Another month of ADP is in the books, and with it comes the opportunity for owners to adjust their player valuations accordingly. DLF’s ADP tool is one of the widest spread sources of Average Draft Position amongst the dynasty community. Last month, I developed a new way of looking at ADP and introduced different ways the various types of owners in your leagues could view player values.
This concept, appropriately entitled Time-Weighted ADP, attempts to generate different player values dependent on how quickly owners are adaptive to change. If Time-Weighted ADP doesn’t sound familiar to you, please check out my Introduction to Time-Weighted ADP article from last month! As a quick refresher, I outlined five owner types in the introductory article. Each had a different appetite for changes in player valuation. They are, in order from least adaptive to most adaptive, Ultra Conservative, Conservative, Moderate, Aggressive, and Ultra Aggressive.
Last month, I wanted to introduce the topic, detail the methodology used, and provide an overall top 200 players and their Time-Weighted ADP by owner bucket. In this and future editions of Time-Weighted ADP, I want to provide both an updated top 200 players and Time-Weighted ADP, as well as highlight potential buys and sells for Ultra Conservative/Conservative, Moderate, and Aggressive/Ultra Aggressive owners. You can find the updated table at the end of the article.
Let’s get to the buys and sells. Since free agency happened after March ADP, I tried to stay away from players heavily affected by free agency in this edition. Enjoy!
Buy: Amari Cooper, WR OAK
Cooper has been a coveted asset in dynasty leagues ever since he declared for the draft back in 2015. A consensus top two rookie pick that year, Cooper’s ADP started off at 28.7 the very first month he was able to be drafted by dynasty players. As quickly as May 2015, right after the NFL draft, he was already a top two round startup pick with an ADP of 21.5. Cooper’s ADP shot up once again after a strong start to his rookie season, and he found himself in the first round of ADP by October that same year.
Everyone knows about Cooper’s struggles in 2017. He was impossible to start at times given his floor of seemingly 0 points in any given week. He managed to finish as a top-40 fantasy wide receiver, but only because of a huge 40-point game he had (likely on your bench) in the middle of the year. People have started to lose faith in Amari as an elite dynasty asset, and it’s been shown in his ADP.
From the time Cooper got into the top ten overall in ADP, he stayed there for 25 consecutive months with a peak of 3.25! At this point in time, his ADP has been at 15 or above for four straight months. With a March ADP of 16.33, Cooper represents a value to Conservative dynasty owners, many of whom may still value Cooper as a top 12 dynasty asset.
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Sell: Alvin Kamara, RB NO
Kamara was truly a special player as a rookie in 2017 and, quite frankly, took the dynasty landscape by storm. In the first drafts Kamara was drafted in last February, he had an ADP of 104.5, which is fairly average for a prospect considered to be a mid/late first round rookie pick. He slowly crept up the ADP boards, rising to 72.3 right before the season began.
The PPR RB3 on the season then saw his ADP climb significantly every month thereafter until reaching its steady-state of roughly 11 overall, where it’s been each of the past three months. It feels like Kamara has been considered an elite dynasty asset for quite some time, but his ADP broke 40 for the first time back in November, when it jumped all the way to 15.
Selling Alvin Kamara isn’t about him not being a good player, nor is it necessarily about efficiency. Rather, the Conservative dynasty owners put more value than others on pre-season valuations as well as ADP from December on. Kamara wasn’t viewed in the same company as guys like Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette coming into the season. The difference between them is that Cook and Fournette proved their valuations to be correct, whereas Kamara exceeded expectations. One could look to sell Kamara for Cook plus an additional piece if leaning more towards the Conservative group on Kamara.
Buy: Kenny Golladay, WR DET
Kenny G has had a bit of a roller coaster of value since he came into the league this past year. Golladay came from completely off the radar, not even registering an ADP until after the NFL draft in May 2017 when most rookies started getting drafted in February. A surprise selection by the Detroit Lions in the third round started putting him on the radar for many dynasty owners.
