2018 Rookie Profile: DJ Moore, WR Maryland
The wide receiver position has taken a beating over the last two seasons. But the general consensus is that the 2018 class will not be its savior. There are few prospects who look like traditional leading receivers or players we can easily project for successful (fantasy) NFL careers. This should put more emphasis on the ones that we can do that for. DJ Moore is one of the few, and in the right landing spot he could easily provide fantasy goodness for years to come.
The Stats
Statistics from sports-reference.com.
While his early counting stats don’t look spectacular, he actually accounted for more than 17% of Maryland’s receiving yards as an 18-year-old rookie. He owned more than 27% of yards in his sophomore year at age 19 as well. Moore was a vital part of the team from the moment he stepped on the field and ended his time there by accounting for 53% of the team’s total yards as a Junior. He also produced 20%, 40% and 53% of the team’s touchdowns by year.
Moore’s market share of yards places him in an elite level of college prospects. His early success aligns him with the most statistically-relevant sample of successful NFL receivers, out-scoring (by 10%) the average age relative market share for NFL receivers with 150-point PPR seasons since 2008.
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The Film
Moore was used in a variety of ways at the college level. When you have an elite player land on your team they tend to suck up all opportunity. This is also why market share has been useful for predicting NFL success. On the field, Moore looks athletic and dynamic in space. He has a decent awareness of the field and players around him in multiple situations. Despite being used behind the line of scrimmage often, he also demonstrated the ability to track the ball over his shoulder when going deep, and to win contested catches.
We can also see him adjusting to inaccurate passes, with impressive athleticism adding to his catch radius. Outside of the catch point, Moore looks tough and ready for contact with the ball in his hands. He’s hard to bring down and willing to search for extra yards after the catch on every play.
While he has been dinged for his versatility – suggesting he is not a typical dominant wide receiver – I just don’t see it. Instead, I see a player who excels at every task given to him on the field. The coaches recognized him as talented enough that they wanted him involved in any and all game situations.
Measurables
According to Mock Draftable, Moore’s athletics traits were most comparable to the likes of Cordarrelle Patterson – one of the best players in the open field the NFL has seen, Andre Johnson – a significant NFL producer, and the still-sleeping Dynasty hopeful – Chris Godwin.
He tested even better than expected with his 83rd-percentile 40-yard dash time. Both his broad and vertical jumps were over the 90th percentile. He confirmed both his catch rate and agility with combine testing.
Moore was a clear winner at the 2018 NFL Combine. Once again, he did everything he could do to demonstrate his potential at the NFL level. But because he measures only 6’0″ tall and weighs 210 pounds, some may continue to suggest he isn’t big enough to be a true dominant receiver at the NFL Level. Meanwhile, three of the top five dynasty wide receivers ranked on DLF right now measure within an inch and four pounds of Moore: DeAndre Hopkins (6’1″ and 214 lbs), or are smaller: Odell Beckham and Antonio Brown.
Dynasty Value
Right now, Moore is rising up draft boards, currently him ninth among rookies. But he has yet to convince everyone he is an easy first-round talent. His March ADP is 68.5, still several spots behind the less athletic and older Calvin Ridley. He’s ahead of young proven payers like Sterling Shepard (March ADP of 72.0) and behind those like Golden Tate (March ADP of 63.0.)
Conclusion
In a class that is generally considered weak, the fact a wide receiver who hits so many of the most predictive marks for NFL success is not the consensus number one suggests he is going to continue to be a value.
DJ Moore did most everything he could have done to prove his quality at the college level. He could not have improved his value at the combine any more than he did. He could not have owned more of his college team’s production with taking over at quarterback. He’s athletic, was a dominant producer, and is likely to be drafted high in the 2018 NFL draft.
Don’t fear the recent wide receiver slump. Feed into it. Take advantage of the disappointment in the position, misconceptions over size, and a lack of awareness of the value of age-relative production. Target Moore as soon as the very tippy top of this running back class has left the board as the WR1.
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