Time-Weighted ADP: Buys and Sells, March 2018

Another month of ADP is in the books, and with it comes the opportunity for owners to adjust their player valuations accordingly. DLF’s ADP tool is one of the widest spread sources of Average Draft Position amongst the dynasty community. Last month, I developed a new way of looking at ADP and introduced different ways the various types of owners in your leagues could view player values.

This concept, appropriately entitled Time-Weighted ADP, attempts to generate different player values dependent on how quickly owners are adaptive to change. If Time-Weighted ADP doesn’t sound familiar to you, please check out my Introduction to Time-Weighted ADP article from last month! As a quick refresher, I outlined five owner types in the introductory article. Each had a different appetite for changes in player valuation. They are, in order from least adaptive to most adaptive, Ultra Conservative, Conservative, Moderate, Aggressive, and Ultra Aggressive.

Last month, I wanted to introduce the topic, detail the methodology used, and provide an overall top 200 players and their Time-Weighted ADP by owner bucket. In this and future editions of Time-Weighted ADP, I want to provide both an updated top 200 players and Time-Weighted ADP, as well as highlight potential buys and sells for Ultra Conservative/Conservative, Moderate, and Aggressive/Ultra Aggressive owners. You can find the updated table at the end of the article.

Let’s get to the buys and sells. Since free agency happened after March ADP, I tried to stay away from players heavily affected by free agency in this edition. Enjoy!

Ultra-Conservative/Conservative

Buy: Amari Cooper, WR OAK

Cooper has been a coveted asset in dynasty leagues ever since he declared for the draft back in 2015. A consensus top two rookie pick that year, Cooper’s ADP started off at 28.7 the very first month he was able to be drafted by dynasty players. As quickly as May 2015, right after the NFL draft, he was already a top two round startup pick with an ADP of 21.5. Cooper’s ADP shot up once again after a strong start to his rookie season, and he found himself in the first round of ADP by October that same year.

Everyone knows about Cooper’s struggles in 2017. He was impossible to start at times given his floor of seemingly 0 points in any given week. He managed to finish as a top-40 fantasy wide receiver, but only because of a huge 40-point game he had (likely on your bench) in the middle of the year. People have started to lose faith in Amari as an elite dynasty asset, and it’s been shown in his ADP.

From the time Cooper got into the top ten overall in ADP, he stayed there for 25 consecutive months with a peak of 3.25! At this point in time, his ADP has been at 15 or above for four straight months. With a March ADP of 16.33, Cooper represents a value to Conservative dynasty owners, many of whom may still value Cooper as a top 12 dynasty asset.

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Sell: Alvin Kamara, RB NO

Kamara was truly a special player as a rookie in 2017 and, quite frankly, took the dynasty landscape by storm. In the first drafts Kamara was drafted in last February, he had an ADP of 104.5, which is fairly average for a prospect considered to be a mid/late first round rookie pick. He slowly crept up the ADP boards, rising to 72.3 right before the season began.

The PPR RB3 on the season then saw his ADP climb significantly every month thereafter until reaching its steady-state of roughly 11 overall, where it’s been each of the past three months. It feels like Kamara has been considered an elite dynasty asset for quite some time, but his ADP broke 40 for the first time back in November, when it jumped all the way to 15.

Selling Alvin Kamara isn’t about him not being a good player, nor is it necessarily about efficiency. Rather, the Conservative dynasty owners put more value than others on pre-season valuations as well as ADP from December on. Kamara wasn’t viewed in the same company as guys like Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette coming into the season. The difference between them is that Cook and Fournette proved their valuations to be correct, whereas Kamara exceeded expectations. One could look to sell Kamara for Cook plus an additional piece if leaning more towards the Conservative group on Kamara.

Moderate

Buy: Kenny Golladay, WR DET

Kenny G has had a bit of a roller coaster of value since he came into the league this past year. Golladay came from completely off the radar, not even registering an ADP until after the NFL draft in May 2017 when most rookies started getting drafted in February. A surprise selection by the Detroit Lions in the third round started putting him on the radar for many dynasty owners.

