1,287-12 line in his age-24 campaign. Young, productive and paired with one of the game’s best passers, Cobb was viewed as one of dynasty’s safest assets.
Outside of injury, what could go wrong?
A lot, apparently.
Cobb has missed only four games since the start of the 2014 season, so injuries haven’t been an issue. The problem is, well, he just hasn’t been very good. In the three years since his 1,287-yard, 12-score campaign, he’s totaled 14 touchdowns in 44 games with a single-season high of 829 yards.
It hasn’t been pretty, and his value has — as you’d expect — plummeted.
| Season | March ADP of That Year | Overall PPR Finish |
|---|---|---|
| 2014 | WR10 | WR8 |
| 2015 | WR13 | WR25 |
| 2016 | WR18 | WR45 |
| 2017 | WR33 | WR35 |
| 2018 | WR60 | N/A |
It was a slow drip at first, but the leak has sprung open these past two years. He’s down to the WR60 and 135th overall player right now — as cheap as he’s been in the history of our ADP database, which dates back to 2014.
I mentioned this in another article in this series, but I like the phrase “buy at funerals and sell at birthdays,” and it definitely feels like Cobb’s obituary has been written.
There are some reasons to be optimistic, though. Obviously, the biggest reason is Aaron Rodgers. Not only is Rodgers a superb player who elevates the fantasy prospects of those around him, he’s a quarterback who has peppered his number-two wideout with targets.
As of now, with Jordy Nelson out of town, Cobb is the Packers’ second-best receiver behind Davante Adams. The number-two wideout for Green Bay has averaged 115.7 targets per year in Rodgers’ last three full seasons (2014 to 2016), getting at least 121 targets in two of those campaigns. Green Bay’s depth chart could change in the coming weeks, but there’s a chance Cobb is locked into 100-plus targets for 2018, and that’s a mouth-watering outlook when those targets are coming from a passer the caliber of Rodgers.
Sure, Green Bay signed Jimmy Graham, but Graham is probably more of a red-zone threat than anything else given that he had a mere 57 catches and 520 yards last year — and it’s not like he wasn’t playing with a very good quarterback in 2017.
Another reason to not yet write off Cobb is the fact he’s going into just his age-28 season next fall, so even though it feels like he’s been around forever — and he does have seven years under his belt — he should have some gas left in the tank.
Also, after playing just six games in 2013, Cobb has been able to stay fairly healthy since the start of 2014, missing a mere four total games over the past four seasons.
All that stuff is nice, but at the end of the day, we’re trying too hard if we make this about anything other than being able to get your hands on Rodgers’ number-two wideout for an incredibly cheap price. Maybe the Packers swing a trade for a receiver or take a wideout early in next month’s draft, but considering how far Cobb’s stock has fallen, I think it’s well worth the gamble to take a shot on grabbing a receiver who could be in line for significant targets in what should be a high-powered passing attack.
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- Dynasty Capsule: Indianapolis Colts - January 17, 2019
- 2018 Summer Sleeper: Los Angeles Chargers - July 31, 2018
- Four Receivers to Sell this Off-Season - April 24, 2018
THrows a wrench in my rookie draft cuts…
Have to make cuts in the coming months for my 4 rookie picks and it’s between Jeremy Hill, trevathan, Jordan Matthews, HaHa Clinton-Dix, treadwell, Kroft or ASJ.. I am pretty solid at WR with Michael Thomas, amari, Dez and Devante Adams (can only start 2, superflex and would almost never start a 3rd).. was leaning towards Cole as my 4th cut along with haha, Matthews and either Kroft/ASJ
Always been a ASJ fan and since he “theoretically” put down the bottle I have faith he could be a solid TE1/2 and a great backup for me since I have Gronk. I really was set on jmatt, Cole, and hill but hill love hills talent he flashed early and now in NE you never know… if he gets the early down and goal line work he could be Blount 2.0. I didn’t watch any Cole last year but was hard to not notice his breakout so I scooped him for Brandon Marshall off waivers late.. it’s not too heavy of an IDP and I have Kwon, burfict, Demario Davis so trvathan n haha may be my guys.. decision decisions
Hope either Garcon or Cobb figures it out this year; I had to flex Dez “Diva fronting as a Football Player” Bryant regularly in one league. Not to mention I’m nervous about how Crabtree is going to look in Baltimore with “elite” quarterback play.
Though on Cobb, I’m more worried that a WR behind him showing up then Jimmy Graham. Green Bay seems to be a place where TE’s go off to die.
Very Good piece. Good Series. You say these are 4 WRs to buy, but do not say what to buy them with. For instance is Garcon worth Hurns and rookie 2 or 3? Two rookie 3s? I own Hilton and was thinking of dangling him for trade bait to get another 1st rookie pick and a WR 2/3 or prospect. What is your estimated trade value for the four listed?
Great article. Agree with you on Cobb. Just traded Lee and Brate for him. Classic buy low opportunity especially with Rodgers throwing him the ball. Good minds must think alike!
What is the best way to relate ADP and rookie pick value? Where does the value shift from first round picks to second ect….
My concern on Cole was that even with his excellent late season heroics, he disappeared in the playoffs. It seems Westbrook had taken his spot. Is that the case or was it just the flow of the game? The Pittsburgh game was high scoring, but Cole was MIA. What gives?
I had a lot more written but decided to just go with this. One thing I wanted to point out in reference to Cole is that three long plays (75, 73, 52) represents over 28% of his total yardage over that 10-game stretch. Also, in that ten-game stretch, in half of his games he did not crack 50 yards and did not have more than four receptions in any of those games (although he did have an 8-yard TD in one game). Furthermore, well over half (56%) of his yardage came in a three-game stretch Weeks 14 thru 16. That’s great for the fantasy playoffs by the way, hopefully people did start him and were rewarded. However, what I think we have in Cole is someone who could go either way. Do we have the guy who caught a TD in three straight games and totaled nearly 400 yards in another three-game streak OR do we have the guy who averaged 3 receptions and 36 yards (with 1 TD) in half of those ten games? And you could add into those five games another two in which he averaged 2.5 receptions and 62.5 yards, making it seven games in which he averaged 3 receptions and 44 yards. He had 308 yards in seven games and 393 yards in three games.
Now, for the right price, he could be a real value. I would suggest owners just watch how much you have to pay and temper your expectations.
Thanks for the response, Austan and I agree with you about the value Cole represents. I suspect Cole will be one of those guys who will go into drafts this year as a nearly forgotten, under-the-radar type of player, making him a great value but if his price rises 12 to 15 spots (low 50’s) then I’d back away for the reasons you stated. There’s at least a solid 50 players I would feel more comfortable with than Cole.
I’m not a J.Graham owner, (anymore). But i believe we will see a reemergence of Graham. Seattle did not use that guy right. Seemed he never ran a route longer than 5 or 10yd outs, in New Orleans he was always hitting the middle seams for 25- 30yd chunks. I can easily see Rodgers loving him!
