The Tipping Point: When to Take IDPs in Rookie Drafts

Tom Kislingbury

One of the most common questions that comes up this time of the year for those of us who indulge in IDP leagues is “when should I start taking IDP rookies?”

IDP leagues are all about balance and identifying how you can win with multiple avenues to success available. Given that the rookie draft is the single most meaningful opportunity to improve your team, it’s imperative that you make better decisions than your teammates. That doesn’t mean you have to never make any mistakes and be risk-averse – it just means that if you understand the true landscape of your league you should be able to do better than your opponents over time.

The common belief is that IDPs should start coming off the board sometime in the middle of the second round. That’s obviously a huge generalization, but it is repeated enough to be widely believed. In this article, I wanted to try and figure out if that’s a good idea or not.

A couple of disclaimers first:

  • IDP leagues are hugely variable. IDPs carry a very different weight in a league that starts 13 of them each week to a league where three start per team.
  • I’m assuming rookie drafts run for seven rounds here. Obviously, this isn’t the case for every league.

Establishing value

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As previous readers know, I like to assess leagues in terms of value. We all know that points are an imperfect measure because they don’t indicate scarcity. If you play in a league where CBs get 30 points per tackle they’ll all score a ton of points. But because there will still be many of them available on waivers there’s not much point in heavily investing in them. So I like to build my leagues out in terms of value against the minimum starter. I’m sure that’s self-explanatory, but just to be clear by that I mean “how many points does a player score against the bottom starter in that league?”

Here’s an example:

  • Assume a 12-team league
  • Assume that each team can start just one quarterback each week.
  • The top QB (Tom Brady) in this league scored 410 points for the 2017 season.
  • The number 12 QB (Blake Bortles) scored 300 points.
  • The “value” of Brady is 110 points. Or 6.9 points per week.

Let’s look at another example:

  • Assume a 12-team league
  • Assume that each team can start four linebackers per week (including a flex spot).
  • The top LB (Demario Davis) in this league scored 285 points for the 2017 season.
  • The number 48 LB (Bruce Irvin) scored 160 points.
  • The “value” of Davis is 125 points. Or 7.8 points per week.

So in that example even though Brady scored 125 more points than Davis he was less valuable. Because Brady’s weekly replacement would be closer to his production than Davis’ stand-in.

We instinctively know this already. This is why we value RBs more highly than WRs. If your receiver gets hurt you can probably find another one because there are many that put up some points. If your starting RB is hurt then it’s often season over because it’s so hard to find a replacement.

When you build that calculation out for every player at every position in a league, you get a good idea of how much value they really provide. The actual players change from season to season but the overall distribution of player production is fairly constant.

This is a fundamental change in the way we should be thinking about rookie drafts. Many dynasty players think in terms of “best player available” and simply drafting talent. We should all be thinking about which positions carry the most scarcity (and therefore value) and therefore offer the most value if the player manages to be a hit.

General positional value

This is ground I’ve covered many times before but it’s worth recapping here:

There is no such thing as a “balanced” league. The drop-off in production and scarcity is fundamentally different between positions. So the value of those positions is different. It doesn’t matter what your scoring settings are. Some positions will drop off quicker than others. The actual gradient does vary by league but for the sake of universal comparison, let’s split it into three groups.

High-value positions

Running back

This is the top position in almost any league. There are a handful of elite scorers who can be league winners, around 15-20 good options, and a rapid drop-off to players who are a weakness to your team if you have to start them.

Defensive end

There are fewer than 12 top-level DEs in any given season. So some teams are always going to miss out and be in a hole. Not having one doesn’t mean you will lose every game but it does mean you’ll always have to make those points up elsewhere.

Mid-value positions

Wide receiver

Top end WRs are great fun to own. But in an era dominated by offenses run out of the shotgun and heavily influenced by spread concepts, they’re not a scarce resource. 64 WRs in 2017 produced more than 500 receiving yards. Although stars are rare, it’s fairly easy to find production.

Tight end

As all fantasy players know, there is a very small top tier. At the moment it’s just three players. Any team that can start one of those players has a regular advantage over the teams who cannot. The tier below that is long and flat so it’s fairly easy to have an acceptable tight end.

Quarterback

In most leagues, QBs score more points than other positions. But production is a gentle gradient. This is common knowledge and exactly why smart fantasy players know that waiting on QB is the smart thing to do. Obviously, in superflex or 2QB leagues, it’s a more important position, which demonstrates how more starters can make a position more valuable.