Golladay saw his ADP steadily climb with positive reports coming out of training camp and a clear opportunity on the Lion’s depth chart. An even stronger showing in the preseason and start to the NFL season pushed the first-year wide receiver’s ADP all the way up to 75.8 as recently as January 2018.

Over the last few months, Golladay’s ADP has begun to dip likely due to the incoming rookie class and dynasty owners taking his age, at 24 years old, into account as a second-year player. Over his first season, Golladay proved he could play at an NFL level and should provide a value to owners who are placing more emphasis on his season-long value.

Sell: Kenyan Drake, RB MIA

Kenyan Drake has seen one of the largest spikes in ADP for one month in recent memory. Before quickly rising over 90 spots in January, Drake had 17 straight months of an ADP greater than 150 overall including a stretch of nine months greater than 200 overall. Drake has steadily held his ADP of 60 over the past few months, indicating that dynasty owners believe Drake’s breakout was no fluke.

What concerns the Moderate dynasty owner isn’t that Drake has gained value from 150 overall to 60 overall, it’s the speed at which he’s done so: literally only taking one month. He’s being valued the same as Jay Ajayi, a guy who has proven over a much larger sample that he can be a starting NFL back. This could absolutely be warranted, but some owners may be hesitant to put him on that level after only a couple games and an uncertain situation. He’s a sell for these more Moderate owners.

Aggressive/Ultra Aggressive

Buy: Aaron Jones, RB GB

The second running back drafted by the Green Bay Packers back in last year’s draft, Jones quickly caught steam as the favorite to be the backup to incumbent back Ty Montgomery who had his fair share of hype as well. Flash forward a few weeks into the NFL season, and Jones is taking the NFL by storm. He saw his ADP skyrocket up to around 68 overall on the back on two 100-yard performances in the month of October.

Through a combination of off the field issues and on the field injuries, Jones faded towards the end of the season and his value followed suit. Dropping to as low as 99 overall since his peak, Jones’s ADP bounced back in March up nearly a full round. Given the past value spikes and hype Jones has received, it’s very conceivable his value rises again leading up to the NFL season.

Aggressive dynasty owners could see this rebound in value as a sign of things to come. Jones had fallen down draft boards quite a bit, but could absolutely be in line for a value jump in the near future. Even if they don’t necessarily believe in him long term, the most aggressive dynasty owners could be buying now to flip him later on.

Sell: Julio Jones, WR ATL

This one may seem a little too obvious, as Julio’s value has been a major point of discussion this offseason. A once perennial first-round selection in both dynasty and redraft leagues, his value has taken a hit despite finishing in the top five at the position consistently over the past few years. It goes without saying that the main reason for this is age.

About two years ago, Demaryius Thomas went through pretty much the same exact value dip. Thomas’ March 2016 ADP was 17.67, not very far off from Jones’ current 15.83 ADP. Even more similar to Jones, Thomas has performed at a very above average level each of the past two years, and his value still fell more than 40 spots. Ultra Aggressive dynasty owners are seeing this same trend occur now with Julio and are strongly considering getting out at the current value while they still can.

Wrap Up

I know from personal experience that no two dynasty leagues are the same. I’m currently in three leagues and plan to join two more this off-season, and no owner I’ve interacted with has been the same. You might not agree with everyone else’s player valuations, but that’s what stimulates trades in a healthy league. Don’t be afraid to take a more conservative or aggressive stance on a player you believe in.

In these articles, I hope to provide an objective sense of values that different owners might have about particular players. Time-Weighted ADP, I believe, can be an important tool in facilitating trade ideas and discussions, but it should by no means be the only method of player valuation you should use. To wrap this article up, you can find the top 200 players from March 2018 ADP and their respective Time-Weighted ADPs down below as well as the Range (Highest – Lowest) of value. As always, feel free to find me on Twitter @FFzinger or comment below!