Golladay saw his ADP steadily climb with positive reports coming out of training camp and a clear opportunity on the Lion’s depth chart. An even stronger showing in the preseason and start to the NFL season pushed the first-year wide receiver’s ADP all the way up to 75.8 as recently as January 2018.
Over the last few months, Golladay’s ADP has begun to dip likely due to the incoming rookie class and dynasty owners taking his age, at 24 years old, into account as a second-year player. Over his first season, Golladay proved he could play at an NFL level and should provide a value to owners who are placing more emphasis on his season-long value.
Sell: Kenyan Drake, RB MIA
Kenyan Drake has seen one of the largest spikes in ADP for one month in recent memory. Before quickly rising over 90 spots in January, Drake had 17 straight months of an ADP greater than 150 overall including a stretch of nine months greater than 200 overall. Drake has steadily held his ADP of 60 over the past few months, indicating that dynasty owners believe Drake’s breakout was no fluke.
What concerns the Moderate dynasty owner isn’t that Drake has gained value from 150 overall to 60 overall, it’s the speed at which he’s done so: literally only taking one month. He’s being valued the same as Jay Ajayi, a guy who has proven over a much larger sample that he can be a starting NFL back. This could absolutely be warranted, but some owners may be hesitant to put him on that level after only a couple games and an uncertain situation. He’s a sell for these more Moderate owners.
Buy: Aaron Jones, RB GB
The second running back drafted by the Green Bay Packers back in last year’s draft, Jones quickly caught steam as the favorite to be the backup to incumbent back Ty Montgomery who had his fair share of hype as well. Flash forward a few weeks into the NFL season, and Jones is taking the NFL by storm. He saw his ADP skyrocket up to around 68 overall on the back on two 100-yard performances in the month of October.
Through a combination of off the field issues and on the field injuries, Jones faded towards the end of the season and his value followed suit. Dropping to as low as 99 overall since his peak, Jones’s ADP bounced back in March up nearly a full round. Given the past value spikes and hype Jones has received, it’s very conceivable his value rises again leading up to the NFL season.
Aggressive dynasty owners could see this rebound in value as a sign of things to come. Jones had fallen down draft boards quite a bit, but could absolutely be in line for a value jump in the near future. Even if they don’t necessarily believe in him long term, the most aggressive dynasty owners could be buying now to flip him later on.
Sell: Julio Jones, WR ATL
This one may seem a little too obvious, as Julio’s value has been a major point of discussion this offseason. A once perennial first-round selection in both dynasty and redraft leagues, his value has taken a hit despite finishing in the top five at the position consistently over the past few years. It goes without saying that the main reason for this is age.
About two years ago, Demaryius Thomas went through pretty much the same exact value dip. Thomas’ March 2016 ADP was 17.67, not very far off from Jones’ current 15.83 ADP. Even more similar to Jones, Thomas has performed at a very above average level each of the past two years, and his value still fell more than 40 spots. Ultra Aggressive dynasty owners are seeing this same trend occur now with Julio and are strongly considering getting out at the current value while they still can.
I know from personal experience that no two dynasty leagues are the same. I’m currently in three leagues and plan to join two more this off-season, and no owner I’ve interacted with has been the same. You might not agree with everyone else’s player valuations, but that’s what stimulates trades in a healthy league. Don’t be afraid to take a more conservative or aggressive stance on a player you believe in.
In these articles, I hope to provide an objective sense of values that different owners might have about particular players. Time-Weighted ADP, I believe, can be an important tool in facilitating trade ideas and discussions, but it should by no means be the only method of player valuation you should use. To wrap this article up, you can find the top 200 players from March 2018 ADP and their respective Time-Weighted ADPs down below as well as the Range (Highest – Lowest) of value. As always, feel free to find me on Twitter @FFzinger or comment below!
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