Another month of ADP is in the books, and with it comes the opportunity for owners to adjust their player valuations accordingly. DLF’s ADP tool is one of the widest spread sources of Average Draft Position amongst the dynasty community. Last month, I developed a new way of looking at ADP and introduced different ways the various types of owners in your leagues could view player values.
This concept, appropriately entitled Time-Weighted ADP, attempts to generate different player values dependent on how quickly owners are adaptive to change. If Time-Weighted ADP doesn’t sound familiar to you, please check out my Introduction to Time-Weighted ADP article from last month! As a quick refresher, I outlined five owner types in the introductory article. Each had a different appetite for changes in player valuation. They are, in order from least adaptive to most adaptive, Ultra Conservative, Conservative, Moderate, Aggressive, and Ultra Aggressive.
Last month, I wanted to introduce the topic, detail the methodology used, and provide an overall top 200 players and their Time-Weighted ADP by owner bucket. In this and future editions of Time-Weighted ADP, I want to provide both an updated top 200 players and Time-Weighted ADP, as well as highlight potential buys and sells for Ultra Conservative/Conservative, Moderate, and Aggressive/Ultra Aggressive owners. You can find the updated table at the end of the article.
Let’s get to the buys and sells. Since free agency happened after March ADP, I tried to stay away from players heavily affected by free agency in this edition. Enjoy!
Buy: Amari Cooper, WR OAK
Cooper has been a coveted asset in dynasty leagues ever since he declared for the draft back in 2015. A consensus top two rookie pick that year, Cooper’s ADP started off at 28.7 the very first month he was able to be drafted by dynasty players. As quickly as May 2015, right after the NFL draft, he was already a top two round startup pick with an ADP of 21.5. Cooper’s ADP shot up once again after a strong start to his rookie season, and he found himself in the first round of ADP by October that same year.
Everyone knows about Cooper’s struggles in 2017. He was impossible to start at times given his floor of seemingly 0 points in any given week. He managed to finish as a top-40 fantasy wide receiver, but only because of a huge 40-point game he had (likely on your bench) in the middle of the year. People have started to lose faith in Amari as an elite dynasty asset, and it’s been shown in his ADP.
From the time Cooper got into the top ten overall in ADP, he stayed there for 25 consecutive months with a peak of 3.25! At this point in time, his ADP has been at 15 or above for four straight months. With a March ADP of 16.33, Cooper represents a value to Conservative dynasty owners, many of whom may still value Cooper as a top 12 dynasty asset.