Player	Ultra Conservative T-W ADP	Conservative T-W ADP	Moderate T-W ADP	Aggressive T-W ADP	Ultra Aggressive T-W ADP	Range
Odell Beckham Jr.	1.52	1.55	1.66	2.00	2.20	0.68
DeAndre Hopkins	7.10	5.86	3.86	2.00	2.12	5.10
Todd Gurley	10.90	8.92	5.77	2.33	2.07	8.83
Ezekiel Elliott	6.34	5.86	5.76	5.17	5.12	1.22
Antonio Brown	4.93	5.20	5.43	5.67	5.62	0.74
Mike Evans	4.42	4.55	5.29	6.50	6.68	2.26
Le'Veon Bell	7.15	6.55	6.42	7.00	6.79	0.73
David Johnson	9.28	6.54	6.66	7.83	8.13	2.74
Saquon Barkley	10.14	10.06	9.89	8.33	7.34	2.80
Michael Thomas	16.24	11.99	9.90	9.17	9.40	7.07
Alvin Kamara	43.72	34.67	22.20	11.17	10.96	32.77
Keenan Allen	18.02	16.83	14.86	12.00	11.49	6.53
Kareem Hunt	44.12	32.74	19.86	14.00	14.74	30.12
Julio Jones	8.41	9.96	11.84	15.83	17.13	8.72
Amari Cooper	10.50	12.02	14.26	16.33	16.50	6.00
Dalvin Cook	22.96	20.99	18.27	16.33	16.11	6.84
Davante Adams	37.01	27.37	21.03	16.50	16.61	20.51
Leonard Fournette	18.59	17.80	16.90	17.83	18.18	1.70
Tyreek Hill	58.20	37.36	24.91	19.17	19.28	39.03
AJ Green	13.08	14.67	17.02	21.00	21.53	8.45
Christian McCaffrey	27.98	26.14	24.08	21.67	20.99	6.99
Melvin Gordon	23.81	20.57	20.60	22.00	21.27	3.24
Stefon Diggs	32.58	25.94	23.58	24.00	24.34	9.01
Brandin Cooks	18.80	19.68	21.06	24.33	25.29	6.49
Allen Robinson	20.07	23.04	25.49	25.50	25.56	5.48
Derrius Guice	26.59	26.59	26.60	26.67	26.73	0.14
Devonta Freeman	23.61	22.00	23.61	26.83	26.30	4.83
Joe Mixon	32.08	30.34	28.94	28.50	27.52	4.56
Corey Davis	25.73	26.19	27.16	28.67	28.90	3.17
Jarvis Landry	30.68	31.12	30.71	28.83	29.11	2.29
Travis Kelce	36.63	33.97	32.45	32.00	31.73	4.90
JuJu Smith-Schuster	63.11	56.39	45.27	33.67	32.88	30.24
Derrick Henry	43.70	40.11	36.81	34.00	33.83	9.87
Rob Gronkowski	23.60	26.76	29.95	34.83	34.03	11.23
Adam Thielen	97.89	66.81	44.29	35.17	36.11	62.72
TY Hilton	23.44	26.26	30.69	36.67	37.07	13.63
Alshon Jeffery	30.29	33.94	36.33	36.67	36.95	6.67
Jordan Howard	41.88	35.90	35.60	38.00	37.41	6.28
Evan Engram	66.80	59.16	48.89	40.00	39.73	27.08
Doug Baldwin	39.96	34.54	35.77	41.17	42.16	7.62
Nick Chubb	46.37	46.15	45.69	41.50	38.54	7.84
Sammy Watkins	24.46	28.91	34.23	42.50	44.38	19.91
Zach Ertz	69.56	59.14	47.91	43.50	44.92	26.06
Sony Michel	44.74	44.73	44.70	44.50	44.33	0.40
Josh Gordon	109.37	96.85	70.93	45.50	46.55	63.87
Carson Wentz	99.76	80.16	59.50	48.00	47.78	51.98
Aaron Rodgers	40.83	41.98	44.76	48.83	48.34	8.00
Mark Ingram	57.58	56.74	53.49	49.50	47.70	9.88
Devin Funchess	99.43	88.34	68.09	50.83	49.31	50.12
Russell Wilson	54.78	54.06	52.78	50.83	49.17	5.62
Will Fuller	80.19	75.01	64.38	52.83	51.97	28.22
Courtland Sutton	50.26	50.39	50.67	53.17	55.40	5.14