Defensive tackle

This is in leagues with a DT premium. In those, the position is similar to TE. There are a handful of elite options who offer a weekly benefit to their owners but a long tail of mediocre talent who can be found easily.

Low-value positions

Cornerback

NFL teams play around two-thirds of their snaps with five defensive backs on the field. So we can assume that each team has two and a half corners that play most snaps. That’s immediately 80 corners who have significant opportunities. It’s very rare for an IDP league to be able to start anywhere near that level, so there are always plentiful options available.

Safety

Following on from the point above, there are simply more available productive safeties than needed. This is a textbook case of supply outstripping demand.

Kicker

Kickers have no value. It should essentially be called “random small point modifier”. The lack of value or strategy is why so many leagues have simply removed the position.

League settings and roster size

So we know that we’re looking for value and scarcity over points. And we know that some positions don’t offer up much potential for stars. The next step is to take account of your own particular league settings.

Me being me, I do this by charting data. I work out the average scoring rank by position and then compare that to the lowest ranked starter at each position. Here’s an example from the DLF staff IDP league:

dlf idp value 2

Even though the scoring is set to be fairly equal, there are clear differences in positional value here. The benefit of the top RBs is way above any other position. WRs and TEs aren’t that far behind. You can clearly see that the top players at those three positions are way ahead of the other options and that makes them extremely valuable. This is what we all know anyway. The teams that own the likes of Todd Gurley, Antonio Brown, and Rob Gronkowski tend to do well.

But you can also see a few more things. DEs are by far the most valuable position on the defensive side of the ball. LBs carry very little value. QBs are right down the bottom with defensive backs.

What does that mean for rookie drafts?

I mentioned earlier that the IDP community tends to think IDPs should come off the board sometime in the second or third round. Generally, when that does happen, LBs start being selected first. I’d argue that it should be later and also that DEs should be taken before LBs.

Taking a second or third round RB seems like a long shot when you do it. And it is. But the benefits of it paying off are absolutely huge. In the last few seasons, we’ve seen Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, Jordan Howard and David Johnson all pay off like that. Compare that to the benefit of securing the likes of Jarrad Davis, Haason Reddick, Jamal Adams, Myles Jack or Darron Lee. Even an LB or safety that hits does not offer much of a weekly advantage. Of course, it means that you also miss out on the Reuben Fosters of this world but that’s an easy choice for me. Here are some basic draft rules to follow:

  • In the first round, you should only ever take an RB or a WR. Or a QB in a league that allows you to start two.
  • In round two you should do exactly the same. Even if it feels like you’re getting bad value.
  • In round three, you should take any remaining RB or WR who was drafted in the top half of the draft. If there are none left, you can look at a TE or a DE that has fallen into a starting role.
  • In rounds four, you should be looking for a DE, TE or maybe a QB who will likely start fairly soon. If no options are available you can look at LBs.
  • After round four you should follow your dreams. Any picks are unlikely to work out well anyway.
  • Never draft a corner or a tackle. Just say no.
  • There will still be some players left who your league-mates like on the board in the late stages. Make it known that you’ll trade any picks here for a pick a round higher in a year’s time. Take any such deal you are offered.

Adapting the approach to reality

This is all very well in an academic setting. It all seems so sensible and clear. But in real drafts in real leagues, you have burning needs at certain positions and your league-mates behave weirdly and nothing goes how you thought it would.

It doesn’t matter.

Just stick to the plan. We habitually overrate our ability to predict everything about football. And right at the top of things we predict badly is how incoming rookies will perform. You will make mistakes in evaluations. So will I. So will everyone. Winning dynasty leagues by correctly identifying “good” players is not really a very realistic route to success. Every year we all have strong feelings about players who totally fizzle out. In a prediction game certainty is the enemy. We need to stay smart and not get caught up with hunches and gut feelings.

So I know it can hurt to sit and watch your favorite player slide by. We felt that way last season with David Njoku but Kareem Hunt was the smart pick. We felt it with Reuben Foster when we should have been taking Cooper Kupp instead. It’s not to say that mistakes will not be made. I would advocate taking C.J. Prosise over Joey Bosa every time. But if you prioritize picks that have the higher potential benefit, you’ll do better in the long run.

So to finish up, the question that is always asked is “when should you start taking IDPs in rookie drafts?” The answer for me is; “much later than you think”.

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tom kislingbury