LeSean McCoy	47.64	48.07	51.84	53.83	49.48	6.19
Carlos Hyde	50.12	49.85	50.08	54.67	55.89	6.04
Demaryius Thomas	41.21	47.55	53.54	55.00	51.29	13.79
Cooper Kupp	97.94	85.68	69.59	57.00	55.88	42.06
Ronald Jones	59.30	59.27	59.21	58.67	58.23	1.06
Deshaun Watson	107.05	92.05	72.69	59.17	57.59	49.46
Hunter Henry	73.98	67.18	63.01	59.67	58.70	15.27
Marvin Jones	87.11	81.26	71.55	60.50	61.24	26.61
Dez Bryant	30.42	38.29	48.01	61.67	62.65	32.22
Tevin Coleman	66.40	62.59	61.25	62.00	61.89	5.16
Golden Tate	56.51	56.75	57.98	63.00	63.92	7.41
James Washington	64.06	64.04	64.01	63.67	63.40	0.67
Jay Ajayi	49.85	47.40	52.19	65.50	67.82	20.43
Kenyan Drake	156.54	137.46	105.02	66.17	66.12	90.43
Calvin Ridley	65.16	65.23	65.35	66.50	67.47	2.31
DJ Moore	78.33	77.88	76.94	68.50	62.70	15.63
Rashaad Penny	73.20	73.10	72.89	71.00	69.51	3.70
Sterling Shepard	70.83	72.65	71.21	72.00	75.55	4.71
Robert Woods	145.52	122.94	96.66	72.17	73.80	73.35
Mike Williams	62.53	65.09	68.05	72.33	73.24	10.71
OJ Howard	110.47	86.69	74.59	72.50	75.00	37.97
Devante Parker	49.42	54.85	61.38	73.17	73.34	23.92
Cam Newton	71.51	76.72	78.01	73.17	70.39	7.62
David Njoku	87.43	83.48	78.61	75.17	75.79	12.26
Jimmy Garoppolo	167.92	143.35	113.87	75.33	71.80	96.12
Jamison Crowder	76.21	70.40	72.88	75.67	74.49	5.81
Duke Johnson	87.43	84.14	78.11	76.00	75.67	11.76
Nelson Agholor	136.65	122.07	95.95	82.33	86.36	54.32
Corey Coleman	52.82	59.22	67.25	82.33	85.96	33.14
Tarik Cohen	146.00	127.61	104.40	83.00	79.16	66.84
Lamar Miller	55.79	64.92	75.28	84.50	80.43	28.71
Christian Kirk	89.56	89.35	88.92	85.00	82.00	7.56
Aaron Jones	143.49	126.09	103.48	88.17	84.83	58.66
Alex Collins	168.28	148.19	118.44	89.50	87.43	80.84
Chris Godwin	113.32	107.40	98.73	91.83	94.72	21.49
Dion Lewis	135.12	129.31	113.42	92.17	88.39	46.73
Kenny Golladay	117.37	104.16	90.93	93.17	97.75	26.43
Josh Doctson	70.83	77.18	84.00	93.83	93.50	23.00
D'Onta Foreman	104.00	101.65	98.04	94.00	90.69	13.31
Royce Freeman	113.94	113.06	111.24	94.83	84.23	29.71
Andrew Luck	57.51	67.12	78.53	95.17	94.57	37.66
Martavis Bryant	72.92	75.24	82.27	95.50	96.64	23.72
Jared Goff	156.99	138.15	113.45	96.17	96.68	60.82
Michael Crabtree	70.56	72.42	80.69	97.17	98.60	28.05
Jordy Nelson	53.40	63.96	78.89	97.83	93.99	44.43
Kerryon Johnson	101.17	101.11	100.98	99.83	98.90	2.27
Larry Fitzgerald	107.67	110.07	111.95	102.33	96.11	15.84
Equanimeous St Brown	106.40	106.32	106.15	104.67	103.48	2.92
Chris Thompson	151.04	131.54	112.59	105.67	108.42	45.37
Marcus Mariota	88.93	90.51	97.52	106.83	103.11	17.90
Greg Olsen	91.07	98.35	105.70	107.00	104.86	15.93
Jerick McKinnon	144.48	141.06	125.95	107.83	105.90	38.58
Cameron Meredith	115.83	103.47	103.31	108.17	106.92	12.53
John Kelly	118.02	117.58	116.67	108.50	102.51	15.51
Marlon Mack	125.23	114.95	105.06	109.50	111.82	20.17
Chris Carson	166.86	152.86	135.40	109.50	98.27	68.59
Kelvin Benjamin	66.05	76.75	89.31	110.50	111.69	45.64
George Kittle	172.62	157.55	136.58	111.17	109.08	63.53
Marquise Goodwin	198.44	176.32	147.97	111.17	106.07	92.37
Kyle Rudolph	120.65	111.64	108.78	113.83	114.05	11.87
Isaiah Crowell	89.15	91.73	101.19	116.17	116.06	27.02
Patrick Mahomes	174.49	153.20	133.92	118.17	118.90	56.32
Dede Westbrook	148.91	138.22	123.58	118.17	117.14	31.77
Jimmy Graham	97.28	99.43	104.57	118.67	121.71	24.43
Jack Doyle	150.97	133.97	125.10	119.33	113.82	37.14
Jameis Winston	86.97	92.33	102.23	119.83	123.61	36.64
Dak Prescott	111.51	104.49	104.86	122.00	124.55	20.05
Pierre Garcon	134.46	127.01	124.73	122.00	121.40	13.06
Kirk Cousins	127.45	121.02	119.93	122.50	122.95	7.52
Matthew Stafford	128.65	125.91	123.77	122.83	123.45	5.82
Kenny Stills	153.89	146.49	137.01	123.33	121.71	32.18
Kalen Ballage	131.20	131.10	130.89	129.00	127.48	3.72
Eric Ebron	119.35	126.06	130.74	129.50	129.28	11.39
Samaje Perine	110.61	114.72	121.52	129.50	125.14	18.89
CJ Anderson	86.64	97.36	110.10	129.67	131.56	44.92
Jordan Reed	77.21	87.86	104.31	129.83	134.86	57.66
Jamaal Williams	138.49	136.25	132.87	131.00	130.56	7.93
Emmanuel Sanders	81.42	92.57	107.11	131.17	134.68	53.26
Derek Carr	104.63	112.17	124.79	134.00	129.63	29.37
Robby Anderson	157.99	137.29	122.01	134.17	138.05	35.97
Donte Moncrief	74.80	92.06	112.32	134.33	134.95	60.14
Randall Cobb	76.78	92.20	108.40	134.67	138.61	61.83
Julian Edelman	105.51	119.14	129.68	136.67	135.36	31.16
Marqise Lee	143.31	133.39	128.02	137.00	142.79	15.28
Auden Tate	125.59	126.24	127.58	139.67	151.32	25.73
Ty Montgomery	105.16	101.45	111.06	140.83	147.60	46.15
Mark Walton	138.49	138.67	139.06	142.50	145.45	6.96
Devontae Booker	155.83	162.02	162.36	143.17	129.60	32.75
Zay Jones	114.24	116.28	122.51	144.17	149.74	35.50
John Ross	104.42	111.34	122.90	146.00	149.86	45.44
Jordan Matthews	91.06	110.23	129.02	146.67	143.89	55.61
Keelan Cole	220.74	211.44	193.44	147.00	145.21	75.53
Dallas Goedert	150.85	150.73	150.49	148.33	146.59	4.26
Michael Gallup	142.80	143.09	143.70	149.17	153.96	11.16
DJ Chark	171.74	170.70	168.55	149.17	135.96	35.78
Chris Hogan	148.67	135.68	129.10	149.67	153.04	23.94
Mark Andrews	143.56	143.87	144.50	150.17	155.15	11.59
Anthony Miller	151.90	151.82	151.65	150.17	148.97	2.93
Mike Gesicki	165.90	165.18	163.70	150.33	140.71	25.19
Bo Scarbrough	182.28	180.83	177.82	150.67	133.28	49.00
Theo Riddick	128.51	133.92	143.70	152.00	150.31	23.49
Adam Shaheen	185.25	178.82	169.83	152.00	146.01	39.25
Delanie Walker	136.59	142.43	149.87	152.33	145.31	15.74
Paul Richardson	169.17	152.73	143.64	154.50	153.84	25.53
Giovani Bernard	122.59	134.25	142.09	155.67	159.77	37.18
Tom Brady	116.04	118.17	127.82	156.17	161.20	45.16
Austin Seferian-Jenkins	168.45	161.50	150.50	156.17	157.41	17.95
Matt Ryan	125.38	131.79	144.08	156.17	150.84	30.79
Rex Burkhead	175.33	161.14	153.11	157.33	152.67	22.66
Drew Brees	123.79	129.49	140.29	159.50	162.20	38.41
Curtis Samuel	131.94	135.01	141.12	161.00	165.89	33.95
Trey Burton	223.02	210.82	192.86	161.00	155.17	67.84
Jonnu Smith	188.51	181.33	172.98	162.50	155.25	33.26
Matt Breida	200.54	183.93	168.62	162.83	159.73	40.82
Tyler Eifert	97.84	115.40	137.11	163.33	165.56	67.71
Austin Hooper	137.75	136.89	142.08	163.67	169.51	32.62
Corey Clement	213.92	200.75	184.07	166.67	166.29	47.63
James White	162.66	157.96	161.83	168.50	161.98	10.54
Quincy Enunwa	166.43	164.36	167.10	170.33	170.33	5.97
Mitch Trubisky	195.71	182.40	173.20	170.33	168.59	27.13
Josh Rosen	166.90	167.07	167.43	170.67	173.42	6.53
Nyheim Hines	197.33	196.10	193.56	170.67	155.15	42.18
Terrelle Pryor	117.09	123.79	148.41	170.83	164.98	53.74
DeMarco Murray	87.88	103.07	126.63	171.67	182.59	94.71
Baker Mayfield	173.80	173.90	174.11	176.00	177.58	3.79
Rishard Matthews	137.83	141.05	152.40	177.17	176.46	39.34
Ameer Abdullah	100.32	113.62	135.83	179.50	184.24	83.92
Philip Rivers	169.06	175.28	181.26	179.50	175.06	12.20
Wayne Gallman	177.96	177.50	175.90	179.83	181.70	5.80
Tyrell Williams	134.17	137.15	155.06	181.67	180.09	47.50
Lamar Jackson	180.01	180.15	180.43	183.00	185.16	5.15
Mohamed Sanu	172.91	168.99	165.04	186.67	197.27	32.23
Taywan Taylor	166.32	167.86	172.90	190.17	192.16	25.84
Gerald Everett	182.23	179.89	180.09	191.67	193.42	13.54
Marshawn Lynch	177.58	180.39	191.11	191.83	180.18	14.25
Ben Roethlisberger	162.02	174.51	183.72	192.33	195.78	33.77
Elijah McGuire	201.85	197.11	191.55	193.00	192.61	10.29
Deon Cain	189.14	189.38	189.87	194.33	198.14	9.00
Bilal Powell	153.66	158.79	175.21	194.33	187.03	40.67
Alex Smith	211.44	203.78	197.25	196.33	193.47	17.97
TJ Yeldon	161.50	180.26	190.40	196.83	195.95	35.33
Kenneth Dixon	140.79	156.58	173.05	201.67	208.94	68.15
Allen Lazard	210.64	210.23	209.40	201.83	195.96	14.67
Tyler Lockett	124.84	144.80	167.47	202.17	204.73	79.90
Sam Darnold	195.95	196.30	197.02	203.50	209.13	13.18
James Conner	159.28	161.23	168.89	203.83	209.89	50.61
Laquon Treadwell	129.37	149.72	169.83	204.67	213.95	84.58
Trent Taylor	221.24	216.42	210.28	204.83	200.72	20.52

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